Trade Market Slow To Develop & Likely An Extreme Seller's Market

[Brock Beauchamp]

Most years, not a lot happens in June trade-wise but this June has been particularly slow, with almost no note-worthy trades happening between teams.

That's primarily due to two reasons:

1. The new postseason format, as many predicted, is keeping more teams in the postseason race than ever before.
2. The ridiculous amount of parity in the leagues, particularly the National League.

As of this writing, only three American League teams and just two National League teams are clear sellers: Oakland, the White Sox, and the Angels in the AL, while Colorado and Miami are the only clear sellers in the NL.

In the American League, 12 of the 15 teams are in a postseason position or within 7.5 games of the third Wild Card spot. In the National League, 13 of the 15 teams are in a postseason position or within just 3.0 games of the third Wild Card spot.

As we head into July, it's likely we will see more stratification amongst the contenders and some teams will drop out of the race and eventually trade expiring contracts but it's hard to imagine many high-profile names moving in the first half of July. We could also see savvy teams like the Rays, currently 4.0 games out of the third Wild Card, take advantage of the seller's market and intentionally bow out of the race. On the other hand, some GMs/PoBOs should be concerned about their jobs, such as Jed Hoyer and the Cubs, and they may try to avoid making the obvious long-term decision of selling assets to improve in later seasons.

Time will tell how this all plays out but don't expect much to happen in the coming days or even weeks.

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[rickh150]

I cannot see this as a seller’s market with so many teams below .500 ……but slow definitely. Half of those slightly below .500 teams will be added to the seller list in 3 weeks.  There also are few close division races now. Even the top Wild Card teams have relatively large leads. Urgency to do deals is not there with them as much as other years with tighter leads.
 

 

 

[igor67]

Odds are good the seller list will grow slightly, but if the NL stays as flat as it is right now I'm inclined to agree that not that many teams will be strong buyers either. If your a GM on the hot seat sure, or a few other cases but trading a bunch to try and grab that coveted 3rd wildcard? I don't think so and there doesn't look like a lot of other drama at the moment for the division races. Someone mentioned it in passing, but I wouldn't mind the Brewers being a little aggressive to try and snag the #2 seed and skip the wildcard round. 

[jay87shot]

Give it a couple weeks and the teams that are 5-7 below .500 will be 7-9 and become sellers quick. On top of that 5 or 6 teams that are within a couple games of .500 either way probably won't be buyers.

[umphrey]

It's better to look at playoff odds I think. For example the nationals are 38-43 but 1% playoff odds and clear cut sellers. There are some other fringe teams in the 20% to 50% that could go either way like the giants. Just depends on organizational plans, the owner, etc.