Can This Outfielder Be The Brewers' Sparkplug In October?

[Jake McKibbin]

Recent World Series contenders have often had a high-octane hitter leading the charge. From Randy Arozarena in 2020 to Jeremy Pena in 2022, Corbin Carroll in 2023, and maybe this young Brewers star in 2024?

Image courtesy of © Michael McLoone-Imagn Images

The young, energetic sparkplug isn’t a requirement of a world series team, but it is a common denominator among the underdog overachievers. Each of the Rays, Diamondbacks and Rangers were long shots to reach the World Series in their respective seasons, and those hot bats were a massive part of it, creating a wave of momentum that showed up time and again in the big moments. Some players live for the spotlight; others recoil from it. The Brewers may have just the player to do the former in October.

Before I start, Willy Adames is also the kind of player who has tended to rise to the occasion in big moments, and may very well be at the center of any and all success the Brewers have this postseason. So could William Contreras, Rhys Hoskins and Jackson Chourio be. However, in terms of the energy and excitement he creates on the field in a multitude of different ways, perhaps no one is quite so likely to propel the Brewers forward as Garrett Mitchell.

What Makes A Playoff Star?
First of all, the variety of ways in which they can affect the game is important. Corbin Carroll, Randy Arozarena, Jeremy Pena and Evan Carter all produced strong results in the batter's box, but their contributions ranged into some miraculous defensive plays and/or some havoc on the basepaths, too.

When crunch time comes around, the other essential is the ability to hit for power. Home runs  and extra-base hits decide playoff games and while a streaky hitter can get fortunate enough in a single month to compensate for a poor hit tool, a lack of power is a bit less negotiable. Would anyone expect Sal Frelick to hit multiple home runs in a month, or even one long ball in the playoffs?

Some combination of power, speed and defense is, therefore, essential to have a more lasting impact in the playoffs, and Garrett Mitchell possesses the ability to do all three of these. 

He’s an elite center fielder, with an Ultimate Zone Rating per 150 games (UZR/150) of 9.1 that places him 15th in the league, ahead of Blake Perkins and Sal Frelick. He covers a lot of ground and has an average throw of 89.8 mph from the outfield, to boot.

Mitchell's Statcast sprint speed is 29.5 feet per second, one of the highest in the game, and he uses this well on the basepaths. The jumps can be a little iffy at times, and he doesn’t always get great leads, but that speed can more than cover him. His reads in the field have looked better as of late.

Then there’s that bat. That electricity he generates whenever he's at the plate;

Is It Fluke Or Flair?
Mitchell’s profile as a hitter is baffling in a lot of ways, given the poor contact skills and high ground-ball rates, but what he’s showing is some real progression in how he elevates the ball and how he occasionally squares up those high heaters. He isn’t the complete player, by any means, when it comes to his hit tool, but improved selectivity has allowed him to access his raw power in games with relative regularity, on the way to slugging .574 in the month of September and posting a .906 OPS over the last three weeks.

Part of this is attributable to how pitchers are attacking him, and it seems like their game plan is slightly awry for a hitter who struggles so mightily with high fastballs. Only 50% of the pitches Mitchell has seen in September have been fastballs or sinkers. You’d expect that to rise significantly in October, but Mitchell has been his own deterrent:

He swings and misses a lot at the top of the strike zone, but Mitchell has done a decent job of laying off those pitches early in the count and not expanding above the strike zone. He sports an 18.8% chase rate on fastballs in September. When pitchers have missed slightly down in the zone, Mitchell has crushed the ball. Against right-handed fastballs, he hits the ball over 95 miles per hour off the bat and finds a premium launch angle 46.2% of the time this month, both of which are very strong marks. Narrowing the target and squeezing pitchers has been mightily effective, even against the cream of the crop like Zack Wheeler:

You would expect the elite pitchers with both command and raw stuff to be able to exploit his weaknesses, but to square up Wheeler’s fastball for a triple gives a good indication that Mitchell can continue to produce results in the playoffs despite the holes in his swing. Continuing to sting the ball as we move into October may allow Mitchell to shine on the big stage and be that difference-maker the Brewers will need for a deep playoff run. They have several bigger names who can shine in a big moment, but Garrett Mitchell is certainly one to watch as October draws near.

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Do you think Mitchell can be the difference maker this October? Can he drive the Brewers towards a World Series? Let us know your thoughts in the comments below!

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[Stealofhome]

Just say Garrett Mitchell in the title.

[Bratwithspecialsauce]

Why Mitchell isn't leading off is a mystery. I love Brice Turang, but his value is in his ability to advance runners and make things happen on the basepaths. Mitchell has superior extra base power, runs well (although not as good a base stealer) and in a lineup followed by Turang, Chourio, Contreras and Willy you've got a fast, powerful top five, which has been sorely lacking in the second half.

[Kripes - Brewers]

53 minutes ago, Stealofhome said:

Just say Garrett Mitchell in the title.

Clickbait 101 man!😉

[SF70]

Not expecting a breakout from Mitchell this postseason but sure looking forward to an offseason of more adjustments and hopefully a healthy 5+ WAR 2025 season.

[wallus]

That clip was really incredible to me. Mitchell easily turned that into a triple. What amazing speed and tools from him.

I say this often but I have been one of the bigger Mitchell fans on here. With that said, I think Perkins plays a better CF at this time, stats be damned. 

[Brian]

On 9/26/2024 at 8:48 AM, wallus said:

That clip was really incredible to me. Mitchell easily turned that into a triple. What amazing speed and tools from him.

I say this often but I have been one of the bigger Mitchell fans on here. With that said, I think Perkins plays a better CF at this time, stats be damned. 

I'm a fan also and with Sal hurt now he will probably be the man.