Make-or-Break Players on the 2025 Milwaukee Brewers: Sal Frelick

[Jason Wang]

Two years after his debut, it’s time for the Brewers' annual spring training hot topic to decide who he wants to be: potential All-Star, or eventual liability.

Image courtesy of © Michael McLoone-Imagn Images / © Benny Sieu-Imagn Images

What Went Wrong in 2024?
After 747 major-league plate appearances, I think we have enough data to describe Sal Frelick fairly accurately—with numbers to back it up. Defensively, he’s stellar. He won a Gold Glove for his efforts in the outfield last season, accumulating a combined 15 Defensive Runs Saved across all three outfield positions. He spent most of his time in right field, where he found the most success, but he was also an above-average center fielder. With very good speed, he has an exceptional ability to cover long distances and chase down even the farthest-hit fly balls. Sometimes, he even goes a bit over the wall for them.

Offensively, it’s a different story. As a rookie, he was known more for his glove than his bat, but he still managed a 90 OPS+. With a starting spot in the lineup over a full season, his offensive numbers got a little worse, falling to an 83 OPS+. The most glaring weakness in his hitting is his lack of pop. He placed in the 1st percentile of qualified hitters for average exit velocity (83.4 mph), barrel rate (0.8%), and hard-hit rate (19.5%). This culminated in just two home runs last year, and an ISO of just .076—less than half the league-average ISO of .161. To make matters even worse, his low average launch angle of 9.7 degrees further limits his ability to go for extra bases.

But it goes even deeper than that. Thanks to bat-tracking data that was introduced to Statcast, we can get a closer look as to whether a player is truly getting all that he can out of his swing. The two figures that are now measured on Baseball Savant are swing speed and squared-up rate. The former is pretty straightforward, but the latter measures something far more helpful. Statcast defines squared-up rate as:

Quote

A swing’s squared-up rate tells us how much of the highest possible exit velocity available (based on the physics related to the swing speed and pitch speed). A player's squared-up rate is the percentage of their swings on which they achieve at least 80% of that maximum possible exit velocity.a batter was able to obtain.

Sal Frelick has 3rd-percentile bat speed, but a 92nd-percentile squared-up rate, meaning he’s actually getting all that he can out of his current swing. With a relatively small 5-foot-8, 185-pound frame, he might just not have the natural oomph of his bigger compatriots. 

What Can Go Right in 2025?
The great thing about baseball is that there isn’t just one way to play the game. Sure, big guys like Aaron Judge and Giancarlo Stanton can get balls out of the park at 110 mph no problem, but smaller guys like Jose Altuve and Donovan Solano have found ways to stick around by playing to their strengths. Frelick’s strength is his bat-to-ball skills. His whiff rate of just 12.9% and his strikeout rate of 14.9% place him among the game’s best contact kings. Interestingly, his chase rate of 25.8% isn’t as exceptional, but it’s definitely better than average.

To me, the ideal player for Frelick to strive toward would be Steven Kwan. Both Frelick and Kwan are outstanding outfielders who have smaller frames, with limited natural power. Here is how their key offensive numbers stack up: 

	Average EV	LA Sweet-Spot Rate	Chase Rate	Whiff Rate	K Rate	BB Rate
Steven Kwan	86.3 mph	38.5%	19.2%	8.2%	9.4%	9.8%
Sal Frelick	83.4 mph	30.0%	25.8%	12.9%	14.9%	7.4%

 

Kwan has been much better at lifting the ball just the right amount, boasting a launch angle sweet-spot rate in the top quartile of MLB. Additionally, he has a higher walk rate that gives him an additional boost to his on-base percentage, which was .368 in 2024. If Frelick can dial in his skillset to have many of the same qualities, not only could he improve his batting average and overall production at the plate, he could utilize his speed on the basepaths and not just the outfield.

How Will This Impact the 2025 Brewers?
Last year, the Brewers' offense was actually quite good, posting a team OPS of .729 which landed them 10th in MLB. Unfortunately, they’ve lost Willy Adames, who had the second-highest OPS+ of qualified hitters on the team. Without any major lineup additions to compensate, they’ll have to lean on some of their younger hitters to take a big step forward. With the Cubs looming as a major divisional threat, 2025 might offer the toughest road to a division win for the Brewers in several years. 

If Frelick can adjust his offensive approach and put up an OPS+ of 100-110 while maintaining his outstanding work in the outfield, it wouldn’t be unreasonable to see him accumulate 3-4 rWAR. In a situation where that could end up being the difference between a playoff spot and watching October from the quasi-comfort of their offseason homes, this improvement might not only be a make-or-break for young Salvatore, it could make or break Milwaukee’s whole season.

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[jay87shot]

I like the Steven Kwan angle, Sal has always reminded me of a smaller Johnny Damon. Hopefully the weight he added this offseason adds some power. I don't need Sal to hit HR's but with his speed he should be at like 40 combined 2B and 3B which a little more launch angle should help and he needs to take a few more walks. If he can get his OBP up over .350 and closer to .375 I think we will get the version of Sal I envisioned as a prospect. Have we heard if he is taking any reps at 3B or 2B? I haven't heard a lot from camp so far.

[Trax]

One young player we don't have to worry about is Sal.   The only question is how high is that ceiling.

 

Talent, work ethic, intelligence, baseball skills, versatility. He's going to be a good player for a long time.