Midseason Prospect Rankings

[biedergb]

ESPN historically has been awful for ranking anything in baseball - it’s LA, Boston, NY and Chicago with the hype those media outlets provide - ESPN then uses that to factor into who is good or not. And they clearly overlook smaller markets we don’t have as much media hype

[wiguy94]

7 minutes ago, biedergb said:

ESPN historically has been awful for ranking anything in baseball - it’s LA, Boston, NY and Chicago with the hype those media outlets provide - ESPN then uses that to factor into who is good or not. And they clearly overlook smaller markets we don’t have as much media hype

I think these complaints about ESPN are very misplaced. Kiley worked with Longenhagen at Fangraphs before he took over for ESPN. He's not some no nothing hack.

[biedergb]

21 minutes ago, wiguy94 said:

I think these complaints about ESPN are very misplaced. Kiley worked with Longenhagen at Fangraphs before he took over for ESPN. He's not some no nothing hack.

I agree - I think Kiley does a good job. But they often and still do appear to hear the chatter from bigger media outlets. He is good but if you hear 10x as much about a Yankee prospect it will still affect your view compared to prospect who gets little hype. 
That’s changing with BP, JustBaseball, and guys like our own Spencer etc. getting info on other markets. 
The other is we overvalue our prospects for similar reasons - we discuss it here frequently. And we also see the development and see the fit with the club.
 

So I agree. I’m not ragging ESPN but they do get more info from national sources. And bigger name players or IFA signings get more hype.
 And also BA seems to have fallen out of favor for us as well so it’s not just an ESPN thing. 

21 minutes ago, wiguy94 said:

I think these complaints about ESPN are very misplaced. Kiley worked with Longenhagen at Fangraphs before he took over for ESPN. He's not some no nothing hack

[wiguy94]

1 minute ago, biedergb said:

I agree - I think Kiley does a good job. But they often and still do appear to hear the chatter from bigger media outlets. He is good but if you hear 10x as much about a Yankee prospect it will still affect your view compared to prospect who gets little hype. 
That’s changing with BP, JustBaseball, and guys like our own Spencer etc. getting info on other markets. 
The other is we overvalue our prospects for similar reasons - we discuss it here frequently. And we also see the development and see the fit with the club.
 

So I agree. I’m not ragging ESPN but they do get more info from national sources. And bigger name players or IFA signings get more hype.
 And also BA seems to have fallen out of favor for us as well so it’s not just an ESPN thing. 

3 reputable places have shared midseason farm rankings. BA had us at 15, ESPN at 17, and Fangraphs at 19. Spencer has said he thinks the farm system is currently in the 10-15 range. BP didn't have any Brewers in their midseason Top 50 update, so I imagine they would have our farm system similarly ranked to BA, ESPN, and Fangraphs.

The farm system is young and has good depth, but depth isn't how you're going to get a high ranked farm system. Top 100 prospects are how you get there which we lack at the moment. We have a lot of players with Top 100 upside in the low minors and complex league. Pratt is a semi-universal Top 100 prospect at this point. Yophery, Bitonti, Made, Pena all have Top 100 potential. Pitchers like Meccage, Knoth, Letson have Top 100 potential although I'd say less so than the 4 position players.

[Playing Catch]

The reason ESPN plays the big-market game in baseball is because baseball fans only pay attention to their favorite team, unlike the NFL, or NBA, where fans from New York will often tune into Bucks or Packers games.

There's zero financial gain to be had from highlighting the exploits of the smaller markets in baseball.

[CheeseheadInQC]

I don’t know that large market bias is what is going on (personally I think that tends to come out more when the non-prospect focused guys start talking about prospects). The Brewers top guys have either graduated or been injured, erratic or defensively challenged. The Brewers have a ton of depth, but much of it comes from places that seem not to have as much effect on these lists (short-season teenagers and pop-up pitching prospects). I like how the Brewers have countered the high-variance nature of their system by sheer numbers and am optimistic on a large number of the players, but this system isn’t necessarily for everyone.

[Matt]

6 hours ago, MilwaukeeBeers said:

I don't know how anyone can look at these lower levels and rank the Brewers lower than the middle of the pack as a farm system. Especially with the depth and impact guys already at a high level. What a joke. ESPN keeps the large market bias alive and well each and every day. 

I'm extremely excited about the system overall, but I get it. The most exciting prospects are either at the lower levels (Made, Bitonti, Pratt, Adams, Rodriguez), are injured (Quero), or have legit question marks (Misi, Black, Wilken). 

I'm optimistic, though. I think a year from now the system is going to appear stacked.

[wiguy94]

19 minutes ago, CheeseheadInQC said:

I don’t know that large market bias is what is going on (personally I think that tends to come out more when the non-prospect focused guys start talking about prospects). The Brewers top guys have either graduated or been injured, erratic or defensively challenged. The Brewers have a ton of depth, but much of it comes from places that seem not to have as much effect on these lists (short-season teenagers and pop-up pitching prospects). I like how the Brewers have countered the high-variance nature of their system by sheer numbers and am optimistic on a large number of the players, but this system isn’t necessarily for everyone.

Honestly the more I look at the pitching prospects popping up onto these Top 100 lists, the more unlikely I think it is for a Brewers pitching prospects to make the Top 100. Maybe a young guy can get a big velo bump along the way, but I really think a lot of our pitching prospects are more guys who will fit that 45/45+ type grades from Fangraphs or 50 grades from pipeline. Good prospects and maybe fringe Top 100 prospects but I'm struggling to see pitchers that jump out as future Top 100 prospects. This is definitely what makes me a bit bummed to miss out on Levonas as I think he had a crazy high ceiling.

Like just for example the Nationals have two pop up pitching prospects this year in Susana and Sykora and they are both 6'6 and throw upper 90s. Seems like the Brewers like more of the analytical darlings even if they don't have the typical frame that the scouting services love. I know for a fact Baseball Prospectus guys are pretty high on Henderson but I think they lean a bit more into the pitch analytics side than BA, Fangraphs, ESPN, etc.

[Playing Catch]

35 minutes ago, CheeseheadInQC said:

I don’t know that large market bias is what is going on (personally I think that tends to come out more when the non-prospect focused guys start talking about prospects). The Brewers top guys have either graduated or been injured, erratic or defensively challenged. The Brewers have a ton of depth, but much of it comes from places that seem not to have as much effect on these lists (short-season teenagers and pop-up pitching prospects). I like how the Brewers have countered the high-variance nature of their system by sheer numbers and am optimistic on a large number of the players, but this system isn’t necessarily for everyone.

I don't disagree. I think their rankings are mostly pretty genuine, and I don't really care very much about prospect rankings. The Brewers have a great system, and deciding to rank prospects, rather than tier them, makes the "rankers" prejudiced. They are always going to rank a few guys from each system in the Top 100, unless they're trying to make a point about how bad the system is.

I was commenting on their overall strategy of covering teams, not specifically prospects.

[wiguy94]

41 minutes ago, wiguy94 said:

Honestly the more I look at the pitching prospects popping up onto these Top 100 lists, the more unlikely I think it is for a Brewers pitching prospects to make the Top 100. Maybe a young guy can get a big velo bump along the way, but I really think a lot of our pitching prospects are more guys who will fit that 45/45+ type grades from Fangraphs or 50 grades from pipeline. Good prospects and maybe fringe Top 100 prospects but I'm struggling to see pitchers that jump out as future Top 100 prospects. This is definitely what makes me a bit bummed to miss out on Levonas as I think he had a crazy high ceiling.

Like just for example the Nationals have two pop up pitching prospects this year in Susana and Sykora and they are both 6'6 and throw upper 90s. Seems like the Brewers like more of the analytical darlings even if they don't have the typical frame that the scouting services love. I know for a fact Baseball Prospectus guys are pretty high on Henderson but I think they lean a bit more into the pitch analytics side than BA, Fangraphs, ESPN, etc.

Speaking of the devil. Sykora is pitching against Carolina again tonight and is shutting down an offense that has been on fire in the series.

[MilwaukeeBeers]

6 hours ago, wiguy94 said:

3 reputable places have shared midseason farm rankings. BA had us at 15, ESPN at 17, and Fangraphs at 19. Spencer has said he thinks the farm system is currently in the 10-15 range. BP didn't have any Brewers in their midseason Top 50 update, so I imagine they would have our farm system similarly ranked to BA, ESPN, and Fangraphs.

The farm system is young and has good depth, but depth isn't how you're going to get a high ranked farm system. Top 100 prospects are how you get there which we lack at the moment. We have a lot of players with Top 100 upside in the low minors and complex league. Pratt is a semi-universal Top 100 prospect at this point. Yophery, Bitonti, Made, Pena all have Top 100 potential. Pitchers like Meccage, Knoth, Letson have Top 100 potential although I'd say less so than the 4 position players.

Lack top 100? Id say the Brewers have 4 for sure in Quero, Black, Misiorowski, and Pratt. They also have quite a few fringe 100 guys in Yophery and Gasser. 

[wiguy94]

5 minutes ago, MilwaukeeBeers said:

Lack top 100? Id say the Brewers have 4 for sure in Quero, Black, Misiorowski, and Pratt. They also have quite a few fringe 100 guys in Yophery and Gasser. 

4 bottom half Top 100 prospects isn't much in terms of farm system rankings. Top 25 prospects is where you start seeing movement in farm system rankings, so yeah I stand by saying in terms of Top 100 our system is pretty thin. I also disagree that Yophery and Gasser are fringe Top 100 prospects.

[Matt]

I think the only for sure top 100 guy is Quero. Black doesn't have a position, Misiorowski isn't doing much to dispel relief inevitability, and Pratt has had a good but not eye-popping debut. 

[MilwaukeeBeers]

2 hours ago, CheeseheadInQC said:

I don’t know that large market bias is what is going on (personally I think that tends to come out more when the non-prospect focused guys start talking about prospects). The Brewers top guys have either graduated or been injured, erratic or defensively challenged. The Brewers have a ton of depth, but much of it comes from places that seem not to have as much effect on these lists (short-season teenagers and pop-up pitching prospects). I like how the Brewers have countered the high-variance nature of their system by sheer numbers and am optimistic on a large number of the players, but this system isn’t necessarily for everyone.

ESPN has a vendetta against small markets. I get it though, that's not their prime viewership. It is also why I dont watch that channel anymore. I can show a few examples of this. Most recently anytime Giannis says anything to the media lol. So yeah maybe I am reaching when I say they do the same thing with the Brewers, but I feel they get a lot more excited about prospects from say the Yankees than similar guys from the brewers. They get that top 100 boost the brewers dont. I also get rankings really don't matter either. It is all arbitrary and after the first 20 guys most have similar OFV. Just an observation. Our system is very high variance but man I think it is gonna melt faces with a few of these guys in the near future. Typically I am more of a pessimist about prospects too. 

[MilwaukeeBeers]

4 minutes ago, wiguy94 said:

4 bottom half Top 100 prospects isn't much in terms of farm system rankings. Top 25 prospects is where you start seeing movement in farm system rankings, so yeah I stand by saying in terms of Top 100 our system is pretty thin. I also disagree that Yophery and Gasser are fringe Top 100 prospects.

An 18 year old holding his own in A- with pretty decent power stats isn't fringe 100 you think? Sure he needs to work on making better swing decisions but I have been thoroughly impressed by him and his maturity this year. But I also don't just scout the statline I really like his swing and see a lot of power potential in it.

If Gasser stayed healthy he'd easily be top 100. He was mowing down big leaguers before the elbow. And with TJ nowadays I dont think there's all that much risk ranking him there again. If it was a shoulder that would be a different story.  

[Matt]

If Gasser were healthy he wouldn't be eligible for a list (but I think as it stands he's their best pitching prospect). 

[wiguy94]

6 minutes ago, MilwaukeeBeers said:

An 18 year old holding his own in A- with pretty decent power stats isn't fringe 100 you think? Sure he needs to work on making better swing decisions but I have been thoroughly impressed by him and his maturity this year. But I also don't just scout the statline I really like his swing and see a lot of power potential in it.

If Gasser stayed healthy he'd easily be top 100. He was mowing down big leaguers before the elbow. And with TJ nowadays I dont think there's all that much risk ranking him there again. If it was a shoulder that would be a different story.  

I don't just scout the statline either. I'd venture outside of Joseph there are very few people that watch more Brewers minor league baseball than me. 

I think Yophery is limited in the tools department relative to other Top 100 guys. Seems like a guy with a bunch of 50 grade tools with defense probably being the one that is a 55-60 grade tool. I just don't think jack of all trades guys in the low minors are Top 100 candidates. 

If Gasser stayed healthy he wouldn't be prospect eligible anymore, so I don't think he deserves to be a Top 100 prospect because he had TJ.

[SF70]

A little patience with the teams farm and sometime post ‘25 draft this team’s farm system strength won’t be able to be denied by anyone.

The impactful teenage positional prospect depth that’s second to none around the game will mature and reach the upper minors and coupled with this team’s PDS having an opportunity to develop the 24 pitcher’s drafted in ‘23-‘24, along with another likely monster ‘25 draft and trade-return from a possible offseason Williams trade, IMO, will give the team the deepest and strongest farm system in team history and a farm bursting with so much prospect talent the FO will finally have the ammo to trade prospect depth for controllable veteran talent for the big-club if so desired.

With our incredible Dominican Academy likely the talk by many in Latin America giving our proven international scouting system a leg-up on most of our competition, I believe we can continue to get most of our impactful positionals from that realm moving-forward. This will be our advantage at least in the short-term.

Next year’s draft could be the real franchise-altering class that propels this team to the top. They have as balanced a system as I can remember and should have an opportunity to add impact talent vs volume talent.

[SF70]

13 hours ago, wiguy94 said:

Honestly the more I look at the pitching prospects popping up onto these Top 100 lists, the more unlikely I think it is for a Brewers pitching prospects to make the Top 100. Maybe a young guy can get a big velo bump along the way, but I really think a lot of our pitching prospects are more guys who will fit that 45/45+ type grades from Fangraphs or 50 grades from pipeline. Good prospects and maybe fringe Top 100 prospects but I'm struggling to see pitchers that jump out as future Top 100 prospects. This is definitely what makes me a bit bummed to miss out on Levonas as I think he had a crazy high ceiling.

Like just for example the Nationals have two pop up pitching prospects this year in Susana and Sykora and they are both 6'6 and throw upper 90s. Seems like the Brewers like more of the analytical darlings even if they don't have the typical frame that the scouting services love. I know for a fact Baseball Prospectus guys are pretty high on Henderson but I think they lean a bit more into the pitch analytics side than BA, Fangraphs, ESPN, etc.

I believe next season will be the year the pitching takes a huge step forward in this system.

Woodward will be another offseason  past his TJ, and with reports of him touching 97, he is one of many pitching prospects to keep an eye on. Same with Birchard, who’s season was cut short due to a horrible oblique injury.

This latest draft-class has added size and or projectabilty to the stable of starter arms that will be developed by a PDS that helped turn raw talent into TOR talent before (Woodruff-Burnes-Peralta). 

So while we might not have the 6’ 6” 230-240lb upper 90’s Sokora-Susanna tandem, I believe we have the projectables in-house that can get developed into future TOR starters thanks to this team’s elite PDS.

[wiguy94]

31 minutes ago, SF70 said:

I believe next season will be the year the pitching takes a huge step forward in this system.

Woodward will be another offseason  past his TJ, and with reports of him touching 97, he is one of many pitching prospects to keep an eye on. Same with Birchard, who’s season was cut short due to a horrible oblique injury.

This latest draft-class has added size and or projectabilty to the stable of starter arms that will be developed by a PDS that helped turn raw talent into TOR talent before (Woodruff-Burnes-Peralta). 

So while we might not have the 6’ 6” 230-240lb upper 90’s Sokora-Susanna tandem, I believe we have the projectables in-house that can get developed into future TOR starters thanks to this team’s elite PDS.

I just don’t know if the elite pitching development is a thing anymore. I look at our farm system and I feel like the hitting development is what stands out lately. 

[SF70]

Just now, wiguy94 said:

I just don’t know if the elite pitching development is a thing anymore. I look at our farm system and I feel like the hitting development is what stands out lately. 

I think it’s mostly what the 2 groups have had an opportunity to work with recently. 

Prospect -procurement has focused on adding position talent to the system of which the hitting system has had an opportunity to develop, but the dearth of pitching talent during that same time made the PDS not look as good as it was earlier. 

But now they have lots of arms to develop so I think we’ll see the PDS show it’s skill again.

[snoogans8056]

3 hours ago, wiguy94 said:

I just don’t know if the elite pitching development is a thing anymore. I look at our farm system and I feel like the hitting development is what stands out lately. 

It's there, but it's being seen right now in the college picks. We have quite a few guys moving quickly through the system right now that are in that bunch of later round picks.

We've signed 11 high school pitchers in the last two drafts. I think you'd be hard pressed to find another team with 4 or 5 in that time (I believe only Knoth and Letson have made it past rookie ball so far).

I think the shift to high school arms is creating a little bit of a lag in the pitching lab results. This is made even more pronounced with Birchard and Woodward being injured as some of our higher drafted college guys in that same time frame. 

 

[Matt]

Pratt's new at #62. Behind Quero but ahead of Misiorowski and Black. 

[wiguy94]

10 minutes ago, Matt said:

Pratt's new at #62. Behind Quero but ahead of Misiorowski and Black. 

Really think pipeline does a good job with the midseason individual top 30 rankings. Feel like both this year and last year it did for the most part a really good job of ranking the system

[Playing Catch]

12 hours ago, wiguy94 said:

Really think pipeline does a good job with the midseason individual top 30 rankings. Feel like both this year and last year it did for the most part a really good job of ranking the system

I agree that MLB Pipeline does a nice job with the whole exercise (even though I maintain their grades are often about a click and a half optimistic), and it's really easy to access for quick info on guys.

With that said, if there were a redraft today. There is no way Braylon Payne would get drafted ahead of the younger Made. Based on the information available, with the DSL season, Made would have been given a larger bonus than Payne. I like where they put Made, at #17, since stateside, or even perhaps, Carolina, is where prospects can really begin to standout. But doesn't Payne HAVE to be ranked below Made?