After A Strenuous First Start, It's Apparent Brewers Starter DL Hall Is A Work In Progress

[Jack Stern]

DL Hall allowed just two runs but labored through four innings in his first start of the season. The outing was a reminder that there will be some early bumps as Hall adjusts to life as a big-league starting pitcher.

Image courtesy of © Wendell Cruz-USA TODAY Sports

DL Hall’s official Brewers debut was a productive one by measure of runs allowed. He held the New York Mets to two runs in four innings, and his team won 7-6 to remain undefeated in the young season.

It was not an efficient outing, though. Hall labored through those four innings, allowing nine baserunners and requiring 73 pitches to record 12 outs. He induced just five swings and misses, including none against his fastball.

That fastball was short a few ticks of velocity compared to when Hall pitched out of the Baltimore Orioles bullpen last year. His heater averaged 95.6 mph last season but sat at 92.1 on Saturday.

The loss of velocity in longer stints was not unexpected, but it highlights the importance of Hall successfully commanding and sequencing his entire arsenal to find success as a starting pitcher. In his first big-league start since 2022, he struggled on those fronts and looked like an inexperienced starter trying to find his footing.

Hall issued two walks but was in the strike zone a decent amount. 61.6% of his pitches were strikes, and 59% were in the zone. However, poor command was a theme throughout his afternoon. Many of Hall’s offerings were either over the heart of the plate or missed so far out of the zone that they were uncompetitive pitches.

That lack of execution kept hitters in the driver’s seat, even when he got ahead. Hall reached 0-2 counts to four of the first five hitters he faced, and three of them reached base. Most of the pitches Hall threw in those 0-2 counts were poorly located.

Brandon Nimmo went with a slider too close to the zone for a base hit, Francisco Lindor hit a hard lineout on a belt-high curveball, a waste pitch curveball hit Pete Alonso, and Starling Marte fouled off a series of fastballs over the plate as he worked a walk.

New York recorded six hits against Hall, all on pitches that caught far too much of the plate.

Hall’s first official appearance as a Brewer shouldn't discourage anyone about his outlook, but it is a reminder that many hurlers face a learning curve as they try to establish themselves as big-league starting pitchers.

The 25-year-old still showed fleeting glimpses of his promise on the mound, particularly when he struck out Nimmo in the second inning on a series of well-placed sliders. Hall remains a key piece of the rotation and can have a strong 2024 season when the dust settles. However, there will be some bumps in the early going, and that's okay. It's a necessary part of the development process. Hall is not yet a finished product.

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[SandyTolan]

Nice piece, Jack.  You mentioned the dropoff in velocity as a starter, rather than reliever, is to be expected.  But from 95/96 to 92?  That seems a little drastic.  Do you think we can expect increases in velo as the weather warms and Hall's arm gets looser?

[SF70]

Yeah, 92 isn’t going to cut it. I thought he was sitting 93-95 in ST before his last couple of outings, but maybe I’m misremembering.

Hoping as the season moves along his velo can get back to 94-95.

[Ro Mueller]

Hall was also a bit unlucky with some calls. Glad we held on for the win. 

 

[sveumrules]

Agree that Hall is going to be a work in progress throughout the season, my only real hope is that he stays healthy enough for say 25 GS | 115 IP and I’d take whatever results come along with it.

Think the concern over his fastball velocity might be a lil overblown given the early season weather and starter vs reliever effort levels.

Was also reminded of this blurb from Matthew Trueblood’s ST coverage breaking down how Hall’s heater doesn’t necessarily require elite velocity to be an effective pitch…

I don't like to default to Stuff+ or PitchingBot, a pair of models designed to boil down the quality of a given offering to a single number using data about release point and movement. I think pitching is much more nuanced and interesting than that. I do find it fascinating, though, that those two models disagree sharply about Hall's fastball. Somewhat famously, multiple outlets who put scouting (non-quantitative) grades on players gave Hall an 80 (the very top of the scale) to the lefty's heater. 

PitchingBot, which is on the scouting scale (20-80), comes fairly close to affirming that, at 68. It ranked Hall's as the 20th-best fastball in baseball last year, of 727 qualifying pitchers. Stuff+, though, is much less impressed. That number is scaled to 100, where that figure is average and higher is better. Hall comes in at just 101, above average but far below any standard for excellence. He ranks 232nd in fastball Stuff+.

I bring this up because, when you watch Hall, it's not hard to see what the scouts saw when they slapped that high grade on him. The fastball explodes on the hitter. It's just not easy to put a finger on why that is.

I looked up Hall's percentile ranks in many categories, among lefties who threw at least 200 four-seamers, for 2023. As it turns out, while he doesn't excel in terms of sheer movement or sheer velocity, he's extraordinary in many other regards.

We're certainly used to elite fastballs grades being given to fastballs with elite velocity, and failing that, we at least expect something weird to be going on in terms of horizontal or vertical movement. Hall is more subtle than that. It's a weird horizontal angle, but also a low release point, which gives him an extreme vertical approach angle, too. His very good extension lets the raw velocity play up, and he changes speeds on the heat much more than most pitchers do. That's an especially intriguing tidbit, for such a young pitcher. 

In the context of a short Cactus League outing, it's impossible to distinguish adding and subtracting on the fastball from tiring in a second inning of work, but I thought he seemed to be doing the former, not the latter, on Sunday. Changing speeds and giving hitters such a tricky look makes up for a lot of other things, and with Hall's good (though not dominant) power, it becomes a deadly cocktail in a hurry. In a short outing Sunday, he showed everything from 93.7 MPH to 96.9 on the fastball, with accompanying changes in spin rate. That touch might be what sets the pitch apart.

[wiguy94]

20 minutes ago, sveumrules said:

Was also reminded of this blurb from Matthew Trueblood’s ST coverage breaking down how Hall’s heater doesn’t necessarily require elite velocity to be an effective pitch…

 

Trueblood's article was talking about his FB being elite at 95 not at 91-93. He had 15 swings against his FB yesterday with 0 whiffs and an average EV of 92.5 and a .428 xwOBA against. 

[Joseph Zarr]

Hall specifically addressed the Low Velo in the post-game interview. He was and is aware of it. Mentioned he absolutely sees his velo rising several ticks as the season progresses. Said it is a distinct process going from 1 IP where you can absolutely sling it versus trying to go many more innings. He also suffered from a distinct case of the pre-game jitters. SO, I guess we'll have to wait and see. 

Source here:

 

[groyce]

Scuffling through four innings without his best stuff is a positive. While I see him as a leverage reliever, the time is right to see if he is going to be more. Sustaining velocity and developing command will always be important. 93 on the paint will carry the day. 95 down the middle will not.