The 2024 Breakout Could Come From Christian Yelich

[Jake McKibbin]

For the first time since signing his big contract extension, Christian Yelich demonstrated that he can impact the baseball over a period longer than a week, including some gaudy slugging numbers in June and July. He once again showed signs of his most dominant self before back issues resurfaced in August and even once he returned in September. How can he carry this form through an entire season in 2024?

Image courtesy of © Jayne Kamin-Oncea-USA TODAY Sports

Let’s be clear: Christian Yelich’s back health seemed instrumental to the season he put up, stealing 20 bases for the first time since 2019 and falling just short of the 20 home run mark. Add in the improved defense, and it’s fair to say this may have been his healthiest year in a while, but his success came down to far more than just his back. With an .800 OPS for the first time since 2019 and more consistent power surges from June onwards, is it fair to say that Yelich could, in fact, be on the comeback trail?

The Approach
In previous seasons, Yelich sometimes had a passivity at the plate, which prevented him from accessing his slugging capabilities. I wrote an article earlier this year on how Yelich’s first pitch swing rate has a remarkable correlation to his slugging numbers, which rebounded significantly this season. In short, Yelich wanted to work the count and get on base rather than drive the ball and punish pitchers. Here are his stats through each count in 2023 compared to 2022 per FanGraphs:

The biggest difference between these is in the Isolated power stat. In counts where he got ahead, the only time he had an ISO (Isolated Power) above .200 was in a 3-0 count. In 2023, he achieved this in every batter-friendly count save the 2-1. In particular, I should draw attention to those gaudy numbers in a 2-0 situation, which highlights why pitchers pitch around him so often. It also means that if they try and get ahead early, his ability to do damage on that first pitch is critical.

One other approach-related point is seen above. Ignoring his monstrous ground ball rates for a second during his prime months of 2023 (June and July), it’s interesting to note the raised number of balls he hit to center field rather than pulling them. Yelich has more than enough power to clear the fences in straightaway center, and the reduced shift may allow him more freedom to take advantage of the shortstop and second base gap. It resulted in a big increase in the hard-hit balls during these months and is something they may look to do more of in 2024.

Can His Back Hold Up?
In short, yes, but with a supplement. Christian Yelich will likely need some breaks here and there to rest his back when it starts playing up, but the key for him will be not if he has these breaks but whether or not he can quickly find the power stroke that makes him one of the more dangerous hitters in baseball. With the outfield mix going into 2024 featuring several flying young studs, he can afford more time at DH with William Contreras (injury permitting). 

His bat is his carrying tool, and in hindsight, it appears clear that Yelich should have been rested far earlier in August despite his on-base prowess. His hard hit rates plummeted, suggesting an underlying injury; however, when he returned after a two-week break in September, across 31 plate appearances, Yelich had ten hits, with three doubles and two home runs for a .400/.516/.760 slash line. If and when he does need stretches on the Injured List, this type of return to strength will be pivotal. 130 games of a slugging Yelich is far more valuable than 150 games of on-base-focused Yelich, something the Brewers will address in their approach in 2024.

Where Can He Still Improve?
One of the big areas in which Yelich still struggled was against left-handed pitching, specifically due to one pitch. Identifying and laying off the slider going down and away from him was a real issue, particularly when you compare to his contact in every other zone;

                          

As you can see, not only did he swing and miss excessively, but he also had a meager expected batting average against this pitch, whether inside or out of the zone. Contrast that with the damage when he can force pitchers onto the plate’s inner part, and it could take him another notch up.

Overall on the year, Yelich hit .234/.302/.331 against southpaws, and addressing this issue with the slider could go a long way to providing some added impetus both for the Brewer's struggles against starting left-handers and for his season-ending stat line.

Overall, Yelich showed considerably more promise in 2023 than he has for a long time, with long runs of demonstrable power giving the results that justify his hefty contract. If he can focus on the above adjustments he made in 2023 and better manage the back alongside the team, there’s earnest hope that Christian Yelich could bring out an OPS in the .900 range again.

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[Harold Hutchison]

Moving Yelich to DH (or possibly first base) full-time could not just help him manage his back better, but it also could alleviate the outfield logjam - imagine going into 2024 with an opening day outfield of Frelick (LF), Mitchell/Wiemer (CF), and Chourio (RF).

DH gets improved by 250 points of OPS from Winker, who was the primary DH in 2023. First base goes up 150 points from Rowdy Tellez. Brewers can maximize their young outfield talent.

[Jake McKibbin]

20 minutes ago, clancyphile said:

Moving Yelich to DH (or possibly first base) full-time could not just help him manage his back better, but it also could alleviate the outfield logjam - imagine going into 2024 with an opening day outfield of Frelick (LF), Mitchell/Wiemer (CF), and Chourio (RF).

DH gets improved by 250 points of OPS from Winker, who was the primary DH in 2023. First base goes up 150 points from Rowdy Tellez. Brewers can maximize their young outfield talent.

He'll be there, but he'll not be full time there if only because they'll want Contreras bat in there as often as possible on days when he's not catching. But a platoon between the two is likely the plan as things stand

His back seems to be struggling more with the torque of the waist and shoulder rotation than as a result of fielding, however I'd believe barring injury woes in the outfield he'll be DHing more than 20 times next year. More likely 50-60 range, or 40% of the time. Cant see it being full time though at this point.

Also the freshmen will need to hit significantly better this season to justify regular outfield spots

[Rick Daltons Flamethrower]

Still don't understand why Matt Arnold said no to Yelich moving to first base. Looks like it could be a great transition for him and the team. 

[Jake McKibbin]

11 hours ago, Rick Daltons Flamethrower said:

Still don't understand why Matt Arnold said no to Yelich moving to first base. Looks like it could be a great transition for him and the team. 

At first glance, absolutely, however I'd say in theory there are a couple of reasons.

His back might actually be affected more by first base given the stretching and torque of twisting around, plus the increased involvement compared to left field (where again he was admirable last year)

The Brewers also have more bat first infielders in the upper minors than they've had for a long time. Likely Tyler Black ends up there, or Brock Wilken (more likely Black)

It's also in theory and easier spot to upgrade than the outfield, and can trade outfield depth for such quality in other positions by keeping Yelich there

[Doug B]

Yelich needs to be at 1B. He's 6'3" with a noodle arm. He is a colossal waste of money at DH. He creates a logjam at LF and frankly isn't any good out there anyway.