Sunday Pushed the Roster Doomsday Clock Forward for One Erstwhile Brewers Hurler

[Jake McKibbin]

With the likely return of several players in September, in tandem with his position on the depth chart, should Bryse Wilson be concerned about his place on the roster?

Image courtesy of © Robert Edwards-USA TODAY Sports

Before delving into the topic, it should be noted just how valuable Bryse Wilson was on Sunday in saving the rest of the bullpen, whose usage had been quite heavy in the wake of a doubleheader on Friday. The reinforcement of September roster expansion wasn’t of much use to the Brewers, who elected to reinstate DL Hall after his seven-inning epic on Friday instead of an available relief arm. As such, the Crew were left with only Jared Koenig and Wilson to support Tobias Myers and keep their pen fresh for the remainder of September. 

Avoiding overuse will be of primary importance to the Brewers down the stretch, with a comfortable nine-game divisional lead over the Chicago Cubs (functionally, 10, because of the tiebreaker), but quality is still paramount while chasing a top-two seed and the playoff bye. It’s a delicate balance, but with the sheer volume of arms the Brewers have at their disposal, it may be that Wilson gets squeezed off the roster before the playoffs come.

It's therefore also notable that, with the intention of saving arms, Wilson was left out on the mound until the game finished. He has pitched into a fourth inning just once (in the middle of July) since leaving the starting rotation, and it appeared as though Pat Murphy had no plans to use any other bullpen arms in that contest. The lack of care toward the arm of Wilson, compared to other relievers, does give a hint as to how the Brewers see him on the depth chart at the moment.

The Brewers' current starting pitchers have struggled the third time through an order (see above), which prevents the club from getting the length out of their starters that you would need to make a six-man rotation viable--compared to an extra arm in the bullpen. Having the expanded roster may tweak this, but the likelihood is that DL Hall will get most of his innings in a long relief role (with the occasional start) in September.

Factoring that in, you have Joe Ross, Aaron Ashby and DL Hall all being used in multi-inning roles. All of them have shown more quality in performance out of the pen than Wilson. Since the start of July, Wilson has a 1.48 WHIP with an ERA of 5.00, all while seeing his workload gradually decrease. He threw 17 innings in July (and that includes an All-Star break), but just 10 innings in August--largely because of Joe Ross’s emergence.

Ross moved to a relief role on Aug. 6, but with five days less in the month, he pitched three innings more than Wilson, allowing just one earned run and a 0.85 WHIP. He’s looked extremely effective. Add in Ashby and Hall as converted starters who thus feel comfortable working multiple innings, and the squeeze on Wilson's role is obvious.

Nor is contract math on his side. Wilson is out of minor-league options and destined for a second trip through arbitration this winter. He figures to make upward of $3 million, if tendered a contract come November. The Brewers historically don’t give out large sums of money to relievers, especially not to those in lower-leverage spots. He’s a strong candidate to become a roster casualty this fall, if not sooner.

So, with four high-quality long relief options and little chance of a return engagement for the two parties in 2025, the pressure really ramps up on Wilson toward the middle of September. Nick Mears is expected to come back from elbow inflammation around then, and even if the recovery goes poorly, there’s still Elvis Peguero waiting in the wings. 

If the team does cut Wilson this month, it will be a painful, cruel baseball moment. Wilson might well land with another contender for the final week or three, but if he does change teams now, he won't be eligible to pitch in the playoffs. Alas, that's the nature of the game. Despite yeoman's work across nearly two full seasons during which the team sometimes needed him desperately, Wilson is now an extra piece Milwaukee might not be able to carry.

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[jay87shot]

I'd really hate cutting Wilson and getting nothing. I agree that he is probably the low man on the totem pole as far as someone taking his 27 man spot. It might be time for him to develop some inflammation. 

He is 26 with 2 cheap years of control and 2 solid years back to back. If we can keep him around there is a decent prospect to be had for him. My guess is a dozen teams or so would love to have the depth and versatility he brings.

[Brian]

I'm not following you at all with your chart that says Wilsons ERA is 16.62 ???

He pitched 104 innings with a 4.04 ERA. But he has been used in long relief as of late for about 3 innings.

[Jake McKibbin]

6 hours ago, Brian said:

I'm not following you at all with your chart that says Wilsons ERA is 16.62 ???

He pitched 104 innings with a 4.04 ERA. But he has been used in long relief as of late for about 3 innings.

The table was to do with the ERA's the third time through the order, it was meant to look more at the current starting rotations struggles going deep than to assess Wilson!

 

[Ro Mueller]

We’ve been pretty conservative activating rehabbing pitchers, which I think is partly to avoid having to DFA anyone.

But yeah, it gets interesting this time of year, with Nashville’s season ending September 22 and the playoffs commencing October 1.

Enoli Paredes probably needs to be activated by September 15. Then there’s Hoby Milner and Nick Mears, who we probably want back on the MLB roster by September 21 or so to give them a few MLB outings before the playoffs.

Don’t be surprised if we ultimately option Ashby and/or Milner if we decide they won’t likely be part of the initial playoff roster.

If it comes down to a cruel cut, it’s probably between Paredes and Wilson. The emergency rip cord may be to burn Hall’s final option year, but I’m sure Arnold wants to avoid that.

[rolafaive]

After the season ends there will be a lot of changes to the pen for 2025, you have 2 major league-ready arms ready to be plugged into the pen so losing 1-2 is not that big of a deal, just get thru the playoffs. I see another mysterious season-ending injury coming for a couple of players to round out the play off roster.

[Brian]

5 hours ago, Ro Mueller said:

We’ve been pretty conservative activating rehabbing pitchers, which I think is partly to avoid having to DFA anyone.

But yeah, it gets interesting this time of year, with Nashville’s season ending September 22 and the playoffs commencing October 1.

Enoli Paredes probably needs to be activated by September 15. Then there’s Hoby Milner and Nick Mears, who we probably want back on the MLB roster by September 21 or so to give them a few MLB outings before the playoffs.

Don’t be surprised if we ultimately option Ashby and/or Milner if we decide they won’t likely be part of the initial playoff roster.

If it comes down to a cruel cut, it’s probably between Paredes and Wilson. The emergency rip cord may be to burn Hall’s final option year, but I’m sure Arnold wants to avoid that.

I hope its Hoby Milner we option and not Aaron Ashby. 

Hoby's ERA is 6.75 over his last 30 appearances and 4.92 for the year. That is not a very reliable post season reliever. 

[Ro Mueller]

5 hours ago, Brian said:

I hope its Hoby Milner we option and not Aaron Ashby. 

Hoby's ERA is 6.75 over his last 30 appearances and 4.92 for the year. That is not a very reliable post season reliever. 

After late season injuries to Yelich, Woodruff and Devin in recent seasons, I’m just praying our guys stay healthy.

But yeah, I understand being concerned about whether Milner will be at his best.

It’s still amazing to consider Ashby’s sudden turnaround from a truly awful several months.

[Ro Mueller]

Or, hear me out: Wilson will get the mysterious injury designation (for the rest of 2024) and Hudson will get a 15-day option to AAA to make some temporary roster room: 

 

[jesusoftheapes]

21 hours ago, Brian said:

I'm not following you at all with your chart that says Wilsons ERA is 16.62 ???

He pitched 104 innings with a 4.04 ERA. But he has been used in long relief as of late for about 3 innings.

I believe he was speaking about the 3rd time through not him as a relief pitcher.  Since he is not a starter anymore his 3rd time around argument is lost on me and anyone else for that matter.     Wilson is not going anywhere.   No matter how much the Talking Heads like Ashby .  

[jesusoftheapes]

14 hours ago, Ro Mueller said:

We’ve been pretty conservative activating rehabbing pitchers, which I think is partly to avoid having to DFA anyone.

But yeah, it gets interesting this time of year, with Nashville’s season ending September 22 and the playoffs commencing October 1.

Enoli Paredes probably needs to be activated by September 15. Then there’s Hoby Milner and Nick Mears, who we probably want back on the MLB roster by September 21 or so to give them a few MLB outings before the playoffs.

Don’t be surprised if we ultimately option Ashby and/or Milner if we decide they won’t likely be part of the initial playoff roster.

If it comes down to a cruel cut, it’s probably between Paredes and Wilson. The emergency rip cord may be to burn Hall’s final option year, but I’m sure Arnold wants to avoid that.

Ashby will probably not go anywhere given his ability to dominate innings from the pen so far as well as the fact he is a different look than the rest of the Pen.   Parades and Ashby have a similar change of pace style that no one else has in the pen. So their value in playoff action could be greatly important in matchups of meaning.     I just do not know if Paredes did enough to get put onto a playoff roster despite him being fantastic in his action when up.      If he had been able to stay in the rotation through this period I would be more onboard but he was not there for most of it so I assume his 2024 is done . It could be a misguided take but I am happy with either way.        

Forget the "cruel" conversation .  This is a WONDERFUL problem to have moving into Fall Baseball.    The Brewers have so many great pitching options that they might have to thin things out .    I can think of worse issues to dwell on.   GO CREW. 

[Jake McKibbin]

9 hours ago, jesusoftheapes said:

I believe he was speaking about the 3rd time through not him as a relief pitcher.  Since he is not a starter anymore his 3rd time around argument is lost on me and anyone else for that matter.     Wilson is not going anywhere.   No matter how much the Talking Heads like Ashby .  

The argument here is more on the issues with the Brewers going to a six man rotation. They'd need length from their starters to compensate for a smaller bullpen, however by pushing DL Hall into long relief it makes Wilson's role slightly more redundant in the wake of other more successful reliefarms.

Either way it seems the IL stint has taken him first and we'll see how long that lasts for, but Ashby, Ross and Hall all look like genuine weapons out of the bullpen.

That being said, the Bryan Hudson demotion is something to watch, it's most likely to do with keeping him fresh but he is one of  the multi inning relief arms mentioned above and if the Brewers are concerned about his place on the playoff roster that may open a hole for Wilson or others