Make Or Break Players On The 2025 Brewers: Tyler Black

[Harold Hutchison]

Going into spring training in 2024, Tyler Black seemed poised to compete with Jackson Chourio for best rookie on the Brewers, if not National League Rookie of the Year. Yet he only got 49 at-bats in Milwaukee and rode the Milwaukee-Nashville shuttle multiple times. It's not exactly the long leash Jackson Chourio received.

Image courtesy of © Michael McLoone-Imagn Images / © Benny Sieu-Imagn Images

How did it do wrong for Tyler Black, whose bat has never been a question? Can he still be a major contributor for the Brewers? Let’s take a longer look at the state of Tyler Black as spring training starts for the 2025 Brewers.

What Went Wrong In 2024?
The short version is that Tyler Black didn’t do anything wrong, per se. He just got caught up in a logjam created by three trades and a free-agent signing.

On November 14, 2023, the Brewers acquired Oliver Dunn for Hendry Mendez and Robert Moore. That created some competition for Black, but things got crowded when the Brewers signed Rhys Hoskins on January 26, 2024, then acquired Joey Ortiz in the February Corbin Burnes trade. That effectively blocked both corner infield positions. Ortiz was red-hot in the first half of the season at the hot corner, while Jake Bauers, acquired in a November 17, 2023 trade for Jace Avina and Brian Sanchez, complemented Hoskins.

For Black, those moves meant he would be starting 2024 in Nashville, while Chourio was in Milwaukee all season. He would get three cups of coffee with the Brewers but never regularly started, and the Brewers didn’t even call him up when Christian Yelich was lost for the season, depriving him of a chance to adjust to MLB pitching.

Part of this is due to a lack of a true defensive home. Black played second base, third base, center field, left field, and first base competently. However, the Brewers’ philosophy has been on run prevention, which gives long leashes to excellent defenders who sometimes struggle at the plate, like Brice Turang or Blake Perkins. With Yelich likely at designated hitter due to the “fantastic four” young outfielders (Chourio, Perkins, Garrett Mitchell, and Sal Frelick), Black’s bat can’t get into the lineup barring a trade or injury.

What Can Go Right In 2025?
For Black, it starts with hitting. If his bat is hot enough, he can bypass Bauers and fellow NRI Ernesto Martinez as the left-handed complement to Hoskins. He also offers more positional versatility than both since he can play second and third bases in addition to the outfield and first base.

Once Black gets regular at-bats, he can put up an OPS similar to what Chourio did in 2024 – albeit weighted more towards on-base than slugging percentage, and he will add excellent baserunning to the mix (78-for-93 in stolen bases across the past two seasons). His week could easily be along the lines of five to six starts a week (two to three at third, one or two at first base, one at DH, occasional starts in left field).

Once Black completes his adjustment to MLB pitching, it would not be hard to imagine him posting a .380 on-base and .410 slugging percentage, roughly a 115 OPS+ based on 2024 numbers. And he should get better as he gets more familiar with MLB pitching.

How Will This Impact The 2025 Brewers?
For starters, if Black can get almost every day playing time, he gives the Brewers an upgrade over Brice Turang at the leadoff spot in the lineup. Turang led off for the Crew 86 times in 2024. He’s a great leadoff option when he's hot, but when his bat gets colder, it may behoove the Brewers to bat him ninth.

Black offers a much higher offensive floor, and his ceiling would be akin to the 1987-1992 version of Paul Molitor. This would allow Milwaukee to keep Turang in the ninth spot of the lineup, where his speed and baserunning can still do a lot of damage but where his hot-and-cold bat won’t have such high stakes early in a game.

In addition, he could allow Yelich and Hoskins to get rest regularly, which might keep them healthy and rested for not only trying to secure a playoff spot but also making a deep playoff run.

The 2024 Brewers got 3.1 wins above average from Willy Adames. It’s not hard to imagine Black posting at least three wins above replacement for the 2025 Brewers if things go right (which is defined by at least two starts a week at third base, in addition to resting Yelich and Hoskins). That would make up a lot of the offense Adames posted, even if it might not be 32 homers.

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[Brian]

For starters Tyler Black, primarily a first baseman and Jackson Chourio are not even in the same universe as far as offensive talent go's, plus Chourio is 4 years younger.

The question asked is like saying who was better Goeff Jenkins or Reggie Jackson because Goeff Jenkins had a better career batting average than Reggie Jackson. 

My biggest concern for Chourio is: Can he stay healthy playing every day?  We should at least be comparing by positions otherwise it will turn into a comparison of 10,000 odd questions. 

[DuWayne Steurer]

"Once Black completes his adjustment to MLB pitching, it would not be hard to imagine him posting a .380 on-base"

What? So... it would not be hard imagining a rookir having the 2nd highest obp in the NL?

What???

[TURBO]

That's a REALLY big stretch thinking Black can play 2B and 3B at the MLB level..  That ain't happening, that ship has sailed.

[Doug B]

"his ceiling would be akin to the 1987-1992 version of Paul Molitor."

Mr. Black must live in a single-story house that is 50 feet tall, because that ceiling is impossibly high. You just compared him to a HOF'er at his peak? C'mon man, nobody is buying that comp. 

More realistic hopes would be .260/.350/.400 like a poor man's Shin-Soo Choo or something. 

[Doug B]

On 2/17/2025 at 8:37 PM, TURBO said:

That's a REALLY big stretch thinking Black can play 2B and 3B at the MLB level..  That ain't happening, that ship has sailed.

I think they will let him compete at 3B and see what he can do. They value defense though so he might not make it there. But I can't figure out why Jake Bauers would be the backup at 1B/DH when they have Black. It seems like Bauers has had his chances. He's 29 years old. Now THAT ship has sailed.