Brewers (Myers) vs Reds (TBD): 9/1/24, 11:10am

[adambr2]

Great work, Braves. Thanks for absolutely nothing. 

Cubs now within just 3 of the Braves. More importantly the Braves did nothing to slow down Philly. 

[willie key]

9 minutes ago, adambr2 said:

I don't know that I necessarily buy the percentages much, as I don't know if they account for momentum.

Going to get tight in the WC race quickly if the Braves continue to poo the bed in every opportunity they get to help us and themselves. 

To not acknowledge that the cubs are playing different than they were earlier this year is burying your head in the sand.    We will see in these next nine games what kind of contender they are

 

Plus those percentages are somewhat meaningless.

[Brian]

15 minutes ago, adambr2 said:

I don't know that I necessarily buy the percentages much, as I don't know if they account for momentum.

Going to get tight in the WC race quickly if the Braves continue to poo the bed in every opportunity they get to help us and themselves. 

Yes the Braves sure choaked tonight. 

[brewfanmn]

33 minutes ago, adambr2 said:

I don't know that I necessarily buy the percentages much, as I don't know if they account for momentum.

Going to get tight in the WC race quickly if the Braves continue to poo the bed in every opportunity they get to help us and themselves. 

The projections know about the recent performance and bake that in appropriately. I've never seen any study that indicates "momentum" is a real thing (and in fact have only seen studies that indicate the opposite if anything), but I have seen plenty that show the best forecast of future performance is projection systems like ZiPS and Steamer (which is what drives the playoff odds) that update daily to include recent performance. My guess is the concept of momentum tends to be drastically overstated.

6% (probably more like 8% after tonight) feels about right to me for a team that has needed a scored-earth run to get their run differential into the positive, that's 3 GB in the Wild Card of a Braves club with a much better roster, and has another team in the Mets in-between them.

[adambr2]

19 minutes ago, willie key said:

To not acknowledge that the cubs are playing different than they were earlier this year is burying your head in the sand.    We will see in these next nine games what kind of contender they are

 

Plus those percentages are somewhat meaningless.

Again, nobody is denying that the Cubs are playing good baseball right now. Nobody said otherwise. 

It's also like a 2 week stretch of good baseball, of which every time in MLB has good (and bad) 2 week stretches. 

[brewfanmn]

17 minutes ago, brewfanmn said:

The projections know about the recent performance and bake that in appropriately. I've never seen any study that indicates "momentum" is a real thing (and in fact have only seen studies that indicate the opposite if anything), but I have seen plenty that show the best forecast of future performance is projection systems like ZiPS and Steamer (which is what drives the playoff odds) that update daily to include recent performance. My guess is the concept of momentum tends to be drastically overstated.

6% (probably more like 8% after tonight) feels about right to me for a team that has needed a scored-earth run to get their run differential into the positive, that's 3 GB in the Wild Card of a Braves club with a much better roster, and has another team in the Mets in-between them.

Before anyone asks, these are from 10 years ago and projection systems have only gotten better since then

https://mglbaseball.wordpress.com/2014/06/12/what-can-a-players-season-to-date-performance-tell-us-beyond-his-up-to-date-projection/

https://mglbaseball.wordpress.com/2014/06/13/mid-season-projections-part-ii-pitchers/

[sveumrules]

9 hours ago, adambr2 said:

Again, nobody is denying that the Cubs are playing good baseball right now. Nobody said otherwise. 

It's also like a 2 week stretch of good baseball, of which every time in MLB has good (and bad) 2 week stretches. 

The Cubs are 32 W - 18 L since July 4th.

That’s the 2nd best record in MLB over an almost two month stretch.

[sveumrules]

11 hours ago, Recovering Chicagoan said:

Greetings! I've been reading this forum for quite some time, but this is my first post.

Regarding the Cubs, even if we beat them in the playoffs -- hopefully we will if we have to play them -- and then lose to, say, the Dodgers, Cubs fans would probably say (in snarky fashion): "Hey, 2016! When was the last time the Brewers won the World Series?"

Still, if we're going to lose in the playoffs, yes, I'd rather it be to a team other than the Cubs.

 

Welcome to the forum & good luck on your recovery.

[BruisedCrew]

One of the several reasons I wouldn’t want to see the Brewers play the Cubs in the first round is that it would largely negate the home crowd advantage the Brewers would have against anyone else. 

[BruisedCrew]

14 hours ago, brewfanmn said:

Before anyone asks, these are from 10 years ago and projection systems have only gotten better since then

https://mglbaseball.wordpress.com/2014/06/12/what-can-a-players-season-to-date-performance-tell-us-beyond-his-up-to-date-projection/

https://mglbaseball.wordpress.com/2014/06/13/mid-season-projections-part-ii-pitchers/

These address projections for individual player performance, but I’ve always wondered how well projections for a team’s future performance account for things like injuries and other personnel changes that might make a team significantly better or worse than their past performance might suggest.

 

[brewfanmn]

11 minutes ago, BruisedCrew said:

These address projections for individual player performance, but I’ve always wondered how well projections for a team’s future performance account for things like injuries and other personnel changes that might make a team significantly better or worse than their past performance might suggest.

 

The team projections on Fangraphs and Baseballprospectus are based off depth charts (that I assume are maintained manually? Maybe crowdsourced?) to turn the individual projections into a team projection. So if a guy gets hurt or there is a roster move that will change future playing time estimates, that will be reflected in the team projection

The Brewers one looks pretty accurate

https://www.fangraphs.com/depthcharts.aspx?position=ALL&teamid=23

[BruisedCrew]

1 hour ago, brewfanmn said:

The team projections on Fangraphs and Baseballprospectus are based off depth charts (that I assume are maintained manually? Maybe crowdsourced?) to turn the individual projections into a team projection. So if a guy gets hurt or there is a roster move that will change future playing time estimates, that will be reflected in the team projection

The Brewers one looks pretty accurate

https://www.fangraphs.com/depthcharts.aspx?position=ALL&teamid=23

I’m talking about how they would come up with win-loss projections for teams.