The Offseason State Of The Brewers Farm – Relief Pitching, Part Two

[Harold Hutchison]

The Brewers have a number of credible relief prospects in the upper levels of the minors, but could they also have some high-level talent further down the ladder? Put another way: is a relief pitcher who hasn't yet reached Double A ever a prospect?

Image courtesy of © Dan Powers/USA TODAY NETWORK-Wisconsin / USA TODAY NETWORK

 

The fact is, starting rotations are not the only place where exciting pitching talent can be found in the lower levels of the minors. There are interesting arms in the bullpens, too. Having a constant pipeline of talent can be valuable in more ways than one. The Brewers used prospects to get some potential 2024 help in the last month.

So, which relievers really delivered in the lower minors in 2023? Let’s take a look.

Kaleb Bowman (High-A Wisconsin/Double-A Biloxi)
2-1, 5.94 ERA, 1.38 WHIP, 35 hits, 11 walks, 41 strikeouts over 33 1/3 innings pitched in 29 games
Bowman was a lights-out closer for the Timber Rattlers in Appleton, earning a promotion to Biloxi, where it got a little rougher. Still, for his first season in affiliated baseball, Bowman proved to be a credible pitcher, and an offseason in the pitching lab could build on an 11.1 K/9.

Brannon Jordan (High-A Wisconsin)
3-0, 3.21 ERA, 1.31 WHIP, 31 hits, 13 walks, 39 strikeouts over 33 2/3 innings pitched in 26 games
Jordan was a ninth-round pick in 2021, and has shown strikeout capability. He served as a closer in the past. In 2023, he cut his walk rate down by 37 percent. Similar development in 2024 could make him a real asset for the Brewers’ bullpen.

Justin King (High-A Wisconsin)
1-2, 2.91 ERA, 1.57 WHIP, 23 hits 25 walks, 54 strikeouts over 30 2/3 innings pitched in 28 games
King has seen multiple stints on the injured list since the Brewers signed him as a free agent in June 2022. But when he is on the mound, he has simply dominated, averaging just under 16 strikeouts per nine innings. His big weakness is the free pass. If he can limit the walks, the Crew could have a Josh Hader-type closer on their hands.

Karlos Morales (High-A Wisconsin)
4-6, 4.91 ERA, 1.66 WHIP, 39 hits, 40 walks, 54 strikeouts over 47 2/3 innings pitched in 33 games
Morales proved to be a solid multi-inning reliever in 2023, even though he issued a few more free passes. Morales spent four seasons in the Arizona Complex League, then repeated in Wisconsin in 2023. He averages more than one strikeout per inning. Morales could be a left-handed version of Bryse Wilson, and that can be a very valuable bullpen asset.

Tanner Shears (Low-A Carolina/High-A Wisconsin)
4-2, 1.45 ERA, 1.37 WHIP, 26 hits, 42 walks, 77 strikeouts over 49 2/3 innings pitched in 41 games
Shears was unhittable in 2023, allowing one hit for every two innings pitched. He also racked up 14 strikeouts per nine innings pitched and 10 saves. Shears, a free-agent signee from independent ball, could benefit from an offseason in the pitching lab to help cut down on the walks he issued.

Shane Smith (Low-A Carolina/High-A Wisconsin/Double-A Biloxi)
7-4, 1.96 ERA, 0.96 WHIP, 36 hits, 21 walks, 86 strikeouts over 59 2/3 innings pitched in 38 games
Smith joined with Shears and King to form a lethal 1-2-3 out of the Timber Rattlers bullpen. He even pushed himself to Biloxi for a couple of games, after he lost a lot of time in 2022 due to injuries. Smith, a free-agent signee in 2021, did just about everything one would want from a fireman, notching 10 saves while averaging 13 strikeouts per nine innings.

Chase Costello (Low-A Carolina)
9-4, 3.76 ERA, 1.11 WHIP, 52 hits, 20 walks, 53 strikeouts over 64 2/3 innings pitched in 28 games
Costello, an offseason free-agent pickup who spent 2022 in independent ball, handled a Bryse Wilson-esque long relief role for the Mudcats, averaging over two innings an outing. While he wasn’t overpowering, he limited both hits and walks. Like Wilson, Costello was an effective bridge to the late-inning relief corps.

Gerson Calzadilla (Rookie ACL Brewers/Low-A Carolina)
4-0, 2.11 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, 35 hits, 13 walks, 38 strikeouts over 42 2/3 innings pitched in 18 games
Calzadilla was a terrific multi-inning option for the ACL Brewers in 2023, posting four saves and notching just under one strikeout per inning. He struggled a little in a brief call-up to the Mudcats, but he could be exciting to watch in 2024.

Osbriel Mogollon (Rookie ACL Brewers)
2-3, 3.72 ERA, 1.53 WHIP, 35 hits, 24 walks, 43 strikeouts over 38 2/3 innings pitched in 11 games (five starts)
Mogollon showed he could still punch hitters out, but was a bit more hittable in the Arizona Complex League than he was in the DSL. That said, he cut down the wild pitches and hit batsmen, which compensated somewhat for the increased walk rate. Notably, in the more offense-friendly ACL, he only allowed one home run.

What do you think of these pitchers? Are there others in the low minors you think could break out big-time? Let us know in the comments!

 

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[ClosetBrewerFan]

Jordan was released last August and Karlos Morales is a free agent so no longer in the org. But, Merkel and Brady should be on this list.  

That being said, I'm really excited to see Biloxi's bullpen next year.  I could see S. Smith, Shears, Brady, Merkel, S. Gardner, Yeager, Sam Carlson, R. Smith, and King.  There is a ton of talent there and represents the next wave of relievers knocking on the door to the majors.

[wiguy94]

No Sam Gardner or Yerlin Rodriguez??

[Joseph Zarr]

With all due respect, and in good faith, in the very least when you write these articles please ensure you are including players who are still in the organization. I am writing this because this certainly isn't the first time I've seen this. Having Jordan and Morales showcased (visually) high in this list seems to demonstrate you aren't actually monitoring the Brewers Minor League system, and, yet, you are writing with authority on these players. It's just not a good look. And, this is not a lot to ask.

My two cents.

And, agreed with @wiguy94guys like Gardner (who hit the ground blazing in Australia this winter after a dominant High-A showing) and Rodriguez 'should' be on here. If we're tossing in a Kaleb Bowman - who really struggled mightily at Double-A - one would think usurping that name for a Darrell Thompson and/or Ryan Brady would make quite a bit more sense. That, however, is in the eye of the beholders and can be debated. Who is an who isn't in the system can not. 

I'm also adding the wild card that is 'What are they going to do with RHP Tobias Myers come the start of the 2024 season'? The addendum here: should he make it through the Rule 5 Draft. His heater, by season's end, was electric - touching 97-98 mph. He was utterly dominant out of the bullpen for Rick Sweet in Nashville that last week. I want to see if they keep him in the stables. His profile plays at an elite level out of the Pen if he can maintain that type of trajectory. I'd like to see him get another opportunity as a reliever despite his high punchout abilities as a starter. 

[ClosetBrewerFan]

Since there was no writeup on Merkel and Brady, what do we think of them as prospects?  Both were UDFA in 2022. Merkel is a towering 6-7, 255lbs. I know very little of both other than they had nice years last year.

[Joseph Zarr]

4 minutes ago, ClosetBrewerFan said:

Since there was no writeup on Merkel and Brady, what do we think of them as prospects?  Both were UDFA in 2022. Merkel is a towering 6-7, 255lbs. I know very little of both other than they had nice years last year.

Merkel came on as his season progressed. He became a key 7th inning guy for manager Joe Ayrault and really filled some key innings in their second half surge. At this stage, he relies heavily on his breaking ball arsenal and, at High-A it proved to be a strikeout pitch. It would be nice - with that mammoth frame - to see him add a couple ticks to the velo department.  Is that possible at this stage? I don't know. Like Cameron Wagoner, he became one of my favorite watches in the second half of Wisconsin's season. Double-A is going to be a huge test for him, however, and I wouldn't be surprised if he struggles at first to find how his stuff plays in a more challenging environment.

Brady also relies on off-speed but whereas Merkel has more a 12-6 hammer array (especially given his height) Brady is coming from a lower release point on the hill. He works that slider with aplomb and has a worthy curveball. The heater also touches 95-96 (very occasionally at 96) but sits 93-94 with decent ride. I would imagine an off-season strength and pitching specific program could do him wonders. Year 2 in Biloxi will be big. In 2023, everything went up a notch in the Southern League exposure - BAA, WHIP specifically. But, even with more runners on base he still didn't allow all that many runners to cross home plate. Tho, here again, there was an increased BABIP; Inherited Runners scoring (7-of-12 IR scored); and a slight decrease in K with an uptick in walks. All fine for a first exposure in an oft very challenging shift from High-A. BUT, he'll need to address those in year 2.

[CheeseheadInQC]

My general rule is don't get too excited about relievers until they reach AA. I'll occasionally break it either because of amazing scouting reports like Uribe or just kind of on a hunch like Reifert or sort of Shane Smith before his promotion. In general, though, I try to hold expectations down. That being said, I find the way the Brewers have assembled some of these lower level bullpens utterly fascinating.

They have this bizarre assemblage of Indy Ball veterans, undrafted free agents and Ex-DSLers who put up mediocre to poor stats their first two years in the system. If this were 10-15 years ago, I would have thought they were filling a bunch of roster vacancies with cannon fodder because, well, someone had to eat the bullpen innings. Probably still would with some other organizations. With the current Brewers system, though, it feels far more intentional than that. It seems like the Brewers have made a conscious decision that this is the best way to get potential major leaguers out of the minor league relief corps.

Hopefully the guys on this list and others not mentioned continue to make this look like a smart move. Regardless, I'll be here paying attention, because like I said, utterly fascinating.