Why Haven't the Brewers Signed Rhys Hoskins Already?

[Tim Muma]

Without inside knowledge of the Milwaukee Brewers front office conversations, we can only logically speculate about the club's interest in free-agent first baseman Rhys Hoskins. But with what seems like a good match of player and team, what is holding up an agreement between the two?

Image courtesy of © Bill Streicher - USA Today Sports

There's plenty to like about Rhys Hoskins, especially for a Milwaukee Brewers team needing a reliable bat. Plugging a career 125 OPS+ hitter into a lineup is a no-brainer for almost any team, and this one has averaged an .822 OPS with 28 home runs in his last two full seasons. That would have ranked him first on the 2023 Brewers in homers, and second in OPS among qualified hitters. One player doesn't solidify a lineup, but it can have quite the impact in the middle of an order.

Hoskins's right-handed thunder has led him to a .921 career OPS against lefties, including slugging percentages of .558 and .570 in 2022 and 2021, respectively. He also draws walks at a terrific rate. His lifetime 13.5% walk rate would have led the Brewers last season and ranked 13th in all of MLB. He isn't all roses. Hoskins's defense at first base is below-average at best. However, his offensive profile and production are worth the dip in fielding value. After all, the Brewers survived Rowdy Tellez's defense over there for a couple of seasons.
 

 

Where will the top remaining MLB free agents sign?

FOX Sports' @RowanKavner listed potential landing spots for the top 10 still left on the board ⬇️ pic.twitter.com/pcaRCADdGI

— FOX Sports: MLB (@MLBONFOX) January 22, 2024

What is keeping GM Matt Arnold from signing Hoskins immediately?

Concerns About Hoskins's ACL Recovery
Although pro athletes have the best surgery and rehabilitation services at their disposal, returning from serious, long-term injuries can create doubts about an athlete's return. Hoskins's ACL tear last year in spring training knocked him out for 2023, and while all indications are that he's ready to roll, teams like the Brewers might not fancy the risk. 

Will he be the same player he has been? Will he reinjure the knee and miss lots of time? Will he suffer other issues compensating for the knee? Is his power going to be sapped? For a club like Milwaukee, which budgets its expenditures more tightly than others, the uncertainty can be too much to overcome, depending on the price. Hoskins has other suitors, so the Brewers can't rely on signing him to a low-risk, high-reward deal.

Money Talks...and It's Too Loud
MLB Trade Rumors predicted Hoskins would get $18 million per season. Considering the Brewers have first base options, even if they aren't the sexy kind, it's difficult to see them going that high, particularly with the risk factor. With Scott Boras as Hoskins's agent, you know he'll look to squeeze every penny out of any team. And with reports saying teams like the Chicago Cubs and Toronto Blue Jays have interest, there is money to be had. If the average annual value remains north of $15 million, the Brewers probably would only be tempted if it was a one-year contract.

It's believed Milwaukee wants to keep payroll around the same mark as in 2023, where $120 million would bump up against the ceiling in 2024. FanGraphs's Roster Resource currently has the Brewers at about a $105 million projected payroll. Without a move or two to get some salary off the books, Hoskins probably isn't the "one move" to reach their limit. Milwaukee should be willing to spend more this season with Corbin Burnes and (likely) Willy Adames's salaries erased heading into 2025, but unfortunately, the fans aren't in control of the money yet.

Forget the Money, the Years are the Problem
No matter the cost, one-year deals are rarely hard to swallow for any club. However, with multiple interested teams and Hoskins turning 31 in March, a two- or three-year offer is likely necessary. All things considered, Hoskins probably wants to focus on a "big" deal, compared to a one-year prove-it option. That could be the tipping point to get him to Milwaukee, if Arnold threw down a three-year deal on the table for slightly less than the predicted $18 million per season. But would they do that?

It seems more likely Milwaukee hasn't been mentioned in legitimate rumors for Hoskins because of their unwillingness to go multiple years. On top of the risk of guaranteed money for uncertain production, there are several corner bats in their farm system the organization might not want to be blocked. Unless the Crew got creative - say, offering a two-year contract with an opt-out after the first season - the years might be the biggest holdup.

The Third Money-Related Complication: Diamond Sports Group Bankruptcy
While the Brewers are already at a disadvantage with their TV deal, the demise of Diamond Sports Group, which owns Bally Sports, throws more uncertainty into Milwaukee's revenue problem. Uncertainty about whether a short-term solution will get worked out, or better yet, a long-term option, likely puts a pause on significant deals for the Crew. Other clubs with Bally as their broadcast TV partner are feeling the same uneasiness.

Big news this morning that Amazon is acquiring a minority stake in Diamond Sports Group.

The regional sports network filed for bankruptcy last year, putting local media rights for 37 teams across the NBA, MLB, and NHL in jeopardy.

Now, customers can watch games on Amazon Prime. pic.twitter.com/959nnLRyCO

— Joe Pompliano (@JoePompliano) January 17, 2024

For the Brewers, especially, cost certainty has long been a staple of the organization's ability to compete despite lower payrolls than many of their competitors. Unless or until MLB takes care of the problem, it might force Milwaukee to hold tight on any move beyond a few million or one year. If the league can work out a deal with Amazon Prime that nets Milwaukee some additional coin and steadiness, that could open the floodgates - at least to a noticeable trickle - for the Brewers to spend a bit more.

Hoskins Waiting on the Cubs
Many experts think that Cody Bellinger remains Chicago's top priority, with Hoskins as a backup option offensively. Should that be true, or even considered, it would serve Hoskins well to wait and see if the big-market Cubs get desperate and pony up. Of course, they could afford to acquire both players.

Conversely, if Chicago drops out of the bidding, it gives hope to other interested clubs. One might be willing to up the ante at that point, knowing they aren't competing with Chicago on the money side. Perhaps if Bellinger makes a decision in the next week or so, we can all get more clarity on Hoskins's market and potential landing spots.

Maybe the Brewers or Hoskins Aren't Looking to Match Up
It sounds silly, but the Brewers simply might not want Hoskins as part of their plans. Many of us are still determining what Milwaukee is actually doing this offseason. Perhaps, as noted above, they are looking to fast-track some young bats for first base, which could include Tyler Black this season. Or maybe they genuinely like Jake Bauers as the top choice in 2024. It's unclear if Arnold plans to push for another NL Central crown with Burnes in tow or if it's a soft reset, saving money and hoping for the best out of the young and inexperienced group.

Meanwhile, it could be Hoskins who isn't keen on a partnership. Whether it's location, prestige, team direction or plain old money, sometimes players cross clubs off their list before any conversations begin. It's difficult to say what reputation the organization now has, after players have griped a bit over the past couple of seasons.

Hopefully, something breaks soon on the Brewers' roster front. Spring training is quickly approaching, and the lineup appears less than daunting for opposing pitchers. What do you think is the biggest holdup preventing a deal between Milwaukee and Hoskins? What would you be willing to offer if it is money or years as the obstacle? No one can argue his potential impact, but there are questions surrounding a possible contract. Otherwise, all signs would have already pointed to Hoskins in a Brewers uniform on Opening Day.

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[Fear The Chorizo]

This article can be edited and reduced to five words:

His agent is Scott Boras

[Harold Hutchison]

I can do it in about one sentence.

Several Brewers who received non-roster invitations to spring training, notably Tyler Black, Wes Clarke, and Brock Wilken, could likely provide solid performance at first base for a much cheaper price.

[sveumrules]

16 minutes ago, clancyphile said:

I can do it in about one sentence.

Several Brewers who received non-roster invitations to spring training, notably Tyler Black, Wes Clarke, and Brock Wilken, could likely provide solid performance at first base for a much cheaper price.

Wes Clarke has zero PAs above AA.

Wilken has 25 PAs at AA.

Non-roster invitation to spring training or not, neither of these guys is in a position to impact the MLB club on Opening Day.

At some point later in the season? Sure, maybe, but that should be viewed as more of a bonus outcome than an expected one.

I certainly hope he makes it and is the starting 3B, but even Tyler Black isn’t a lock for the OD roster.

There’s plenty of room in the org for Hoskins, Black, Clarke and Wilken.

[MrTPlush]

This seems hardly shocking at all. When have the Brewers ever gone after a major 1B? It isn't exactly an investment small markets go after. Not to mention he is going into his age 31 season after sitting on his couch all last year. 

I mean, honestly, hard pass. 

[Tim Muma]

As noted, I don't think it "only comes down to the money." There have been a few mentions of Hoskins and the Brewers being a fit. Sure money is a major factor, but it's disingenuous to only view it from that scope. And again, it hinges on what is Arnold's plan exactly. 

Sure, they can stick with the young, unproven guys to get all 600+ plate appearances at 1B, but that also seems unrealistic. Even look with highly-touted guys like Frelick and Wiemer. It's not a guarantee for success, nor is it a linear process. I don't believe the Brewers would have any reason to do a 3-year contract, but 2 or 1 could work, provided he doesn't get no-trade options.

Until anything is settled, the Brewers shouldn't rule anything out, nor shut the door on different ways to think about roster construction. Plus...I take umbrage with the idea that because he "sat on the couch" for a year. Considering my experience with my son having just been cleared to participate with his college team 9 months after his ACL surgery....it's INCREDIBLY hard work to get back to playing.

[Michael Trzinski]

1 hour ago, Fear The Chorizo said:

This article can be edited and reduced to five words:

His agent is Scott Boras

Yes, and that is a HUGE problem.

[Doug B]

2 hours ago, clancyphile said:

I can do it in about one sentence.

Several Brewers who received non-roster invitations to spring training, notably Tyler Black, Wes Clarke, and Brock Wilken, could likely provide solid performance at first base for a much cheaper price.

Or Yelich could do it at a much more expensive price and clear an OF logjam. But we already are stuck with that deal. So he should be giving 1B a go. 

[monty57]

Hoskins has been #1 on my wish-list all offseason. This has been a very slow offseason, and it wouldn't surprise me if the Bally/Diamond bankruptcy has had a lot to do with that. 

As to Hoskins specifically, I'd guess that he's trying to land a longer-term deal, and will wait it out until it either happens or it's obvious it isn't going to happen. I think the Brewers would go one or two years, but would probably balk at anything longer than that, as they'll have a lot of pre-arby guys getting raises in a few years, and they probably don't want a 34/35 year old making a lot of money on the books at that time.

[MrTPlush]

39 minutes ago, Michael Trzinski said:

Yes, and that is a HUGE problem.

This is meaningless. We aren't trying to extend him, we would be trying to sign him in FA. You need to be the highest bidder regardless of whether his agent is Scott Boras or any other agent. 

[Fear The Chorizo]

5 hours ago, MrTPlush said:

This is meaningless. We aren't trying to extend him, we would be trying to sign him in FA. You need to be the highest bidder regardless of whether his agent is Scott Boras or any other agent. 

Yes, but Boras is notorious for dragging his premier free agents' free agency period out as long as possible in effort to claw as many offers from as many teams as possible.  It's tough to be the highest bidder in a process that doesn't have a deadline, and if you currently have the highest offer on the table but it's a contract Boras thinks isn't high enough, he'll advise his client to just stand pat until a team with deeper pockets comes a calling.

Hoskins has been a free agent officially now for what, 11 or so weeks?  Roughly 3 weeks until pitchers and catchers start reporting for Spring Training, so I guess there's at least 4-5 more weeks of Hoskins searching for that longterm contract.

[MrTPlush]

21 minutes ago, Fear The Chorizo said:

Yes, but Boras is notorious for dragging his premier free agents' free agency period out as long as possible in effort to claw as many offers from as many teams as possible.  It's tough to be the highest bidder in a process that doesn't have a deadline, and if you currently have the highest offer on the table but it's a contract Boras thinks isn't high enough, he'll advise his client to just stand pat until a team with deeper pockets comes a calling.

Hoskins has been a free agent officially now for what, 11 or so weeks?  Roughly 3 weeks until pitchers and catchers start reporting for Spring Training, so I guess there's at least 4-5 more weeks of Hoskins searching for that longterm contract.

Yes, I guess I’m the sense why he is still available in general. I suppose I wasn’t thinking of it like that.