2024 - 25 Wisconsin Basketball Thread

[stoutdude04]

3 seed in Denver with the 6 being BYU. Ouch.

[yourout]

I'm many ways today's game was lost on senior day. 

That extra game killed them.

[CheezWizHed]

1 hour ago, Jim French Stepstool said:

Always a good idea to go inside-out. I think there have been situations this year when Crowl could slide down later in the clock. But most of the threes were pretty good looks. They're also real super-cognizant of keeping the lane open for Blackwell & Tonje, I'm sure that has something to do with it.

Yeah, but you don't have to do it all the time.  Drives went no where in the first half and 3ptrs were a struggle all game long.  Got to try something.  Plus, putting more foul pressure on Goldin. 

I did think Goldin was gifted a foul at the end to take the lead and then they swallowed the whistle on the other end with similar contact.  Evenly called game overall, but that seemed like a bail out. 

[Cool Hand Lucroy]

5 hours ago, Jim French Stepstool said:

Agree.

I have to admit to being wrong. Selection committee chair said on CBSSN that there WAS a contingency bracket based on the B1G title game. No idea where it had the Badgers, and that genuinely shocks me, but there it is. I was wrong.

On the game:

We got the shots we wanted but didn't make them. Period, end of story.

If I had to pick one thing, tied at 53-53 with 1:34 left, Michigan got two free throws after three possessions and gave the ball back to Wisconsin with 46 secs left (might have been 49?). I thought we had chances there, but just couldn't come away with the ball. A few other rebounds off missed free throws helped Michigan too. Not much else to say. Sometimes, that's basketball.

On the Badgers NCAA tourney spot:

I hate playing Thursday afternoon at altitude when this team looked gassed today. Oof. And BYU goes ten deep and also plays its home games at altitude (albeit maybe 800 ft. lower than Denver). That's pretty brutal.

I also think VCU is closer to an 8 than an 11 (top 30 KenPom), so our pod has three LEGIT S16 contenders. 

Good news is Montana is rated as the worst 14 by far. More than that, they'd be the worst 15 seed per Pomeroy. That's a misseeded team. Clearly benefits Wisconsin. Losing to them would be horrendous. We can lose to anyone shooting 20 percent from the field, but Montana will rightfully be a massive dog.

Bigger picture, no one in this region scares me, especially if Duke isn't healthy. Alabama is three-point dependent and has been inconsistent, plus they are a good matchup for us. They'll let us run and get looks. That would come down to who shoots better. Everyone else in the top half is about what you'd expect, and I'm thrilled to avoid a team like Tennessee or even Saint John's.

So, some good, some bad. Would I switch with Iowa State given the chance? I don't know. Lipscomb is BY FAR the best 14, so the odds of a first round upset would go up, but I like the placement in Milwaukee and Friday game much better. Plus, I'd rather face Ole Miss or NC than BYU. But I'd want no part of SDSU. Probably a wash in the end.

Overall bracket thoughts:

The committee really leaned into the advanced metrics this year. That's the only way you can justify UNC in the field. They went 1-12 in Q1 and have a Q3 loss. Come on, man. Meanwhile, you're leaving out a West Virginia team with 6 Q1 wins and a nearly identical Wins Above Bubble rank. No idea how you justify that other than committee logic. 

Similar story with the Big Ten seedings. Purdue's 4, Michigan's 5, and Illinois' 6 are all roughly in line with their predictive numbers. So is Maryland's 4, though I think that's a miss. Watching Purdue lately, I'm licking my chops if I'm in that pod, but maybe that's a team that benefits getting outside the B1G.

I think the committee booted UNC and otherwise made pretty consistent choices. Xavier getting in surprises me, given how little regard the Big East had. I'd have WV and Indiana ahead of both them and NC. But at that point in the bracket, I guess you're just talking about kinds of mediocrity.

To close on the Badgers, the NCAAT's generally tighter whistle and more free-flowing style SHOULD help. I also have a lot of faith in our scout, so getting out of the B1G will hopefully pay dividends.

Best time of the sports year, man. Let's go.

EDIT: to add that the VCU and Gonzaga seeds are terrible. How the committee continues to not understand small conferences is baffling. Why you apply predictives so hard to schools like UNC or Illinois (who really doesn't have a six-seed profile, I don't think) but can't to Gonzaga or VCU is kind of stunning.

[LouisEly]

2 hours ago, stoutdude04 said:

3 seed in Denver with the 6 being BYU. Ouch.

"All the bad teams are on spring break."

-Greg Gard

[Jim French Stepstool]

6 hours ago, CheezWizHed said:

Yeah, but you don't have to do it all the time.  Drives went no where in the first half and 3ptrs were a struggle all game long.  Got to try something.  Plus, putting more foul pressure on Goldin. 

I did think Goldin was gifted a foul at the end to take the lead and then they swallowed the whistle on the other end with similar contact.  Evenly called game overall, but that seemed like a bail out. 

I don't disagree with that. I understand why it doesn't happen more often but yeah, your 7-ft SR post guy who is 3rd on the team in points scored, you'd like to see him get a few more opportunities. I suspect there are times he has the option to slide down low & just doesn't. In this particular game, I also suspect they felt Crowl might have chances from the arc. And he did, but then shoot the ball. He only put up 3 from out there.

I agree re making Goldin defend down low. Wolf, too.

[Oxy]

Great post @Cool Hand Lucroy.  I concur with everything.

At first I was annoyed by the Thursday game with the travel, but that is like 98% influenced by the fact that UW shot 22% today and because the Milwaukee/Friday placing would have been SO ideal.  Other than the shooting, I thought they looked pretty good and moved well.  It was an up and down, intense game and the defense was on point for the most part, so it didn't LOOK like they were tired-- it just became the common excuse for shooting that bad.  It's not the committee's fault the times and locations could have worked out so nicely for UW.

They won't be tired on Thursday.  If they had to play Tuesday, it might be an issue, but these kids will be fine by Thursday.  Montana isn't very good and looks like a good matchup.

The seeding and matchups are great--A LOT better than oh, say a Michigan, Maryland, VCU, or Louisville/Auburn got.  And as long as they win on Thursday I like having the game right off the bat during the opening window for games.

As far as the committee having "contingency brackets" depending upon the result of the B1G Championship game--both Matt Norlander and Gary Parrish (CBS guys) said later on their podcast that they think that was a lie.

Trying to reconcile seeding with BOTH resume metrics like WAB/Quadrant W-L records AND predictive metrics (overall efficiancy margins(kenpom and Torvik/T-rank)) is an impossible task--particularly this year.  Is Gonzaga as good as the computer's say? Or as good as their record says?  Same with North Carolina, who can ONLY be justified by predictive metrics.

 

Glad I'm not a West Virginia fan.

[Jim French Stepstool]

3 hours ago, Cool Hand Lucroy said:

I have to admit to being wrong. Selection committee chair said on CBSSN that there WAS a contingency bracket based on the B1G title game. No idea where it had the Badgers, and that genuinely shocks me, but there it is. I was wrong.

On the game:

We got the shots we wanted but didn't make them. Period, end of story.

If I had to pick one thing, tied at 53-53 with 1:34 left, Michigan got two free throws after three possessions and gave the ball back to Wisconsin with 46 secs left (might have been 49?). I thought we had chances there, but just couldn't come away with the ball. A few other rebounds off missed free throws helped Michigan too. Not much else to say. Sometimes, that's basketball.

On the Badgers NCAA tourney spot:

I hate playing Thursday afternoon at altitude when this team looked gassed today. Oof. And BYU goes ten deep and also plays its home games at altitude (albeit maybe 800 ft. lower than Denver). That's pretty brutal.

I also think VCU is closer to an 8 than an 11 (top 30 KenPom), so our pod has three LEGIT S16 contenders. 

Good news is Montana is rated as the worst 14 by far. More than that, they'd be the worst 15 seed per Pomeroy. That's a misseeded team. Clearly benefits Wisconsin. Losing to them would be horrendous. We can lose to anyone shooting 20 percent from the field, but Montana will rightfully be a massive dog.

Bigger picture, no one in this region scares me, especially if Duke isn't healthy. Alabama is three-point dependent and has been inconsistent, plus they are a good matchup for us. They'll let us run and get looks. That would come down to who shoots better. Everyone else in the top half is about what you'd expect, and I'm thrilled to avoid a team like Tennessee or even Saint John's.

So, some good, some bad. Would I switch with Iowa State given the chance? I don't know. Lipscomb is BY FAR the best 14, so the odds of a first round upset would go up, but I like the placement in Milwaukee and Friday game much better. Plus, I'd rather face Ole Miss or NC than BYU. But I'd want no part of SDSU. Probably a wash in the end.

Overall bracket thoughts:

The committee really leaned into the advanced metrics this year. That's the only way you can justify UNC in the field. They went 1-12 in Q1 and have a Q3 loss. Come on, man. Meanwhile, you're leaving out a West Virginia team with 6 Q1 wins and a nearly identical Wins Above Bubble rank. No idea how you justify that other than committee logic. 

Similar story with the Big Ten seedings. Purdue's 4, Michigan's 5, and Illinois' 6 are all roughly in line with their predictive numbers. So is Maryland's 4, though I think that's a miss. Watching Purdue lately, I'm licking my chops if I'm in that pod, but maybe that's a team that benefits getting outside the B1G.

I think the committee booted UNC and otherwise made pretty consistent choices. Xavier getting in surprises me, given how little regard the Big East had. I'd have WV and Indiana ahead of both them and NC. But at that point in the bracket, I guess you're just talking about kinds of mediocrity.

To close on the Badgers, the NCAAT's generally tighter whistle and more free-flowing style SHOULD help. I also have a lot of faith in our scout, so getting out of the B1G will hopefully pay dividends.

Best time of the sports year, man. Let's go.

EDIT: to add that the VCU and Gonzaga seeds are terrible. How the committee continues to not understand small conferences is baffling. Why you apply predictives so hard to schools like UNC or Illinois (who really doesn't have a six-seed profile, I don't think) but can't to Gonzaga or VCU is kind of stunning.

I suppose they aren't going to flat-out lie about it, but It's hard for me to imagine them having a contingency bracket. I guess, if they say so.........I know they mentioned a contingency for if UAB beat Memphis, that it would've knocked out UNC. Maybe UW gets Milwaukee over ISU or UK had they won? AFA who UW is podded with, I think the only grouping I'd rather be in as a 3 would be UK's, and that isn't possible w/Illinois there as a 6. Now, when you throw in the geography, yeah, BYU in Denver does them no favors. If they DO make it to the 2nd weekend, I agree Alabama isn't a bad #2 to face compared to the others.

Haven't studied the bracket real hard yet, but one thing that stuck out to me right off the bat for a potential upset is High Point-Purdue. Boilers just look to be running on fumes at times.

Agree totally about the Michigan possession late in the game that was timed not with a shot clock but a calendar, Just couldn't get the stop no matter what they did. Quite possibly the most important sequence of the game.

I'm not a big follower of the "quad 1, quad 2" thing. But 1-12 in quad one games, and you dance? Uh, no.

Something about Hepburn & Louisville being put in an 8/9 game w/Houston on deck made me smile.

[Jim French Stepstool]

15 minutes ago, Oxy said:

 

As far as the committee having "contingency brackets" depending upon the result of the B1G Championship game--both Matt Norlander and Gary Parrish (CBS guys) said later on their podcast that they think that was a lie.

 

 

 

I find that interesting, and not without merit.

During his presser after Saturdays' game, Izzo said when he's done coaching he wants to get on the selection committee. He's a real anti-analytic, pro eye-test guy. I'd love to see it happen, just for the headaches he'd cause.😁

[Oxy]

5 minutes ago, Jim French Stepstool said:

 

Something about Hepburn & Louisville being put in an 8/9 game w/Houston on deck made me smile.

They would get to play Auburn in Lexington though, which is like an hour's drive away.  Pretty crappy for Auburn to have to face a severely underseeded team an hour from their HUGE, rejuvenated fanbase.

Both Auburn and Louisville could be pissed.

[Jim French Stepstool]

3 minutes ago, Oxy said:

They would get to play Auburn in Lexington though, which is like an hour's drive away.  Pretty crappy for Auburn to have to face a severely underseeded team an hour from their HUGE, rejuvenated fanbase.

Both Auburn and Louisville could be pissed.

My bad. I saw a listing that incorrectly had LU/Creighton facing Houston. I actually was half-expecting to see UW facing the Cards in a 3 vs 6.

[Playing Catch]

Thanks to Cool Hand and Oxy for calming me down a little bit. I was real pissy about Thursday in Denver. I like playing the "worst" 14-seed. That makes playing at altitude on Thursday a little easier to swallow, as there is NOTHING worse than losing on Thursday afternoon.

The BYU thing also really bothered me. This possible matchup would be the inverse of the 2003-2004 Pitt-Badger matchup. This time, the Badgers are the tough 3-seed, and BYU is the underseeded 6 seed playing in their backyard (kinda).

[Cool Hand Lucroy]

Love these thoughtful posts. Like @Oxy said, how you weight the predictive versus resume-based metrics is a major challenge. You can justify all kinds of ways of doing it, and every committee member probably has their own unique weighting. It's impossible to have consistent logic given the way the committee selects and seeds the tournament. I wish we'd just acknowledge that, rather than having the committee chair go on TV and spout what is essentially a lot of nonsense and bad-faith arguments. It's an imperfect process. You just hope to do it as fairly as possible.

I have some issues with seeding in several places, but that always happens. I'll defend the "UNC doesn't belong" position quite hard, though. That feels like an avoidable error. I mean, if 8-0 in Quad 2 is what gets you into the tourney, that's crazy. Indiana was undefeated in Q2 with FOUR TIMES as many Q1 wins. Heck, Iowa went 6-0 in Q2 with more Q1 wins than UNC. To be fair, I would make the same critique of Xavier. I guess they gave the Musketeers a lot of leeway for the Fremantle injury. UNC has no such excuse. It's always hard to determine those last four spots. Usually, it's six of one, half dozen of another. Here, though, I think this is clearly the less defensible options, and it's needlessly complicated by the committee chair being the UNC AD. WVU and Indiana have serious gripes.

On a more positive note, both BYU and VCU are good teams. VCU is better than a typical eleven, but we're very similar to BYU, only we play better defense. And we defend at about the level of VCU, only we play better offense. Sure, you'd prefer to have worse teams in there. I think there are worse 6s and 11s. But matchup wise, these are pretty decent draws. And we'll be favored against either team, probably by two possessions. Narrow margins in March, but this is what you want.

 

[Playing Catch]

The consideration for injuries needs to just go away.

I get it. But considering it simply introduces fairness issues, and what's "fair" for one team, is "unfair" to their opponent, or vice-versa.

edit to add:  Life isn't fair, and sometimes sports aren't fair. And when the world only cares about fairness for the top teams, I get pretty twitchy, because I think most of those pushes come from the gambling industry. I'm not opposed to technology such as robo-strike-zone, or goal-line technology in soccer, or hawkeye in tennis. But video-assisted refereeing for subjective calls (fouls/penalties) needs to be eliminated.

[Jim French Stepstool]

2 hours ago, Cool Hand Lucroy said:

 

I have some issues with seeding in several places, but that always happens. I'll defend the "UNC doesn't belong" position quite hard, though. That feels like an avoidable error. I mean, if 8-0 in Quad 2 is what gets you into the tourney, that's crazy. Indiana was undefeated in Q2 with FOUR TIMES as many Q1 wins. Heck, Iowa went 6-0 in Q2 with more Q1 wins than UNC. To be fair, I would make the same critique of Xavier. I guess they gave the Musketeers a lot of leeway for the Fremantle injury. UNC has no such excuse. It's always hard to determine those last four spots. Usually, it's six of one, half dozen of another. Here, though, I think this is clearly the less defensible options, and it's needlessly complicated by the committee chair being the UNC AD. WVU and Indiana have serious gripes.

 

 

There's many precedents to the committee considering injuries. One year Cincinnati was looked at as a clear #1, lost Kenyon Martin to an injury & IIRC was bumped down to a 3. It's why Otzelberger timed his announcement of Keshon Gilbert being done AFTER the pairings came out. I don't blame him; it's just part of the dance you have to perform.

I get a kick out of the people that try to blow off UNCs' AD being the committee chair by saying "well, he can't be in the room when they discuss UNC". These guys develop relationships & at some point, the door swings open & he comes back in. I doubt anyone relished giving him bad news.

I just didn't 'feel' Indiana all season. But I agree about WVU having reason to boil. And I kinda feel for Boise State.

[LouisEly]

Tonje named 2nd team AP All-American.

Chucky Hepburn honorable mention.

[Jim French Stepstool]

Not holding my breath or anything, but now that DeVries has been hired at Indiana it might be worthwhile to keep an eye on a couple of their incoming recruits. Both Trent Sisley & Harun Zrno were being pursued pretty heavily by Wisconsin. FWIW Sisleys' initial comments sound positive toward the hiring & suggest he's still committed, while Zrno appears to want to meet with DeVries & then decide.

Also, Owen Freeman of Iowa is entering the portal. All these rumors should be taken with a rather large saltlick of course, but one or two of the many sources indicate UW is a very serious player for his services. He'd be a great get.

[RedStickBrew]

19 hours ago, Jim French Stepstool said:

Not holding my breath or anything, but now that DeVries has been hired at Indiana it might be worthwhile to keep an eye on a couple of their incoming recruits. Both Trent Sisley & Harun Zrno were being pursued pretty heavily by Wisconsin. FWIW Sisleys' initial comments sound positive toward the hiring & suggest he's still committed, while Zrno appears to want to meet with DeVries & then decide.

Also, Owen Freeman of Iowa is entering the portal. All these rumors should be taken with a rather large saltlick of course, but one or two of the many sources indicate UW is a very serious player for his services. He'd be a great get.

Zrno did indeed decommit . I’m not sure what the Badgers interest might be in him. My understanding was he was offered but the coaches wanted to meet him in person before it was committable. Word was he left town without a for sure offer. 
Freeman will be expensive. If we can keep both Blackwell and Winter, I’m not sure he fits the budget. We lose several rotation players and will need at least 2-3 contributors from the portal next year IMO

[Playing Catch]

17 minutes ago, RedStickBrew said:

Zrno did indeed hit the portal. I’m not sure what the Badgers interest might be in him. My understanding was he was offered but the coaches wanted to meet him in person before it was committable. Word was he left town without a for sure offer. 
Freeman will be expensive. If we can keep both Blackwell and Winter, I’m not sure he fits the budget. We lose several rotation players and will need at least 2-3 contributors from the portal next year IMO

😯

[Oxy]

3 hours ago, RedStickBrew said:

Zrno did indeed decommit . I’m not sure what the Badgers interest might be in him. My understanding was he was offered but the coaches wanted to meet him in person before it was committable. Word was he left town without a for sure offer. 
Freeman will be expensive. If we can keep both Blackwell and Winter, I’m not sure he fits the budget. We lose several rotation players and will need at least 2-3 contributors from the portal next year IMO

"Offered" doesn't mean what it used to.  The Blue Jays "offered" Vladimir Guerrero more than a half a billion dollars this past offseason and VGu said "no thanks."  I think something similar may have happened with Zrno albeit with fewer zeroes.

[Jim French Stepstool]

3 hours ago, RedStickBrew said:

Freeman will be expensive. If we can keep both Blackwell and Winter, I’m not sure he fits the budget. We lose several rotation players and will need at least 2-3 contributors from the portal next year IMO

I don't know if UW was Freemans' 2nd choice out of HS or exactly where we fell on his list, but there was some mutual interest & that's where the possibility lies. If it's simply a case of him looking for the largest check then yes, it would be a challenge. The rumors are there; it just comes down to where everything lands on the BS meter.

An issue w/Zrno is that with the Indiana coaching change, a few more schools have come sniffing around. It's not just a case of him looking at the remaining schools on his original list.

[Samurai Bucky]

Janicki is struggling...

[RedStickBrew]

2 minutes ago, Samurai Bucky said:

Janicki is struggling...

Started after the chipped tooth. He’s been pretty rough since 

[Cool Hand Lucroy]

This is where the plus/minus of our bracketing slot comes in.

I thought we looked a little bit sluggish, just getting our feet under us most of the half. Against a better 14, we might be down or tied. But Montana is too little. We can get whatever we want inside, and get open looks on kick outs. If we lose, it'll be because we fall asleep on defense and fail to hit shots (or Montana gets absurdly hot). Just don't think they can hang for another 20 minutes.

[LouisEly]

4 hours ago, Oxy said:

"Offered" doesn't mean what it used to.  The Blue Jays "offered" Vladimir Guerrero more than a half a billion dollars this past offseason and VGu said "no thanks."  I think something similar may have happened with Zrno albeit with fewer zeroes.

Zrno is from Bosnia and would need to come here on a student visa, so he cannot collect NIL.  People with student visas cannot come to the US to "work"/make money.