If Brewers Want to Trade Another Big Name, Better Devin Williams Than Willy Adames

[Tim Muma]

Milwaukee Brewers leaders have consistently stated the club plans to compete in 2024, and despite the trade of Corbin Burnes, that seems to be the truth. That doesn't preclude Matt Arnold from shipping off more MLB talent, but roster construction and asset value should be determining factors in his next big trade.

Image courtesy of © Benny Sieu-USA TODAY Sports

When the Brewers acquired infielder Joey Ortiz as part of the Corbin Burnes trade, fans and experts surmised that a Willy Adames trade was imminent, or at least increasingly likely. With Adames's team control ending after the 2024 season, the numerous clubs looking for a reliable shortstop, and Milwaukee's current youth movement, it makes a lot of sense. But again, if the Brewers are sincere in their desire to compete this season while also keeping an eye on the future, multiple factors tell you another fan favorite is the better trade chip: closer Devin Williams.

Start by looking at the makeup of the current Brewers roster. The best way to improve the overall potential success of a team is to trade from a position of strength. The 2024 bullpen is loaded with filthy stuff, proven arms, multiple-inning versatility, and tons of options in the minor leagues. Many of the Brewers' relievers (and guys like Robert Gasser and DL Hall, who come to camp as starters but could spend time in the bullpen) are also under team control for at least two years. While relief pitchers can be volatile season-to-season, that is where the deep pool of players protects the club wonderfully. No doubt, losing Williams would be a blow to the nastiness of the ninth inning in Milwaukee, but the next men up have every chance to match his production, minus the "Airbender." Here's a snapshot of what the 2023 relief corps did statistically.



If you need a refresher on just how fully loaded the bullpen and its reserves are at this moment, here's a list of six players expected to be on the MLB roster, along with their 2023 stats:

• Joel Payamps: 169 ERA+ with 49 appearances allowing zero runs, with most of them in the 7th or 8th innings
• Abner Uribe: 247 ERA+ with an 11.4 K/9 and .154 batting average against
• Hoby Milner: 238 ERA+ with 0.96 WHIP overall, plus a .450 OPS against versus lefties
• Elvis Peguero: 128 ERA+ overall, and owned a 0.95 ERA and 0.68 WHIP on one day of rest
• Trevor Megill: 119 ERA+ with a 13.5 K/9 and 2.13 FIP
• Bryse Wilson: 167 ERA+ across 76.2 innings, with 23 of his 53 appearances more than one frame

Now, factor in a few pitchers who could either slot into the starting rotation or be weapons in the bullpen throughout the season:

• Aaron Ashby: Missed 2023 with an injury but owns a 3.66 ERA and .221 opponents' batting average as an MLB reliever
• Hall: Acquired in the Burnes trade, has an 11.5 K/9 rate in 33 MLB frames and tossed 3 1/3 shutout innings in relief in the 2023 postseason
• Joe Ross: Hasn't pitched in MLB since 2021 but posted a 4.17 ERA in 108 innings that season

And finally, some rookie options. All of them are viewed as hopeful starting pitchers, but they, too, could help the 2023 relief corps like Brandon Woodruff and Burnes did in 2018:

• Jacob Misiorowski: Brewers' third-ranked prospect by MLB Pipeline and one of the top 100 in baseball, overall. He has a 13.9 K/9 in the minors and is recognized for having elite-level stuff.
• Gasser: Brewers' fifth-ranked prospect by MLB Pipeline. A left-hander with an 11.0 K/9 and 3.73 ERA across three minor-league seasons.
• Carlos F. Rodriguez: Brewers' sixth-ranked prospect by MLB Pipeline. He owns a 2.94 ERA and 1.09 WHIP in two minor-league seasons.

That is a total of 12 pitchers outside of Williams, many of whom have proved their worth, and a handful of others with incredible potential. Again, bullpen success can fluctuate wildly for individual pitchers each season, but with the number of arms the Brewers have stored up and the track record they have in this area, it hardly feels like a gamble to move Williams.

Trading Adames away hurts the 2024 club much more. Yes, they could have Ortiz take over the starting role, but that would keep second- and third-base production uncertain. I like Tyler Black offensively, though there are legitimate questions about whetther he can make the throw from the hot corner. Brice Turang is fantastic defensively, but offensively, it's been rough and likely will continue to be. Of course, the Brewers have guys like Andrew Monasterio, Oliver Dunn, and Owen Miller to rotate through, but none of those guys figure to be regular forces in a contender's lineup.

Losing Adames's power in the middle third of the batting order would diminish the Crew's offensive potential. Despite a rather tumultuous 2023 campaign, Adames still brings a thunderous stick to the position, and it's hard to believe he'll finish with a meager .407 slugging percentage again in 2024. This is on top of his valuable defensive play. Plus, we don't know how well Ortiz will do if given the full-time duties at short right away, and he certainly won't have the same pop as Adames. If Adames is gone, you also thin out some quality depth should injury or failure happen to any of the possible shortstops.

Again, this is going off the premise that Milwaukee plans to compete in 2024. Even so, with one eye on the future, what the Brewers could get in return in a trade of Williams or Adames also plays a significant role. While a contending team with uncertainty at shortstop might be desperate enough to overpay for Adames, Williams's value is higher and, in most cases, would net better assets. People all over Twitter were salivating at their teams trading for Williams. Here's a deal that could send him to Texas.
 

What do we think of this trade proposal from @BRWalkoff ?

TEX Receives: Devin Williams

MIL Receives: Foscue, White, Ortiz pic.twitter.com/dcNcz37BVD

— Cowboy Yu (@buntdouble) February 3, 2024

Here's Williams going to the Dodgers.

Kyle Hurt, Emmet Sheehan & Gavin Stone for Devin Williams. Who says no? #GetitdoneFriedman https://t.co/zwl4JKbQfb pic.twitter.com/GWfDribI3j

— Rigz Rigglez ✝️ (@CoreySeagerJr) February 2, 2024

Factor one is that Williams is arguably the best closer in baseball, while Adames would be around the 10th spot among shortstops. That is high praise, but not on the same level as his airbending teammate. The second factor is years of control. As we saw with Burnes, an expiring contract dampens the return value for a player. Williams has two years of team control left, marking a sizable advantage to a club versus Adames, whom they would only have for one season. Acquiring Williams nets a team more flexibility, being able to keep him for both seasons or trade him at any number of vital points across two years.

Standing pat (for now) with both players is another option that might even be the most likely scenario. It all depends on the Brewers' outlook and the offers they might receive. Some might wonder if the front office feels anxious about shipping off another popular, talented player so soon after the Burnes' trade. If it's the right move in their minds, that shouldn't matter. Of course, the 2024 trade deadline could also create more interest if Milwaukee isn't playing well. Still, if one player were to be dealt, the more valuable option remains Williams.

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As Spring Training quickly approaches, what are the odds that one, both, or neither will get traded? The rumors will certainly be bandied about over the next few weeks. What are your thoughts on a potential trade for either of these two?

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[Trax]

Adames should be dealt if we get the return we want.  That is knowing of course we're not going to get a ton being there is only one year of control.  That one year of control is the key reason to move him and as long as the return is noticeably better than the comp pick we'd get make the trade.  I believe we can still compete this year without him and especially so if we can add a true MLB quality starting pitcher.

You ONLY move Williams if you can get a ton for him. an over value type return.  Period.

[Madhawk23]

If the Dodgers were willing to give us Hurt, Sheehan and Stone for Williams, the deal would have already been finalized.  I'm not sure if the Dodgers even offer us that package for both Williams and Adames....but I can't imagine there is any way we are getting those three arms for just Devin.  

[Playing Catch]

This is my stance. The Brewers are well-equipped to handle the loss of Williams. They aren't well-equipped to handle the loss of Adames. Williams could net better quality (SP prospect?) than Adames.

I'm more nervous about 2024 if they trade both, than just Williams.

The return for Adames NOW rather than offering QO is negligible.

The difference in the return for Williams NOW rather than waiting until one year from now is massive (I think).

[Bashopolis]

17 minutes ago, Playing Catch said:

This is my stance. The Brewers are well-equipped to handle the loss of Williams. They aren't well-equipped to handle the loss of Adames. Williams could net better quality (SP prospect?) than Adames.

I'm more nervous about 2024 if they trade both, than just Williams.

The return for Adames NOW rather than offering QO is negligible.

The difference in the return for Williams NOW rather than waiting until one year from now is massive (I think).

If Adames has a year like last year, it is questionable whether the Brewers give Adames a QO.  He might just accept it. And they have their SS of the future in Ortiz.  
So I’m not sure the draft pick compensation is the right level to set for a return.  And even if it is the right level, let’s keep in mind that Brewers haven’t got a great record of recent high end draft choices providing impact at the MLB level.  So this should also be a factor.  

[Jim French Stepstool]

If the return is somewhere in the neighborhood of what's being proposed above & they feel good about Uribes' command (and feel what Megill showed in the 2nd half is for real & sustainable), then I think there's sufficient depth in the BP, so go ahead & do it.

And if they aren't contending, you still may get some value from a team having a sudden need at SS (injury, lack of production) for Adames at the deadline. I agree with the premise of the article.

[eddiemathews]

1 hour ago, Playing Catch said:

This is my stance. The Brewers are well-equipped to handle the loss of Williams. They aren't well-equipped to handle the loss of Adames. Williams could net better quality (SP prospect?) than Adames.

I'm more nervous about 2024 if they trade both, than just Williams.

The return for Adames NOW rather than offering QO is negligible.

The difference in the return for Williams NOW rather than waiting until one year from now is massive (I think).

Yeah, to get Sheehan would probably require more than Williams.

[Rick Daltons Flamethrower]

I think it is time to trade him and I think he knows it too. The return on him will never be better. Washington, Oakland, Kansas City and Miami had the worst bullpens related to ERA last year. All of them were 5 or greater ERA. Maybe we could brew something up with them?

[rolafaive]

Williams would have to be the #1 trade candidate as far as return, Adames could still be moved at trade deadline if need be and standings of Brewers.

[old hickory]

15 hours ago, Bashopolis said:

If Adames has a year like last year, it is questionable whether the Brewers give Adames a QO.  He might just accept it. And they have their SS of the future in Ortiz.  
So I’m not sure the draft pick compensation is the right level to set for a return.  And even if it is the right level, let’s keep in mind that Brewers haven’t got a great record of recent high end draft choices providing impact at the MLB level.  So this should also be a factor.  

There is almost zero chance adames accepts a QO if he has another season like last year... even though it was considered a down year for Willy, he still played GG short and hit 24 HR.  He would need a considerable drop off from there (or injury) for him to consider a QO.  So long as he's a top 10 SS, a good presence in the clubhouse, and given the ridiculous amounts of money teams are shuttling around for SS, he will reject a QO and test the market.

[old hickory]

Other names to consider for the pen... 

 

Bryan Hudson

Taylor Clarke

Logan Henderson

JB Bukauskas

Bradley Blalock

Blake Holub

Evan McKendry

Tobias Myers

In short, the shuttle will be active.