Why Tyler Black Might Solve One Problem But Raise Another for the 2024 Brewers

[BrewerFan]

6 hours ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

I don't find this to be a compelling rebuttal because I see huge red flags with Bellinger's 2023, too.

I'm somewhat down on Black because his batted ball data worries me. But mostly, it's that batted ball data coupled with his defensive limitations. If he was an average or above-average fielder - which he might have a chance to become in time - killing worms and legging it out could be a pretty valuable player.

But in his current incarnation, I have more than a little concern about his viability as an MLB everyday player.

I don't find 142 ABs in AAA where he progressively got better to be that compelling. 

2 hours ago, wiguy94 said:

In a very small AAA sample yes he did although that was largely from like a 65% GB rate in his first month in AAA. In AA he had a 37% GB-rate and 43% FB-rate with a 41% pull rate which is pretty comparable to Bellinger's 2023 of 36% GB-rate, 43% FB-rate, 44% pull rate.

Ahh...again, should have scrolled down instead of going straight to the notifications.

[Matthew Trueblood]

4 minutes ago, BrewerFan said:

35.8% GB, 43.4% FB rate last year for Bellinger, 43.6% pull side.

Black in AA last year(where he got most of his ABs);

37.0% GB 43.2% FB with 40.8% pull side(his pull side was actually higher in AAA at 41.7%).

Not that I think anyone's expecting him to match Bellinger's power number of hit 47 HRs in ANY year, but you're taking 142 ABs...after a late-season promotion to AAA. 
 

So this just seems a bit silly. ANY hope for power from a guy who we don't expect a ton of power from(I think 15-20 is pretty reasonable) is pretty much gone because of a small sample size in AAA while ignoring AA? Just seems like a questionable narrative. 

See, now we're down to a band of disagreement where I'm happy calling it even. I want to strongly caution against equating numbers--even batted-ball data, which doesn't have the same obvious downward pressure in translation--accrued in MLB with those accrued in AA. And I think Black's probably more like 10 homers a year than 15 or 20, but again: the gap now is small enough that we're just hashing out details.

The last thing I want to note on it is that we also have the related data points of the rookies who came up last year, though. Frelick is a really comparable player, and we saw how he got eaten up by big-league pitching (not overall, but in terms of generating any real punch). Turang lost his power in translation, although (as Brenton Del Chiaro said on that great podcast he guested on last week) I think some of that was approach-based, rather than being locked in. Monasterio didn't get to any pop. Right now, I think the org might need to consider that they're doing well at coaching swing decisions and "elite problem solvers," to quote Del Chiaro again, but not as well as they need to at helping them unlock power. The counterexamples--guys like Rowdy, in recent years--are those who brought their own big raw to the table. How do you help players like Black, whose raw is clearly pretty limited, get to enough to maximize his utility?

[Brewcrew82]

53 minutes ago, Matthew Trueblood said:

In 2022, Esteury Ruiz had a .447 OBP in the upper minors. Miguel Vargas had a .411. That's two examples plucked from one very recent season off the top of my head.

You guys can keep thinking I'm secretly here just to talk down all things Brewers, but we're at almost a year together and I would think you'd have seen enough to start letting that paranoia go. Again: Black might be good! I'm just trying to have what I think is an awfully relevant conversation about the sources of risk and uncertainty around him. I have a piece about Ben Brown's fastball problem going live at NSBB tomorrow, in case you're worried that I never do the same with Cubs prospects. This is ball talk, man. It shouldn't be pollyanna all the time. That's boring.

No, but Esteury Ruiz just had one dominant year at 23 in the upper minors and had atrocious batted ball data, culminating in him having by far the lowest average EV in the majors this year. Black's is nowhere near that low. Vargas, interestingly, put the ball in the air a ton with a 47%. FB rate (which you want Black to do), yet had his worst season of his career including the minors. Black has plus speed so I don't think you don't want all of his contact going in the air. Fact of the matter is, unlike Ruiz and Vargas, Black has put up a +.400 OBP everywhere he's been. He may not reach quite that level in the majors, but there's very little reason to think he won't get on base at a well above average rate, which is precisely what you want from your #2 hitter. 

As Wiguy points out, you're completely ignoring his AA data where he spent the vast majority of the season and then decide to extrapolate out a much smaller sample size from AAA....

If this were a one-off, I wouldn't think much of it other than I simply disagree, but with some of the other articles you've been pumping out lately and with seemingly increasing frequency, it sure as heck is going to raise eyebrows on a Brewers fan site. 

[wiguy94]

Just now, Brewcrew82 said:

No, but Esteury Ruiz just had one dominant year at 23 in the upper minors and had atrocious batted ball data, culminating in him having by far the lowest average EV in the majors this year. Black's is nowhere near that low. Vargas, interestingly, put the ball in the air a ton with a 47%. FB rate (which you want Black to do), yet had his worst season of his career including the minors. Black has plus speed so I don't think you don't want all of his contact going in the air. Fact of the matter is, unlike Ruiz and Vargas, Black has put up a +.400 OBP everywhere he's been. He may not reach quite that level in the majors, but there's very little reason to think he won't get on base at a well above average rate, which is precisely what you want from your #2 hitter. 

As Wiguy points out, you're completely ignoring his AA data where he spent the vast majority of the season and then decide to extrapolate out a much smaller sample size from AAA. 

If this were a one-off, I wouldn't think much of it other than I simply disagree, but with some of the other articles you've been pumping out lately and with seemingly increasing frequency, it sure as heck is going to raise eyebrows on a Brewers fan site. 

I have to imagine you’re extremely low on PCA’s bat as well 

[BrewerFan]

6 minutes ago, Matthew Trueblood said:

See, now we're down to a band of disagreement where I'm happy calling it even. I want to strongly caution against equating numbers--even batted-ball data, which doesn't have the same obvious downward pressure in translation--accrued in MLB with those accrued in AA. And I think Black's probably more like 10 homers a year than 15 or 20, but again: the gap now is small enough that we're just hashing out details.

Ok....I'm not arguing if his upside is 20 HRs or 10. I think the 18 HRs last year, his first full healthy year in the minors would suggest it's more than 10, but regardless...so what? You're presenting this argument as though his strongest tool was his power and now that's all thrown into question.

That was NEVER his calling card, nor the reason he was a top 50 prospect. It was his bat-to-ball skills, his ~16% BB rate, his lower K rate, and his speed. He's not a Wilken-type prospect. Never was.

And I find the Ruiz comparison absurdly disingenuous. That you're comparing his ability to get on base with that of Black shows a narrative you're trying to present rather than a subjective analysis. 

 

 

[RedStickBrew]

3 hours ago, Playing Catch said:

IIRC, it has been suggested this number could be off by as many as 4 inches.

I chuckle every time questions about his height come up here. I have been in close proximity to him several times in Biloxi. I’m 5’ 11”, I didn’t measure him but he is a little taller than me. I took this pic of him just a few feet away from me last season

[SF70]

Del Chiaro also mentioned how much stronger Black has gotten coming into this past season, working-out during his injury absence’s. 

A 4 mph increase in exit velo in ‘23 over ‘22 is impressive. So is his FB rate vs GB rate., ISO improvement, and more than quadrupling his HR output. 

Nice progress I’d say from Mr Black.

[Fear The Chorizo]

You guys can keep thinking I'm secretly here just to talk down all things Brewers, but we're at almost a year together and I would think you'd have seen enough to start letting that paranoia go.

Honestly, I think time and the growing amount of content being churned out is having the exact opposite effect on many regulars to this message board.  

There is nothing about Black's 2023 minor league season offensively that should be cause for a potential Brewers' problem moving forward.

 

[BrewerFan]

34 minutes ago, Fear The Chorizo said:

You guys can keep thinking I'm secretly here just to talk down all things Brewers, but we're at almost a year together and I would think you'd have seen enough to start letting that paranoia go.

Honestly, I think time and the growing amount of content being churned out is having the exact opposite effect on many regulars to this message board.  

There is nothing about Black's 2023 minor league season offensively that should be cause for a potential Brewers' problem moving forward.

 

I don't think he's here trolling, I just don't think it's as balanced as he thinks it is.

The PCA question is a very good one. How concerned are we about him? I think the kid looks like a stud, but you can certainly pick apart the same issues.

But for me, the big thing is, Black was NEVER supposed to be a #4-5 type hitter. Maybe top end #3, more likely a #2 if he develops as expected. And there's really no reason he shouldn't hit 15-20. Especially playing half his games at Miller Park.

Let's say though, for the sake of argument, he does "only" hit 10. If he's got a 65 bat, and he walks like he has, that's almost ideal for a #2 hitter. 

I don't think using Frelick or Turang helps his argument about Black or with regard to his bias or lack thereof. They were both rookies and we all compared Frelick to Kwann. Not a power threat. 

[Playing Catch]

I've been concerned about the long-term value of all of Turang, Frelick, Mitchell and Wiemer, for many of the things MT stated in his article about Black. Each of them have some glaring concerns, IMO. I've been excited about all of them because I think the hardest "jump" prospects can make is to go from good prospect to every day MLB starter. I think most of them showed enough last year that I'm feeling they all can be serviceable starters. This makes me really happy!

But the concern is that we have a whole team of merely serviceable players without any that are good starters for a playoff team. I don't see anything in the article that is saying anything different.

With this said, I'm quite hopeful that at least one or two of these guys can make another jump in year 2. If Frelick turns himself into a .300 hitter? if Mitchell's power remains and SO% becomes reasonable? If Wiemer makes enough contact to blossom? If Turang can OPS .700?

It would be great if Black can assuage those concerns and turn in a promising MLB debut season in '24.

[Fear The Chorizo]

17 hours ago, wiguy94 said:

I have to imagine you’re extremely low on PCA’s bat as well 

Was checking NSBB for a similar article discussing PCA's MLB ceiling as a late-inning defensive replacement/pinch runner since his bat resembles several soggy rolls of tp strung onto a wet noodle, but strangely enough there wasn't one.