Terrific Swing Decisions Leading the Brewers' Offense to New Heights

[Tim Muma]

The 2024 Milwaukee Brewers offense has been incredible. Heading into play on Saturday, only the Atlanta Braves had scored more runs per game than the Crew. A significant part of the Brewers' success comes from the lineup's improved swing decisions.

Image courtesy of © Katie Stratman-USA TODAY Sports

A portion of the Milwaukee Brewers' fanbase thought this offense could be "sneaky good" this season as they rolled out a new-look, more diverse lineup than previous years. But anyone who says they believed the Brewers would average 6.33 runs per game through the first 12 contests is a liar. Yes, it's a small sample size, and it's absurd to think they will score more than a half-dozen times per game all year. However, it isn't a fluke after Milwaukee's 11-5 victory on Saturday marked six straight games with seven or more runs scored (tying a franchise record).

One immediate trend that stands out is the Brewers' improvement in swing decisions. Hitting is extremely challenging, but you can make it easier on yourself by swinging at more strikes and laying off pitches outside the zone. Milwaukee's hitters are still among the more patient clubs in baseball, just as they have been in the past few years. Choosing when to remain patient and take a hack is just as important. 

(Statistical Key for the chart below)

• O-Swing%: Percent of times swinging at pitches outside the strike zone
• Z-Swing%: Percent of times swinging at pitches within the strike zone
• Z-Contact%: Percent of times contact is made on swings within the strike zone

Cutting off four percent on swings outside the strike zone is enormous, particularly throughout an entire season. By not chasing those pitches, hitters can enjoy numerous benefits within a plate appearance. 

The obvious advantage for a batter is getting himself into better counts to do damage. Taking a close 1-0 fastball for a ball or laying off a tough breaking ball off the plate in a 1-1 count gives the hitter a huge edge. Now, the batter can look for his pitch and location to attack instead of being on the defensive and swinging at a "pitcher's pitch." When hitters are ahead in the count and able to get the bat head out, they barrel up more pitches - a key to consistently hard contact and quality slugging percentages. This year, Milwaukee ranks 9th in Barrel% (9.1%), while last year they finished 22nd (7.4%). On the flip side, when a hitter is behind, he either waits too long trying to recognize a pitch or expands his zone for fear of striking out looking.

Additionally, because the Brewers have taken a bunch more balls out of the zone, their contact with them has improved when they swing at strikes. Though they only swing one percent more often at strikes this season, they've increased contact on those pitches by more than one-and-a-half percent, up to 15th in baseball (22nd last year). These improvements are already paying dividends, as evidenced by the scoring output, so imagine what could happen across 6,000 plate appearances. While some regression will happen, these statistics tend to be more stable than others that fluctuate or indicate "luck."

Another reason this early-season outburst is promising over the long haul is that the improved discipline, particularly laying off pitches out of the zone, is almost across the board compared to last season. And in some cases, the upgrade is substantial. Whether it's the same player from 2023 or a new face in 2024, the O-Swing% decrease is stunning.

Returners

• Willy Adames: 33% -> 21.4%
• Sal Frelick: 31.1% -> 23.4%
• Christian Yelich: 25.1% -> 21.6%
• Brice Turang: 27.4% -> 25%
• William Contreras: 24.6% -> 23.5%

Previous Brewers vs. Newcomers

• Tyrone Taylor (35.2%) -> Jake Bauers (19.5%)
• Owen Miller (32%) -> Rhys Hoskins (17.3%)
• Joey Wiemer (28.8%) -> Oliver Dunn (13.5%)
• Brian Anderson (28.3%) -> Joey Ortiz (17.3%)

When you look at those numbers, think of how many more strikes were racked up on Brewers' hitters last season because they were chasing wildly. Not to mention, when swinging at pitches out of the zone, a batter is more likely to make weak contact and more often result in an out. The benefits of discipline have many tentacles.

The beauty of what the lineup is doing thus far is that it makes pitching around certain hitters more challenging. Instead of having gaping holes with batters who will chase and get themselves out, a majority of Brewers batters are putting together quality at-bats. Getting ahead in counts allows them to remain patient on strikes on the fringes of the zone, the attack mistakes in their wheelhouses. 

It's been incredibly fun to watch the first two weeks. In theory, these quality approaches will provide more peaks and fewer valleys than we've seen with past Brewers' offenses. Is it the influence of manager Pat Murphy? Have the new hitters rubbed off on some of the returning guys? There likely isn't one answer, but it has been a sight to see. Now, throw in a bunch of stolen bases thanks to their team speed and add a little more power than a year ago, and suddenly, this club appears far more dangerous than many pundits thought before Opening Day.

View full article

[Profbratsch]

Cutting off four percent on swings outside the strike zone is enormous, particularly throughout an entire season. By not chasing those pitches, hitters can enjoy numerous benefits within a plate appearance.

You forgot the qualifier—provided that Angel Hernandez is not calling balls and strikes… 😉

[Underachiever]

This is really interesting. I enjoyed reading it, and hope that we can get updates on this as the season continues. 

The last few seasons it has seemed as if Brewer hitters found themselves in an 0-2 count on a lot of at-bats. I remember checking and seeing that they started in an 0-2 count 20 times in a single game. 

[yourout]

Besides the improved approaches I see improved mechanics.

Less pre-swing movement and not as extreme launch angles. (Adames is the exception)

[Samurai Bucky]

Fantastic post!  I like how the k% has gone down from 2022 to 2024:  23.9%, 23.2%, and 22.0%.  Team exit velo is still slightly above 88 (88.7 for 2022, 88.0, and 88.1).

I know they have been fighting off a lot of pitches, but was surprised they are lower in Pitches  per Plate Appearance (P/PA) is the lowest it has been in three years (3.91 for 2024 vs. 4.05 and 4.02 for 2022 and 2023).

Let's see how they are at the 40 game mark.  Hopefully the good approaches at the plate continue.

[wiguy94]

Here's a good illustration for how the approaches have improved for returning Brewers players.

Baseball savant has a swing/take stat that judges hitters approaches based on if they swing/take for pitches in certain zones. Swing/take is also an accumulation stat.

Here are 2023 numbers vs 2024 numbers vs 2024 numbers if prorated to 2023 pitch number for returning Brewers hitters

Conteras - +19 vs +11 vs +112
Adames - -2 vs +5 vs +52
Frelick - -8 vs +3 vs +13
Turang - -22 vs +3 vs +28
Yelich - +27 vs +7 vs +95
Perkins - -2 vs +3 vs +18

FYI I am not prorating saying they will continue at their current rates. I just prorated because it's an accumulation stat so the proration will better show how significant of a gap their is between 2023 and the SSS 2024.

Every returning hitter (didn't include Monasterio because he's hardly played) has showed dramatic approach improvement. 

[Tim Muma]

1 hour ago, wiguy94 said:

Here's a good illustration for how the approaches have improved for returning Brewers players.

Baseball savant has a swing/take stat that judges hitters approaches based on if they swing/take for pitches in certain zones. Swing/take is also an accumulation stat.

Here are 2023 numbers vs 2024 numbers vs 2024 numbers if prorated to 2023 pitch number for returning Brewers hitters

Conteras - +19 vs +11 vs +112
Adames - -2 vs +5 vs +52
Frelick - -8 vs +3 vs +13
Turang - -22 vs +3 vs +28
Yelich - +27 vs +7 vs +95
Perkins - -2 vs +3 vs +18

FYI I am not prorating saying they will continue at their current rates. I just prorated because it's an accumulation stat so the proration will better show how significant of a gap their is between 2023 and the SSS 2024.

Every returning hitter (didn't include Monasterio because he's hardly played) has showed dramatic approach improvement. 

I appreciate you adding this in the comments. I contemplated including some of the swing/take values along with a graphic or two...but then I thought it'd be overkill. But it's cool you're adding to the post to give readers another look, but it doesn't make my post too long or "too much."

[GasserFace]

On Sunday the broadcast team mentioned that Rickie Weeks was the ‘offensive coordinator’. He is supposedly building simple plans for each pitcher. For example against Burnes anything starting over the outer third was an auto take. The offense was successful until CB started to adjust.

I’m curious if anyone else heard that and how this might be different from previous seasons. Great article Tim!!

[Tim Muma]

8 hours ago, GasserFace said:

On Sunday the broadcast team mentioned that Rickie Weeks was the ‘offensive coordinator’. He is supposedly building simple plans for each pitcher. For example against Burnes anything starting over the outer third was an auto take. The offense was successful until CB started to adjust.

I’m curious if anyone else heard that and how this might be different from previous seasons. Great article Tim!!

I didn't hear that (I only saw a small portion of the game). I think that is great. As a coach, I prefer that type of simple plan in most cases. Obviously as I coach youth players, you don't have ALL the information MLB players do. But having a plan of attack is important, even if it is simple. And sometimes, I do think it's paralysis by analysis for big league hitters instead of trusting their instincts and talent.

 

[Kripes - Brewers]

Interesting analysis here, but my guess is that extended at bats by fouling off pitches skews the results. When you get a free-swinger guy like Frelick up there, it seems like he gets behind fairly often, and that can be ok if he's good at spoiling pitches. He does a good job of raising the pitch count and tiring out that pitcher. Problem is, you have to swing at anything close in order to foul it off and stay alive, thus artificially raising that O-swing. The O-swing looks good for now, which leads us to believe they've got a collective "good-eye" or at least a fair bit better than last year to this point. Arguably, leaving a full third of pitches in the zone go through for a strike seems like a lot of missed opportunities, and then it looks like they're whiffing on a full 20% that they do swing at. Plenty of room for improvement for sure. It would be fascinating to see these numbers when a player (Yelich or Adames for instance) in the midst of a hot streak versus when that same player is mired in a slump changes.

[Playing Catch]

How many games/ABs are needed before those numbers stabilize?