August Record Prediction

[LouisEly]

On 8/5/2024 at 1:01 PM, Underachiever said:

I looked it up. After you predicted a 12-16 April and a 12-18 May, the team did the exact opposite at 34-24. So you sat out June and July until they started July with a 5-8 record, then chimed in. Now you are back with an 11-17 prediction after dropping some snark in the optimism thread. I get to add you to my ignore list, I guess.

Every party needs a pooper

[RobDeer 45]

I'll go 13 and 15.  I hope they can get it rolling though!

[Brewin]

Bump

14-8 with six games left in the month. Looks like they will perform better than almost all of the predictions in the thread...

 

[sveumrules]

8 minutes ago, Brewin said:

Bump

14-8 with six games left in the month. Looks like they will perform better than almost all of the predictions in the thread...

 

Pretty crazy how this team keeps on just not regressing to the mean for any meaningful amount of time.

Started 10 W - 3 L. Obviously nobody thought they'd win 125 games this year.

Yelich got hurt and they went 11 W - 12 L from April 14th until May 8th. That's more like it.

At that point they were 21 W - 15 L, still a 95 win pace. Nobody thought they'd win 95 coming into the year, so more regression had to be right around the corner, right?

Nope, Brewers proceeded to go 31 W- 20 L over the next almost two months through July 3rd, which bumped them up to a 97 win pace at 52 W - 35 L.

Then the annual pre-ASB swoon happened, 3 W - 7 L, dropping them to a 92 win pace at the break, still quite a bit ahead of pre-season expectations. No way they could possibly flip the script & keep up their first half pace after limping into the break and towards a deadline where all they did was add Nick Mears and Frankie Montas, right?

Since the break they've gone 20 W - 13 L to where they stand today at 75 W - 55 L, nudging things up to about a 93 win pace.

[nate82]

35 minutes ago, Brewin said:

Bump

14-8 with six games left in the month. Looks like they will perform better than almost all of the predictions in the thread...

 

If they go 4-2 my prediction will be somewhat correct just didn't sweep the Cardinals..........

[nate82]

15 minutes ago, sveumrules said:

Pretty crazy how this team keeps on just not regressing to the mean for any meaningful amount of time.

Started 10 W - 3 L. Obviously nobody thought they'd win 125 games this year.

Yelich got hurt and they went 11 W - 12 L from April 14th until May 8th. That's more like it.

At that point they were 21 W - 15 L, still a 95 win pace. Nobody thought they'd win 95 coming into the year, so more regression had to be right around the corner, right?

Nope, Brewers proceeded to go 31 W- 20 L over the next almost two months through July 3rd, which bumped them up to a 97 win pace at 52 W - 35 L.

Then the annual pre-ASB swoon happened, 3 W - 7 L, dropping them to a 92 win pace at the break, still quite a bit ahead of pre-season expectations. No way they could possibly flip the script & keep up their first half pace after limping into the break and towards a deadline where all they did was add Nick Mears and Frankie Montas, right?

Since the break they've gone 20 W - 13 L to where they stand today at 75 W - 55 L, nudging things up to about a 93 win pace.

The Brewers are still behind their expected win loss record by one game.  Which for the Brewers is extremely weird.  Normally the Brewers for about the last ten years now have been outperforming their expected win loss record. You have to go back to 2016 when the Brewers were below their expected win loss record.  Going back to 2012 as I am not including the COVID year and not including the current season gives us ten years worth of seasons.  Of those ten seasons the Brewers have only finished below their expected win loss in 2012, 2013, 2015 and 2016.  This looks to be another year that will be below their expected win loss record. 

The expected win loss record really doesn't show anything but the Brewers have been consistently beating it for awhile now and this will be the first playoff run where the Brewers are not beating their expected win loss record.  Take that for whatever it is supposed to mean and it is probably nothing.

If you want to see something funny look at the 2018 season standings over at MLB.

[Underachiever]

@nate82 I don't understand your previous post. What expected win-loss record are they behind? Didn't most projections have them significantly below where they are? Or are you referring to something else? Thanks.

[sveumrules]

6 minutes ago, Underachiever said:

@nate82 I don't understand your previous post. What expected win-loss record are they behind? Didn't most projections have them significantly below where they are? Or are you referring to something else? Thanks.

Think he’s referring to their Pythagorean record derived from run differential.

So far this year they are -1 win versus +2 wins last year, +1 win in 2022, +2 wins in 2021.

They haven’t really deviated big time from their pythag since 2019 at +8 wins.

[Underachiever]

20 minutes ago, sveumrules said:

Think he’s referring to their Pythagorean record derived from run differential.

So far this year they are -1 win versus +2 wins last year, +1 win in 2022, +2 wins in 2021.

They haven’t really deviated big time from their pythag since 2019 at +8 wins.

So you're saying they suck. Great.

Thanks for the answer.

[nate82]

On 8/5/2024 at 2:44 PM, Sixtolezcano said:

Thank you. I’m sorry I have a different opinion than you do. I’ll change it to 19-9 so I can have a similar opinion as yours. You’ve successfully have shamed me. Please forgive me, I’ll try to be better for you.

Only 1 win away from your not serious prediction. LOL.

[Underachiever]

Murphaugust has been great! Can’t wait for Patember!

[Underachiever]

19-9. What an awesome month. Only one person bold enough to predict it.