Giants May Be Interested In Willy Adames

[Scooterfletcher]

I want Turang at ss if he is playing on the mlb team regularly but I’d need whisenhunt in a straight up Adames deal.

[Frisbee Slider]

What do we think the future production will be from Adames? I think there is a meaningful chance he is Javy Baez 2.0, without the mental lapses.

A good shortstop, confused for a great shortstop that can regress to average after age 30.

[sveumrules]

14 minutes ago, Frisbee Slider said:

What do we think the future production will be from Adames? I think there is a meaningful chance he is Javy Baez 2.0, without the mental lapses.

A good shortstop, confused for a great shortstop that can regress to average after age 30.

For as bad as Adames swing decisions can be, Baez is really on a planet of his own.

Willy has a 114 BB%+ and 117 K%+ during his 1668 PA with the Brewers with a 98 BABIP+. His overall Swing% is 49.3% with 24.6% of those pitches being out of zone.

Peak Baez (2018-21) posted a 51 BB%+ and 133 K%+ over 1988 PA with a 113 BABIP+. He had an overall Swing% of 56.2% with 42.0% of those pitches being out of zone.

Willy has a much more stable profile in terms of walking waaay more and not being BABIP reliant, and that’s before getting to him swinging and striking out  way less too.

As for future production, Steamer projects him for a 103 wRC+ and 3.1 WAR next year, if he did that he’d come in around 102 wRC+ and 11.2 WAR over his three seasons before hitting FA heading into age 29.

The best recent FA comp for that would probably be the pending Matt Chapman contract. He’s at 110 wRC+ and 11.7 WAR over his last three years heading into his age 31 season.

Both are field over hit players, with Adames having the advantage of being younger and farther up the defensive spectrum.

A lot will hinge on this year. Hit all season like he did in 2021? He’ll probably get something like Dansby money ($177M). Struggle at the plate again and put up another 94 wRC+ (or worse) and he might struggle to crack $100M.

[Fear The Chorizo]

29 minutes ago, sveumrules said:

For as bad as Adames swing decisions can be, Baez is really on a planet of his own.

Willy has a 114 BB%+ and 117 K%+ during his 1668 PA with the Brewers with a 98 BABIP+. His overall Swing% is 49.3% with 24.6% of those pitches being out of zone.

Peak Baez (2018-21) posted a 51 BB%+ and 133 K%+ over 1988 PA with a 113 BABIP+. He had an overall Swing% of 56.2% with 42.0% of those pitches being out of zone.

Willy has a much more stable profile in terms of walking waaay more and not being BABIP reliant, and that’s before getting to him swinging and striking out  way less too.

As for future production, Steamer projects him for a 103 wRC+ and 3.1 WAR next year, if he did that he’d come in around 102 wRC+ and 11.2 WAR over his three seasons before hitting FA heading into age 29.

The best recent FA comp for that would probably be the pending Matt Chapman contract. He’s at 110 wRC+ and 11.7 WAR over his last three years heading into his age 31 season.

Both are field over hit players, with Adames having the advantage of being younger and farther up the defensive spectrum.

A lot will hinge on this year. Hit all season like he did in 2021? He’ll probably get something like Dansby money ($177M). Struggle at the plate again and put up another 94 wRC+ (or worse) and he might struggle to crack $100M.

Adames 2021 season after first coming to the Brewers has proven to be his statistical outlier for his career.  Expecting him to repeat that and then base an extension or free agent deal of sustaining that level of offense is what teams like the Angels do in free agency.  

Adames is a good mlb player who plays solid defense at a premium position and can carry a team offensively for a couple weeks here and there during the season...the rest if the time you better not have to rely on him in the top half of the batting order.

Personally, I'd like to trade Adames now if there's value to avoid him repeating 2023 at the plate and wind up not even being comfortable offering him a QO next offseason and getting nothing back for him leaving.

 

[umphrey]

Luciano was forecasted as a future top 5 prospect for several years in the 2018 to 2022 time frame. He’s still riding that hype a little bit, but the hype was there because of talent, and the talent is still there, but the MiLB stats have been underwhelming. I could definitely see the giants trading him, he never really felt like their type of player honestly, but they will probably value him like a top 30 prospect and too valuable for Adames straight up. Hard to say for sure though, the amateur prospect lists can be very wrong on a guy like Luciano, could be that the real analysts have moved on from the hype already and we don’t realize it yet. 

[brewcrewdue80]

Looks to me, Luciano is a victim of developmental time losing 2020. Then rushed ahead of his developmental time line.  Probably because his shine with 13 other SSs in top 100 pipeline ranked from 30-98 behind him and him already dropping from near top towards 30. There are 22 SS overall in top 98 rankings. Luciano's K rate hovers closer to 30pct than I'd be comfortable with for a SS questionable to stick at SS.  Last season was actually his first time playing AA and above.  

Bref has Luciano at .934 pct and 3.54 range at SS in minors.  Turang came in at .959 and 4.17 range.  2b/3b/DH future appears where he's headed.  The bat appears HR worthy. .250s more realistic than that .270 notation until cleans up that K rate.  

They list his arm as plus so 3b with power would work in Milw favor. 2b takes away where Black profiles best.  Giants if an extension with Adames was realistic happening would be a good move for them. Risky on Brewers.  

I'd wonder if Luciano spent entire season in the minors if he'd still be top 50 in rankings. The k Rate was over 30pct, 2b/DH games increase. 

 

I like Wisenhunt over Luciano for sure.  Keep in mind looking at Wisenhunt's game logs. He pitched in 5th inning just 4 times last year. With 0, 1, 1, and 2hits allowed. 0, 1, 2, (5IP) and 3 bbs allowed(4.1 that game)  so he has very little history behind him pitching to batters a 3rd time in starts.