Sun. 4/14 - The Affiliates Play on Opposite the Burnes / Brewers Showdown

[wiguy94]

9 hours ago, Jim French Stepstool said:

.......And Chris Roller is on the 40-man & was just injured. I assume (hope) he would've gotten the call otherwise.

There are 4-5 spots I have a question with on the 40. Not that all 4 or 5 should be jettisoned, but any one of them could've made room for Hicklen. I guess if Yelich isn't IL'ed the issue will go away, but it cost them on Sunday.

Brewers are already running with a 39 man, 40-man roster for the entire season because Quero is out for the year in the minor leagues. Maybe they could have DFA’d Roller or Capra. They weren’t going to DFA any pitchers for a position player especially with all the pitcher injuries on the 40-man at the moment. 
 

Also Roller was bad before his injury. Like worse than Wiemer bad. Hicklen is way overperforming his peripherals. Hicklen had a .296 xwOBA with a .432 wOBA. Brewers will look beyond surface numbers when making these decisions and Hicklen’s surface numbers are the only thing that stand out about him currently.

 

 

[Joseph Zarr]

12 hours ago, wiguy94 said:

I feel like Boeve makes really consistent solid contact. He's just in the 10-15 LA a ton. From what I have watched so far, he's easily had the hardest contact on that Wisconsin roster.

I think, perhaps, I have seen him top several dribblers foul and it is giving me PTSD from last summer's pre-injury funk? Thanks for the reminder. I think, perhaps even more pleasantly surprising (the OBP and BA seem to almost be foregone conclusions given he is healthy and his  history) is his play at 3B. Not only has he looked quite comfy but the arm has been surprising. Much better pace than say a Metzinger whose arm never seemed adequate down the line. 

[Joseph Zarr]

5 minutes ago, wiguy94 said:

Brewers are already running with a 39 man, 40-man roster for the entire season because Quero is out for the year in the minor leagues. Maybe they could have DFA’d Roller or Capra. They weren’t going to DFA any pitchers for a position player especially with all the pitcher injuries on the 40-man at the moment. 
 

Also Roller was bad before his injury. Like worse than Wiemer bad. Hicklen is way overperforming his peripherals. Hicklen had a .296 xwOBA with a .432 wOBA. Brewers will look beyond surface numbers when making these decisions and Hicklen’s surface numbers are the only thing that stand out about him currently.

 

 

I completely forgot the 40-Man issues at stake w Wiemer. Thank you for that reminder - I almost always overlook this being deluged in the lower levels 😂. Again, thanks for that obvious facet of this I consistently overlook. 

AND, I just disagree  on the surface number remarks re: Hicklen. What do I mean? When I watch Hicklen in the batters box, I see an extremely compact and powerful swing. Very fast hands, powerful flips of the wrists. Very consistent easy mechanics. I see a fantastic base. There is no wasted movement. He may not have Wiemer's inherent power but in Wiemer - a player I have been hyping since 2022 - I just see entirely too much all or nothing and entirely too much inconsistency. Being that I advocated for Blake Perkins before he even played an inning within the Brewers organization (Yankees scouting contact - close family friend) and continued to tout him much of last season as I watched him night in and night out, I am absolutely going to trust my eyes here. And, despite what the Statcast data says, at some point in time we all need to have a conversation on actual production and end results versus the over-investment on what the data says happened historically when we are basing absolutisms on not even a 9 year set of data criteria. I'm in no way shape or form dismissing the data. I am in no way shape or form ever going to over-invest in it. 

[wiguy94]

25 minutes ago, Joseph Zarr said:

I completely forgot the 40-Man issues at stake w Wiemer. Thank you for that reminder - I almost always overlook this being deluged in the lower levels 😂. Again, thanks for that obvious facet of this I consistently overlook. 

AND, I just disagree  on the surface number remarks re: Hicklen. What do I mean? When I watch Hicklen in the batters box, I see an extremely compact and powerful swing. Very fast hands, powerful flips of the wrists. Very consistent easy mechanics. I see a fantastic base. There is no wasted movement. He may not have Wiemer's inherent power but in Wiemer - a player I have been hyping since 2022 - I just see entirely too much all or nothing and entirely too much inconsistency. Being that I advocated for Blake Perkins before he even played an inning within the Brewers organization (Yankees scouting contact - close family friend) and continued to tout him much of last season as I watched him night in and night out, I am absolutely going to trust my eyes here. And, despite what the Statcast data says, at some point in time we all need to have a conversation on actual production and end results versus the over-investment on what the data says happened historically when we are basing absolutisms on not even a 9 year set of data criteria. I'm in no way shape or form dismissing the data. I am in no way shape or form ever going to over-invest in it. 

For you I will concede that you do watch. For the vast majority of people waffling over Hicklen not being selected to the 40-man, they are strictly basing it off his numbers, so providing context for those numbers is important. Also Perkins is one of if not the best defensive outfielder in baseball. Hicklen does not provide defensive value near that level, so for him to provide value in the MLB it would need to be with the bat so his quality of contact is important. When his quality of contact isn't amazing in AAA, it's very easy to question how it would translate to the MLB.

[Joseph Zarr]

4 minutes ago, wiguy94 said:

For you I will concede that you do watch. For the vast majority of people waffling over Hicklen not being selected to the 40-man, they are strictly basing it off his numbers, so providing context for those numbers is important. Also Perkins is one of if not the best defensive outfielder in baseball. Hicklen does not provide defensive value near that level, so for him to provide value in the MLB it would need to be with the bat so his quality of contact is important. When his quality of contact isn't amazing in AAA, it's very easy to question how it would translate to the MLB.

Extremely fair and well-reasoned remarks. As per usual. Love your baseball brain.

[wiguy94]

5 minutes ago, Joseph Zarr said:

Extremely fair and well-reasoned remarks. As per usual. Love your baseball brain.

For what it's worth, I am most certainly not advocating for Wiemer being the guy called up. I wasn't a fan of that decision. I would have rather seen Owen Miller if we were bringing a guy up from the 40-man. He has some experience in the OF as well.

[Joseph Zarr]

Speaking of Boeve:

 

[Playing Catch]

What is the outcome for Boeve... like, a lefty Kevin Seitzer? There's not a lot of successful MLBers these days that are slow-footed corners that simply spray line drives, unless they are supremely gifted in that area.

[Madhawk23]

21 minutes ago, Playing Catch said:

What is the outcome for Boeve... like, a lefty Kevin Seitzer? There's not a lot of successful MLBers these days that are slow-footed corners that simply spray line drives, unless they are supremely gifted in that area.

I'm fascinated by this as well.  He's almost like the Zach Edey of MLB.  If he were born 20-30 years earlier, he'd be valued by everyone in the old MLB (just as Edey would have in the NBA), but the game has changed so much in terms of what teams value out of certain positions.  

[sveumrules]

32 minutes ago, Playing Catch said:

What is the outcome for Boeve... like, a lefty Kevin Seitzer? There's not a lot of successful MLBers these days that are slow-footed corners that simply spray line drives, unless they are supremely gifted in that area.

It's a disappearing profile for sure. If you aren't bringing anything to the table defensively, the bar for offense is so high that getting there with a bunch of singles and limited power is just a really narrow lane to make it through.

First guy that comes to mind for me is someone like Donovan Solano with a 114 AVG+ | 68 ISO+ | 131 LD%+ since 2021.

Looking at the 2021-present leaderboard (min. 1,000 PA) maybe guys like Alec Bohm (109 AVG+ | 79 ISO+ | 118 LD%+),  Ty France (111 AVG+ | 88 ISO+ | 114 LD%+) or Gio Urshela (116 AVG+ | 82 ISO+ | 114 LD%+) are in the same general bucket.

Or a guy like Robbie Grossman with a 94 AVG+ | 89 ISO+ | 117 LD%+ who is below average at getting hits/hitting for power despite the line drives, but salvages the whole thing with a ridiculous 164 BB%+.

[Ro Mueller]

2 hours ago, wiguy94 said:

For you I will concede that you do watch. For the vast majority of people waffling over Hicklen not being selected to the 40-man, they are strictly basing it off his numbers, so providing context for those numbers is important. Also Perkins is one of if not the best defensive outfielder in baseball. Hicklen does not provide defensive value near that level, so for him to provide value in the MLB it would need to be with the bat so his quality of contact is important. When his quality of contact isn't amazing in AAA, it's very easy to question how it would translate to the MLB.

Are you able to see the Statcast xwOBAs for Hicklen, Wiemer, Miller, etc.? I've been able to search for barrel rates, solid contact rates and exit velocities above 90mph using Baseball Savant, but failed using the xwOBA search.

[wiguy94]

20 minutes ago, damuelle said:

Are you able to see the Statcast xwOBAs for Hicklen, Wiemer, Miller, etc.? I've been able to search for barrel rates, solid contact rates and exit velocities above 90mph using Baseball Savant, but failed using the xwOBA search.

Here's a link to the xwOBA search I used.

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/statcast-search-minors?hfPT=&hfAB=&hfGT=R|&hfPR=&hfZ=&hfStadium=&hfBBL=&hfNewZones=&hfPull=&hfC=&hfSea=2024|&hfSit=&player_type=batter&hfOuts=&hfOpponent=&pitcher_throws=&batter_stands=&hfSA=&game_date_gt=&game_date_lt=&hfMo=&hfTeam=556|&home_road=&hfRO=&position=&hfInn=&hfBBT=&hfFlag=&hfLevel=&metric_1=&hfTeamAffiliate=&hfOpponentAffiliate=&group_by=name&min_pitches=0&min_results=0&min_pas=0&sort_col=xwoba&player_event_sort=api_p_release_speed&sort_order=desc&chk_tracked_pitch=on&chk_stats_abs=on&chk_stats_hits=on&chk_stats_xwoba=on#results

[Playing Catch]

1 hour ago, sveumrules said:

It's a disappearing profile for sure. If you aren't bringing anything to the table defensively, the bar for offense is so high that getting there with a bunch of singles and limited power is just a really narrow lane to make it through.

First guy that comes to mind for me is someone like Donovan Solano with a 114 AVG+ | 68 ISO+ | 131 LD%+ since 2021.

Looking at the 2021-present leaderboard (min. 1,000 PA) maybe guys like Alec Bohm (109 AVG+ | 79 ISO+ | 118 LD%+),  Ty France (111 AVG+ | 88 ISO+ | 114 LD%+) or Gio Urshela (116 AVG+ | 82 ISO+ | 114 LD%+) are in the same general bucket.

Or a guy like Robbie Grossman with a 94 AVG+ | 89 ISO+ | 117 LD%+ who is below average at getting hits/hitting for power despite the line drives, but salvages the whole thing with a ridiculous 164 BB%+.

It seems imperative that Boeve continues to be at least servicable at 3B and maybe even 2B and/or is able to Lyle Overbay his way to league-leading doubles power. That's a pretty good career if he can a least ISO in the .150 range and continue to take walks at a good clip.