Milwaukee Brewers 2024 Spring Training Position Battles: Fifth Starter

[Matthew Trueblood]

Today, we continue our fledgling series about the spring training position battles that might unfold for the 2024 Milwaukee Brewers. This edition will focus on the final spot in the starting rotation.

Image courtesy of © Mitch Stringer-USA TODAY Sports

Even without Corbin Burnes and Brandon Woodruff, the Brewers have managed to build a relatively veteran, relatively solid front half for their starting staff entering 2024. Behind newly lonely ace Freddy Peralta stand three well-traveled hurlers without elite stuff, but with good recent results in the big leagues and plenty of poise.

Few fans have treated the rotation spots of both Jakob Junis and Colin Rea as solidly spoken-for, but that's how I perceive the situation as camp opens. Junis, by all accounts, signed on with the understanding that he would be a starter, and there's room for him in the group. Rea, who (like Miley) reupped after an encouraging 2023, seems deserving of the same kind of clear shot, at least to begin the campaign.

That only leaves one spot in a five-man rotation truly up for grabs, and the Brewers have four interesting, qualified, disparate candidates to consider for it.

Robert Gasser
Though the only player in this mix not already on the 40-man roster, Gasser also feels like the one with the fairest claim to a shot at this. He's thrown a full season's worth of innings at the Triple-A level, and he's worked relentlessly to fine-tune a strange combination of release point and stuff profile into something that will work against big-league hitters, multiple times through the order.

As I've attested, though, it might make equally good sense for Gasser to begin in long relief, learning the difference between Triple A and the majors firsthand, through hard experience. Eventually, he could move back to the rotation, but it needn't be right away in early 2024.

DL Hall
Gasser is a lefty, and it limits him as a starter, because he also throws in the low 90s. Hall is a lefty whose velocity only contributes to the unhittable nature of his stuff. Throwing strikes has been a colossal challenge, though, and if he can't come to camp and quickly show improved control, it might be time to just shift him into relief and never look back. If there's a version of Hall that is the heir apparent to Devin Williams as the Crew's relief ace, unlocking him now makes sense. First, they'll try him as a starter once more, after whatever changes the pitching infrastructure group wants to make. By Opening Day, we should have more than an inkling about where things stand. Hall's walk rate this spring will be about as important a single statistical category as the Cactus League can give you. 

Aaron Ashby
Let's finish the lefties off. While Ashby is undoubtedly a candidate for the rotation, it's going to be hard for Pat Murphy to come out of camp feeling confident that Ashby can give him the innings to be a traditional starter. The injury that cost him all of 2023 at the big-league level is not of the kind that usually benefits from a transition to the pen, but the Brewers can't afford to make their decisions based purely on Ashby. They're pursuing a second straight NL Central championship, and while Ashby's upside is as high as any of these options, Murphy's first concern has to be certitude for the fifth spot in the rotation. 

Joe Ross
Early this winter, Matt Arnold and company made a few acquisitions that just felt like adding carpeting. They didn't move the needle for the team, but they were there to provide a softer landing if the team ended up really emptying things out and doing a one- or two-year rebuild. That's not quite how the offseason has actually played out, so Ross feels almost redundant--and certainly unexciting.

On the other hand, he's the kind of veteran arm from whom the Brewers have gotten surprisingly good things the last few years. Letting him start 15 games for the Crew is no more daunting than letting Rea do so would have seemed a year ago, and that worked out fine. 

The Most Likely Resolution
Since Gasser can still be stashed safely in Triple A, the smart money says he'll be there--barring an injury in camp. Ross and Ashby will be on the roster, but either or both could work out of relief. At this moment, having seen no game action yet this spring, Hall feels like the favorite to win the job. Since he was half the return for Burnes, and given the grades national prospect crews have put on his fastball, Hall feels like the one the organization can most easily turn into a fifth starter who helps them in the short term and guides them one step closer to a thrilling future.

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[eddiemathews]

I have no favorites here...truly a RAFO situation.

[Bratwithspecialsauce]

Agreed, no clear cut winner at this point. Hall has an edge to start but if he has problems, its anyone's spot.

I could see each of the left handers spot starting against lefty heavy lineups and Joe Ross getting starts against righties, unless one of them steps up.

If one of the lefthanders bombs in spring training, they will likely be the one in AAA.

[jay87shot]

I still like a piggyback situation and then go to a 6 man rotation after a month or so and the schedule gets tougher. Hall/Ross to start and then when going to a 6th man Ross to pen and Gasser to rotation as 6th man.

[eddiemathews]

17 minutes ago, Bratwithspecialsauce said:

Agreed, no clear cut winner at this point. Hall has an edge to start but if he has problems, its anyone's spot.

I could see each of the left handers spot starting against lefty heavy lineups and Joe Ross getting starts against righties, unless one of them steps up.

If one of the lefthanders bombs in spring training, they will likely be the one in AAA.

It seems likely to me that Ashby is in AAA until he shows that he's right. Or is "he's left"?

[JohnBriggs12]

Yeah Gasser seems well suited for the inevitable need to call up a starter.  Given that behind Peralta are Miley, who's missed a boatload of starts the last couple seasons, Junis, who hasn't had a full season as a starter since 2019, Rea who generally loses effectiveness after 5 innings, it's anyone's guess who ends up 2 through 4 a few months into the season, much less being able to predict the 5th spot.  I don't think Wilson can be ruled out either.  Nobody wants to even think about Peralta going down with an injury as he did in 2022.  I think the Brewers will be on the lookout for starting pitchers all season.

[eddiemathews]

2 hours ago, JohnBriggs12 said:

Yeah Gasser seems well suited for the inevitable need to call up a starter.  Given that behind Peralta are Miley, who's missed a boatload of starts the last couple seasons, Junis, who hasn't had a full season as a starter since 2019, Rea who generally loses effectiveness after 5 innings, it's anyone's guess who ends up 2 through 4 a few months into the season, much less being able to predict the 5th spot.  I don't think Wilson can be ruled out either.  Nobody wants to even think about Peralta going down with an injury as he did in 2022.  I think the Brewers will be on the lookout for starting pitchers all season.

For a "small fee" there are still some starters out there. Maybe Snell would like to have Sanchez as his personal catcher again...

[CheezWizHed]

Both Hall and Ashby probably will need to be innings limited, so starting Hall initially with Ashby in the pen, then swapping them later makes sense to me.  Hall should have every opportunity to start so that the Brewer's pitching clinic has a chance to fix him; probably all this year and next offseason. 

Ashby just needs to build up innings and show he can stay healthy.

Ross and Gasser will get their chances due to injuries or ineffectiveness of others... but will probably start in the BP and AAA respectively. 

[eddiemathews]

56 minutes ago, CheezWizHed said:

Both Hall and Ashby probably will need to be innings limited, so starting Hall initially with Ashby in the pen, then swapping them later makes sense to me.  Hall should have every opportunity to start so that the Brewer's pitching clinic has a chance to fix him; probably all this year and next offseason. 

Ashby just needs to build up innings and show he can stay healthy.

Ross and Gasser will get their chances due to injuries or ineffectiveness of others... but will probably start in the BP and AAA respectively. 

Ashby needs to do a lot more than that. He needs to show that he has recovered enough to pitch effectively. That may take quite a bit of time in the minors. 

[CheezWizHed]

2 hours ago, eddiemathews said:

Ashby needs to do a lot more than that. He needs to show that he has recovered enough to pitch effectively. That may take quite a bit of time in the minors. 

Agreed.  I mentioned that in the other thread that him starting at AAA might happen too.  ST should shine a bright light on his recovery status.

[Brewcrew82]

I don’t think Ashby absolutely needs to start the season in the minors. If his velocity is back and he’s getting guys out, then I’d have no problem putting him in the OD bullpen.

Ashby is on the shortlist of guys I’m really paying attention to this ST and caring about the stats.