Can Brewers Pounce for Bobby Miller After Blake Snell Further Boosts Dodgers' Rotation?

[Jake McKibbin]

The addition of Blake Snell (while being odds-on favorites to sign Roki Sasaki, too) leaves the Dodgers with an abundance of talent and depth in their rotation. Can the Brewers leverage the Dodgers' surplus to acquire one of the game's highest-upside arms?

Image courtesy of © Matt Krohn-Imagn Images

Despite monstrous injury woes in 2024, the Dodgers are expected to have Shohei Ohtani, Blake Snell, Tyler Glasnow, Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Tony Gonsolin, Dustin May, and Bobby Miller available to serve in their 2025 rotation. While Ohtani likely mandates a six-man rotation, they also will have Emmett Sheehan and River Ryan returning during the season, with more talent at Triple A in the form of Jack Dreyer, Justin Wrobleski and Nick Frasso.

That makes 12 different arms already in their organization, seven of which have MLB experience and will be ready to start the season, with two ready to reinforce upon return from injury and three top-20 organizational prospects at Triple A. No matter how you skin cats, that’s an extreme level of depth. Heck, they're even expected to re-sign Clayton Kershaw for another season.

The Dodgers are likely to want strong depth in their system off the back of a 2024 season that highlighted just how easily a pitching staff can be brought to its knees, but they also have other areas of their system that they will want to add some talent, specifically in the outfield.

Andy Pages and Tommy Edman would be the most likely center field candidates to start for the Dodgers next season, none of whom shone defensively last season, while James Outman’s bat put him out of the picture for now. Their defensive runs saved in CF in 2024 were:

• Andy Pages: -8 DRS in 666 innings
• James Outman: -1 DRS in 337 innings
• Tommy Edman: 0 DRS in 188 innings

None of them were famously ferocious with the bat. Although Pages's 100 wRC+ in his rookie season is commendable, it was also fueled by a quick start before a large dropoff. The Dodgers lack a capable center fielder, and that’s something the Brewers have in excess, with Sal Frelick and Garrett Mitchell available should the right deal present itself. 

You could argue that neither side is forced to trade from their stores of depth, but both could be useful in upgrading a hole in the roster. The Brewers rotation lacks that high-upside pitcher, while the Dodgers lack a capable center fielder. That brings us to Bobby Miller.

Miller may be one of the most talented arms in baseball. Armed with a fastball whose perceived velocity was over 100 mph in 2023 and had above-average induced vertical break, it’s a unicorn pitch. For reference, his four-seamer in 2023 was thrown three miles per hour harder than Paul Skenes’s in 2024, with five inches of additional “rise”. Here's how Hunter Greene, Skenes and Miller compare on the fastball in the last two seasons:

He also had a 90-mph slider, with above-average movement for the velocity bracket it sits in, and a changeup that produced a 41% whiff rate in 2024. The stuff he possesses is not in question. How it mixes can be, and he may have a problem with his two-seamer, in that it doesn't separate much from his four-seam. It's really more of a four-seamer that he obtains additional run on when trying to get in on the hands to righthanders. However, they slugged .900 against it in 2024. Fastball variations are very attractive for the Brewers, but Miller's feel for spin and current arsenal may be better served with a cutter in lieu of the sinker.

You can easily see the space where a cutter might do a lot for Miller, in terms of limiting quality of contact against him. I'm not a fan of just advocating a cutter to every pitcher, but Miller's feel for spin in averaging 2,330 RPM on the fastball and occasionally hitting 3,000 RPM on the curveball should allow him to feel out an average or better offering.

This season's injury also devastated him. He lost velocity on the fastball and some dip on his breaking pitches, but most of all, he saw his command evaporate. He went from an 80th-percentile 6.3% walk rate down to a 10th percentile 11.2% rate, putting men on base more often while getting punished more regularly on mistake pitches with the drop in “stuff”:

Miller’s raw stuff makes him a fascinating buy-low target, although the Dodgers' own pitching development system is sturdy enough that you would expect them to be able to fix him themselves. In giving up on him, that could indicate that they feel he’ll never truly reach the heights he’s capable of, but in reality they have such an abundance of riches in the rotation that having a sidelined or optioned Miller is less valuable than a Garrett Mitchell patrolling center field.

One other potential target, albeit somewhat less expensive, would be Dustin May. May had some horrific injuries last year with his esophagus, and is prone to injuries over the rest of his career. May is in his final year of arbitration in 2025, but he showed some electric swing-and-miss ability on his four-seam fastball, cutter, curveball and changeup in 2021-22, while his sinker is a ground ball machine with a gaudy movement profile. His injury history checkers his value, and there’s no guarantee the Brewers can get a full season of his best production in 2025, but he would be an interesting target.

You can’t acquire top-of-the-rotation upside in trades without handing over a lot of prospect capital, unless that upside comes with some baggage. Top-tier rotation talent just does not get passed up easily. Bobby Miller has baggage from 2024, but as our supreme overlord Matthew Trueblood noted early in the season:

Injury may have deprived us of the 20-strikeout game, but it shows that while there is risk, there's also a genuine ace potential here. If the Brewers can find some way to pry Miller away from the Dodgers, they may benefit for years to come. Further distancing himself from the injury should revitalize Miller's fastball velocity, shape and command, while there is definitely more in the tank for how he can use his five-pitch mix to create even more swing-and-miss than he already has. The learning that comes simply from competing in the big leagues is still to come for Miller, and that's the upside the Brewers would be gambling on in this trade.

Baseball Trade Values (often better as a guideline than an exact resource) does place Garrett Mitchell and Bobby Miller as similar in terms of value. Delivering a one-for-one of Mitchell for Miller would be risky on both ends, with both having the ability to make their former teams look foolish. There could even be an add-on, if the Dodgers thought their rotation needed a bona fide closer (it probably doesn't), by adding in Devin Williams for Alex Freeland—an excellent defensive shortstop with strong bat-to-ball skills and solid pop for the left side of the infield. 

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What do you think of Bobby Miller? Do you think the Brewers can revive him? What would you be willing to give up for him? Let us know your thoughts in the comments below!

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[Jason Wang]

Perhaps this is an erroneous association but I kind of lump Bobby Miller and Walker Buehler together because both have demonstrated an ability to be effective in a major-league rotation, have ~16 inches of IVB on their heaters (didn't take a closer look than a quick peep on Baseball Savant for Walker Buehler tbh but idk looks close enough), and have taken massive steps backward after finding success. 

I think injury has a big part to play for both players and given how willing the Dodgers were to still utilize Buehler in key postseason moments tells me they still believe. Especially with Bobby's superior stuff and additional team control, I feel like it may be hard to pry him away.

That said, the Dodgers have too many starting pitchers so maybe they should start sharing the wealth a bit amirite

[Jake McKibbin]

9 hours ago, Jason Wang said:

Perhaps this is an erroneous association but I kind of lump Bobby Miller and Walker Buehler together because both have demonstrated an ability to be effective in a major-league rotation, have ~16 inches of IVB on their heaters (didn't take a closer look than a quick peep on Baseball Savant for Walker Buehler tbh but idk looks close enough), and have taken massive steps backward after finding success. 

I think injury has a big part to play for both players and given how willing the Dodgers were to still utilize Buehler in key postseason moments tells me they still believe. Especially with Bobby's superior stuff and additional team control, I feel like it may be hard to pry him away.

That said, the Dodgers have too many starting pitchers so maybe they should start sharing the wealth a bit amirite

Absolutely, I do think that the Dodgers would be trading low which most intelligent front offices wouldn't do, but the opportunity of getting something back of equal value in a different position of need with similar traits of a high upside, injury prone and low floor may tweak their interest. I would consider the Brewers to be getting the better end of the dal, but there's potential for both sides to look stupid two-three years after this trade happened.

I think getting Sasaki would really compound their depth and increase Miller's availability, but he won't come cheap.

 

[BrewerFan]

Miller is a guy I'd trade just about any prospect outside my top 10(Bitonti and Payne are inside it). 

MLB, Williams and Mitchell+a good, but not top 10 prospect for Miller and Ryan. 

Dream trade scenario IMO. 

 

I'd be open to dealing Peralta at that point, but probably in another year. I think those two have #1 upside, Ashby, if the shoulder is strong as it appeared, #2-3, Woody...1-3, Misirowski could be a long man. Serve in the Hader role. 

Those are also two guys I'm particularly high on. And...as such, they'll likely become the 15th and 16th pitchers for the LAD, on their tax squad, only to come up when a guy getting 30M a year needs a day off so they can throw 6 shutout innings. It's really just...insane the depth they have. 

[Harold Hutchison]

Color me a little less willing to part with Mitchell or Frelick.

Maybe Perkins, Peguero, and Dylan O'Rae in return for Miller and some international bonus money. Perkins is caught in the logjam, is a Gold Glove finalist, and has some pop and speed.

[Jake McKibbin]

1 hour ago, Harold Hutchison said:

Color me a little less willing to part with Mitchell or Frelick.

Maybe Perkins, Peguero, and Dylan O'Rae in return for Miller and some international bonus money. Perkins is caught in the logjam, is a Gold Glove finalist, and has some pop and speed.

I'm sure the Brewers don't feel like they want or need to trade from their major league outfielders just yet, that doesn't mean they can't be useful in a trade the Brewers think would increase their overall performance on the field in future seasons. Also, as Perkins, Peguero and O'Rae are deemed expendable in your books, they're also likely not too high on the Dodgers priorities either. You're certainly not getting any bonus pool money out of that deal.

To get something you'd need to give something, and throwing out a 2b/CF with no power, a reliever with massive command issues and a backup CF wouldn't cut it. Much as it would be great for the Brewers if it did!

I think my offer is a win for both sides, but that would only be determined by how things panned out. the Brewers have slightly more upside potentially, but also Miller's lack of track record in the majors just yet impinges his value whereas Mitchell, despite underlying concerns, has produced in games both offensively and defensively.

[Harold Hutchison]

23 hours ago, Jake McKibbin said:

I'm sure the Brewers don't feel like they want or need to trade from their major league outfielders just yet, that doesn't mean they can't be useful in a trade the Brewers think would increase their overall performance on the field in future seasons. Also, as Perkins, Peguero and O'Rae are deemed expendable in your books, they're also likely not too high on the Dodgers priorities either. You're certainly not getting any bonus pool money out of that deal.

To get something you'd need to give something, and throwing out a 2b/CF with no power, a reliever with massive command issues and a backup CF wouldn't cut it. Much as it would be great for the Brewers if it did!

I think my offer is a win for both sides, but that would only be determined by how things panned out. the Brewers have slightly more upside potentially, but also Miller's lack of track record in the majors just yet impinges his value whereas Mitchell, despite underlying concerns, has produced in games both offensively and defensively.

Perkins is arguably the best defensive CF in the majors. Given how loaded their lineup is, a Gold Glove finalist. O'Rae is still a MLB Pipeline Top 30 prospect. Peguero is arguably the biggest stretch, but it could be upgraded to Payamps or I could instead offer Jorge Quintana, who's basically the third-best shortstop prospect behind Jesus Made and Luis Pena from the Crew's 2024 international, but still a Top 30 prospect.

The Brewers have depth, too.

[Jake McKibbin]

37 minutes ago, Harold Hutchison said:

Perkins is arguably the best defensive CF in the majors. Given how loaded their lineup is, a Gold Glove finalist. O'Rae is still a MLB Pipeline Top 30 prospect. Peguero is arguably the biggest stretch, but it could be upgraded to Payamps or I could instead offer Jorge Quintana, who's basically the third-best shortstop prospect behind Jesus Made and Luis Pena from the Crew's 2024 international, but still a Top 30 prospect.

The Brewers have depth, too.

Absolutely, I'm not saying they don't have value, I think Perkins in particular has some given the slightly below league average bat and incredible defense.

That being said, it's not enough for someone with the talent of a Bobby Miller, and as I said get something you'd have to give up something.

The Dodgers aren't so much in need of depth pieces as starting caliber outfielders and for that, and the upside factor, they'd probably want a Garrett Mitchell.

Even then, postulating trades is a wild goose chase but looking at the Dodgers need and the limitations currently shown by O'Rae and his 1 HR last year, and of Peguero, the Dodgers would need something either more major league ready and with higher upside, or a lower level talent with that same high upside as they got in Zyhir Hope/Jackson Ferris from the Cubs last season.

[SF70]

Miller no, Sheehan yes.

I normally would never acquire a young Dodgers starting pitcher due to the likelihood of damaged goods, but Sheehan would be the exception due to his coming off TJ surgery last year and being able to finish his rehab in the Brewers system.