2024 Milwaukee Brewers Positional Preview: Center Field

[David Go]

The Milwaukee Brewers have a logjam in center field, so who will step up? Jackson Chourio has the highest expectations, but the least experience. Sal Frelick may be the most polished, but could spend more time in the infield. Will Garrett Mitchell finally establish himself as an everyday player?

Image courtesy of © Rick Scuteri-USA TODAY Sports

The Brewers’ center-field torch has been carried by some of its franchise greats. From Gorman Thomas to Robin Yount and from Carlos Gómez to Lorenzo Cain, the tradition is rich. That torch will soon be carried by Jackson Chourio, who has the potential to be (dare I say it?) the best of them all. But will he carry it as soon as 2024? Let’s look at the Brewers’ options to patrol the position this year.

Candidates (Note: DRS figures based only on time in CF)

Jackson Chourio
Age (as of 7/1/24): 20
2023 (AA-AAA): 583 PA, .283/.338/.467, 22 HR, 91 RBI, 44 SB
Notable stat: $82 million; biggest-ever guarantee to a player with no Major League experience (excluding NPB)

The 20-year-old Chourio carries the résumé of the top-of-the-class college graduate: endless potential, but limited real-world experience. Chourio was already being mentioned as a league-wide top-10 prospect after just one full season of pro ball--a season that saw the 18-year-old belt 20 home runs, steal 16 bases and post an .879 OPS across three levels. The Venezuelan teenager followed that up with the first 20/40 season in the minor leagues in nearly 20 years, playing much of the season as the Southern League’s youngest player.

According to a report Monday night from Curt Hogg of the Journal-Sentinel, Chourio will be on the Opening Day roster. If that's true, he'll surely play almost every day. The only remaining question is whether or not he'll be in center field.

Garrett Mitchell
Age: 25
2023 (MLB): 73 PA, .246/.315/.446 (106 OPS+), 3 HR, 7 RBI, 1 SB, +1 DRS, 0.7 bWAR
Notable stat: 29.3 ft/sec. sprint speed (94th percentile)

Instead of establishing himself as a big-league regular, the former first-round pick spent much of the season on the shelf. Prior to the injury, Mitchell was the first of the Brewers’ crop of young outfielders to reach the majors, debuting with a .312/.373/.459 showing, ballooned by a sky-high .548 batting average on balls in play (BABIP).

The left-handed hitting Mitchell brings elite speed and up-the-middle defense, but concerns exist with the bat. He’s still appeared in just 47 big-league games, striking out in 38 percent of his plate appearances in that time. The UCLA product missed time in 2020 due to the pandemic and 2021 due to injury, resulting in just 28 Triple-A and 79 Double-A games. Mitchell still has the floor of a speed-and-defense guy you can stick in the bottom of the lineup for 2024, but the focus should be on his ceiling, and whether he can reach it.

Sal Frelick
Age: 24
2023 (MLB): 223 PA, .246/.341/.351 (91 OPS+), 3 HR, 24 RBI, 7 SB, +2 DRS, 1.2 bWAR
Notable stat: 28:37 BB:K

Among the most unexpected storylines this spring has been the Frelick-to-the-infield experiment. Pat Murphy indicated he could be the Brewers’ left-handed option at third base, but it still allows room for him to roam the outfield.

Frelick, considered the organization's premier defender up the middle until Chourio’s emergence, showed his ability on that side of the ball with an above-average showing in both center and right field in his first taste of the show. Consensus says that Chourio is the best defensive center fielder among the four former top prospects, but Frelick may be close behind. Because of the Brewers’ depth, signs are pointing to a year wherein Frelick alternates between the dirt and the grass.

The 5-foot-10 Frelick merely held his own in his first foray against big league pitching, hitting .246 without much power. But under the surface, he showed signs of life. Never much of a power threat, the former top prospect was well above average in making contact (14.6 Whiff%), limiting strikeouts (16.6 K%) and taking walks (12.6 BB%). Just a year ago, MLB Pipeline gave Frelick a 70-grade hit tool, indicating a future .300+ hitter. His brief 2023 showing laid the foundation for that skillset.

The newly-ordained super utility player should garner everyday playing time, whether at third base or in the outfield, but it’s looking like the split may favor the infield dirt.

Joey Wiemer
Age: 25
2023 (MLB): 410 PA, .204/.283/.362 (76 OPS+), 13 HR, 42 RBI, 11 SB, +1 DRS, 0.9 bWAR
Notable stat: .815 OPS vs. LHP, .568 OPS vs. RHP

The wild-swinging Wiemer quieted his swing during the offseason, returning with a more palatable operation that could lead to more contact. More contact will be the key to playing time for the 25-year-old, who hit just .204 and struck out in 28% of his plate appearances in 2023. If Wiemer hits even .235 and taps into his immense raw power, he would be an above-average regular.

Wiemer, possessing the same speed-and-defense skills as Mitchell but moving less gracefully, proved himself the superior defender in right field, while Frelick and Mitchell had as good or better or showings roaming center. His big advantage comes in his ability against left-handed pitchers. Frelick hit just .184 against lefthanders last year, and the Brewers rarely allowed Mitchell to face southpaws. On the contrary, Wiemer hit lefties to the tune of an .815 OPS and 7 home runs in 121 plate appearances.

Wiemer appears best suited to start against lefties, taking a lesser role against righties. If the Brewers want Wiemer to get everyday at-bats, optioning him to Triple-A could pay off in the long run.

Blake Perkins
Age: 27
2023 (MLB): 168 PA, .217/.325/.350/.675 (86 OPS+), 4 HR, 20 RBI, 5 SB, +3 DRS, 1.2 bWAR
Notable stat: +8 OAA; .368 OBP/.400 SLG in 2nd half

The switch-hitting Perkins found his groove late in 2023, stepping up as Wiemer faded down the stretch. The 27-year-old doesn’t carry the same prospect pedigree as the previous four on the list, but he outperformed Mitchell and Wiemer and equaled Frelick in bWAR in 2023.

Like the previously mentioned outfielders, Perkins boasts elite speed (99th-percentile Sprint Speed, according to Statcast) and defense (+8 OAA in a part-time role), but carries question marks with the bat. Despite hitting just .217, he takes his walks and is tapping into some gap-to-gap power as he enters his 10th professional season.

Perkins isn’t an everyday center fielder, but he could get some playing time if the Brewers decide to option Wiemer to start the year. He profiles as an ideal fourth or fifth outfielder.

With four options to man center field who were among last year’s top 100 prospects, competition for playing time will be stiff. Do the Brewers mix and match their options to optimize platoon advantages, or stick Chourio out there and check back after a month or two of playing time? Given the Brewers’ abundance of center fielders, we may see three true center fielders roaming the American Family outfield at once. Regardless, the battle for center field could be the biggest storyline as camp comes to a close.

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[jay87shot]

I would guess Chourio plays CF to start the year, maybe he plays some left when Yeli DH. It probably depends on how much 3B Sal plays as well. I would guess the OF alignment will be very fluid to give everyone maximum reps, it is nice to have 4 young OF who can play all 3 spots well. 

I still think Perkins to a team like SD makes a lot of sense, he is just so blocked and played very well for us. Roller and Hicklen look like fine emergency guys if we get 2 or 3 OF injuries and we still have Miller and Bauer who can play some OF as well.

[Trax]

2 hours ago, jay87shot said:

I would guess Chourio plays CF to start the year, maybe he plays some left when Yeli DH. It probably depends on how much 3B Sal plays as well. I would guess the OF alignment will be very fluid to give everyone maximum reps, it is nice to have 4 young OF who can play all 3 spots well. 

I still think Perkins to a team like SD makes a lot of sense, he is just so blocked and played very well for us. Roller and Hicklen look like fine emergency guys if we get 2 or 3 OF injuries and we still have Miller and Bauer who can play some OF as well.

Agreed on all points.  I truly believe we have a real need for a starting pitcher, and it would be really nice to get a younger one with upside who is ready to start in MLB.  That, would take some treasure back.  We have a young outfielder to trade in either Weimer or Mitchell.  Perkins can be our 4th or 5th in that event.  Even if we had to add another lower ranked prospect with Mitchell or Weimer, a young controllable ready arm may be worth it. 

[rafa]

Frelick is indeed a very polished outfielder.  Still, while the Crew has many very good defensive players in CF, the only one who is elite is Mitchell and it's not even close.  Not that the announcing team (BA, Schroeder, Dillard, etc) are infallible, but they too have made that point a number of times.

[sveumrules]

16 minutes ago, rafa said:

Frelick is indeed a very polished outfielder.  Still, while the Crew has many very good defensive players in CF, the only one who is elite is Mitchell and it's not even close.  Not that the announcing team (BA, Schroeder, Dillard, etc) are infallible, but they too have made that point a number of times.

Going to need a larger sample from everybody, but so far the various metrics have been least impressed by Mitchell...

Wiemer (1,026 innings)
+5 DRS | +6.6 UZR | +8 OAA

Frelick (446 innings)
+6 DRS | +4.5 UZR | +7 OAA

Perkins (400 innings)
+11 DRS | +7.9 UZR | +7 OAA

Mitchell (332 innings)
+4 DRS | +2.2 UZR | +2 OAA  

[Doug B]

On 3/19/2024 at 12:02 PM, Trax said:

We have a young outfielder to trade in either Weimer or Mitchell.  Perkins can be our 4th or 5th in that event.  Even if we had to add another lower ranked prospect with Mitchell or Weimer, a young controllable ready arm may be worth it. 

If you want a young controllable ready arm that is any good, you are including a good prospect. Nobody is beating down the door for Wiemer. Mitchell maybe has value but is coming off an injury and has a concerning strikeout rate. 

[Trax]

On 3/21/2024 at 3:10 PM, Doug B said:

If you want a young controllable ready arm that is any good, you are including a good prospect. Nobody is beating down the door for Wiemer. Mitchell maybe has value but is coming off an injury and has a concerning strikeout rate. 

I get that, that's why I said another prospect of value.  Just an idea.  I'd rather they just spend the money and sign Monty...