Cubs in last place

[Fear The Chorizo]

Just now, Jopal78 said:

I don’t know about that PCA will be just 23 in a few days (a hair under two years older than Chourio).
 

 In 1120 minor league plate appearances PCA hit .296/.368/.515. In 1211 minor league PAs Chourio hit .286/.347/.490.

Obviously, he’s struggled in the majors more than Chourio, but much to our chagrin it’s realistically too early to write off someone with that kind of minor league production. If he could manage to be 85% of what he was in the minor leagues he’ll play for a decade as a CFer 

I'm not saying PCA's ceiling is that of a 5th OF at the MLB level - he's just not going to be a perennial all star because he won't hit consistently enough to allow the rest of his elite tools to shine and be a player rival teams will hate facing for years and years.  Sure, still just 23 - but he's now into his 3rd season where he's played at the MLB level, and at some point either that superstar switch has to light up or it's obvious it just isn't there in a guy to begin with.

Also, it's not fair to any prospect to compare what they've done compared to what Chourio did in MLB last season as a 20 yr old...even with his first 1.5 months of struggles, what Chourio did was historic.

[Jopal78]

15 minutes ago, Fear The Chorizo said:

I'm not saying PCA's ceiling is that of a 5th OF at the MLB level - he's just not going to be a perennial all star because he won't hit consistently enough to allow the rest of his elite tools to shine and be a player rival teams will hate facing for years and years.  Sure, still just 23 - but he's now into his 3rd season where he's played at the MLB level, and at some point either that superstar switch has to light up or it's obvious it just isn't there in a guy to begin with.

Also, it's not fair to any prospect to compare what they've done compared to what Chourio did in MLB last season as a 20 yr old...even with his first 1.5 months of struggles, what Chourio did was historic.

For real? PCA has 436 major league plate appearances, that’s almost 100 fewer than Chourio. He’s barely played. Just say you’re biased already. 
 

I have no idea if PCA is going to be a good player or not. I do know he was a monster in the minor leagues and out produced Chourio’s numbers albeit while slightly older.
Next, make no mistake I hope he fails because as a Brewer fan the schadenfreude would be satisfying.
 

However, if you’re willing to write of a 23 year old, with the stats and the pedigree after less than 450 PAs it simply means you’re biased and not looking at things realistically. 

[markedman5]

“Can’t lose them all if you don’t lose the first 2” Confucius 

[Jim French Stepstool]

4 hours ago, Underachiever said:

I watched game 1. Really fun that as a cubs home game, there were 30k dodger fans in jerseys and Let’s Go Dodgers chants. Nice to give LA some exposure to that market. Hope it helps that plucky little franchise sign some Japanese players. 
 

That was sarcasm, but deferred until 2030.

I was wondering about that. So these were games that otherwise would've been in Chicago? Good! All the sweeter.

[Fear The Chorizo]

17 minutes ago, Jopal78 said:

For real? PCA has 436 major league plate appearances, that’s almost 100 fewer than Chourio. He’s barely played. Just say you’re biased already. 
 

I have no idea if PCA is going to be a good player or not. I do know he was a monster in the minor leagues and out produced Chourio’s numbers albeit while slightly older.
Next, make no mistake I hope he fails because as a Brewer fan the schadenfreude would be satisfying.
 

However, if you’re willing to write of a 23 year old, with the stats and the pedigree after less than 450 PAs it simply means you’re biased and not looking at things realistically. 

All of Chourio's minor league #s occurred while he was a teenager, starting with typical DSL time logged as a 17 yr old.  PCA had all of 32 plate appearances in the minors as a teenager in his 1st minor league season right after getting drafted.  I'm not saying PCA hasn't put up solid production when you look at counting stats as a minor leaguer - there's a reason he's already in MLB as a 23 yr old player.  However, PCA's minor league hitting production shouldn't be compared to Chourio while hinting in any sort of way that PCA might develop into the same type of talent offensively.  PCA has been up at MLB long enough where his age has less and less significance with room for hitting improvement at the game's highest level compared to his actual MLB service time logged, while Chourio OPS-d around 0.900 from June through the end of last season at 20 yrs old.

And of course I'm a bit biased and want to be quick to react to what I feel is yet another severely overrated Cub prospect - I actually have felt this way about PCA since he initially broke into MLB in late 2023, and that was based on his less than pedestrian batted ball exit velo #s in the minor leagues.  He has made some improvements in that department, but his chase rate remains a big problem.  PCA's a great outfield defender who will have a good MLB career provided he avoids significant injuries that diminish him defensively - he just won't be able to hit enough to be viewed as a great all-around player.  

[wiguy94]

58 minutes ago, Jopal78 said:

For real? PCA has 436 major league plate appearances, that’s almost 100 fewer than Chourio. He’s barely played. Just say you’re biased already. 
 

I have no idea if PCA is going to be a good player or not. I do know he was a monster in the minor leagues and out produced Chourio’s numbers albeit while slightly older.
Next, make no mistake I hope he fails because as a Brewer fan the schadenfreude would be satisfying.
 

However, if you’re willing to write of a 23 year old, with the stats and the pedigree after less than 450 PAs it simply means you’re biased and not looking at things realistically. 

Feel like you trying to play it off as "slightly older" is pretty misleading. PCA was 2 years older than Chourio at every single level he was at. That's a huge gap. PCA was in A and A+ when Chourio was in the MLB. PCA was in AA when Chourio is entering his 2nd MLB season after putting up a near 4 WAR season in his rookie year. Comparing him in any way to Chourio is pointless. These are very different level prospects and players.

PCA can certainly be an All Star level player and will very certainly be an annual 3+ WAR guy because his defense and baserunning are that good, but he has not been a good hitter in both AAA and the MLB. His hitting success in the minors was pretty much entirely in A, A+, and AA.

[mudbutt]

I don't really like comparing minor league hitting stats between players because you can have guys have the same exact results, but have wildly different MLB success because one guy's approach may top out in AAA or whatever while the other continues to be effective.  In PCA's case he is an aggressive hitter and was able to get away with it in the minors, but ran into the buzzsaw of MLB pitching last year.  He's got a few red flags as a hitter and probably the one I would be most concerned about is pitch recognization/breaking balls.  Now to his credit he did move back a foot back in the box and added a leg kick to help with his timing with a steep swing plane, but I am not a believer.  I think hitting will always be a struggle for him other than maybe a hot year that tricks a team in overpaying for him.  But lucky for him his defense and running is so strong that he doesn't need to hit much.  I just think he is a bottom order of the guy. 

[Jopal78]

2 hours ago, wiguy94 said:

Feel like you trying to play it off as "slightly older" is pretty misleading. PCA was 2 years older than Chourio at every single level he was at. That's a huge gap. PCA was in A and A+ when Chourio was in the MLB. PCA was in AA when Chourio is entering his 2nd MLB season after putting up a near 4 WAR season in his rookie year. Comparing him in any way to Chourio is pointless. These are very different level prospects and players.

PCA can certainly be an All Star level player and will very certainly be an annual 3+ WAR guy because his defense and baserunning are that good, but he has not been a good hitter in both AAA and the MLB. His hitting success in the minors was pretty much entirely in A, A+, and AA.

Right now on March 19  2025, Courio is 21 years old, and Pete Crow Armstrong is 22.  He‘s not quite 2 whole years older. It’s factual. Sheesh. 
 

I’m not comparing Chourio to PCA either. I’m pointing out to those drawing conclusions that PCA won’t bet a good hitter that his minor league numbers were huge (like Chourio’s), PCA has less experience as a professional in both the majors and the minors than Chourio (who is a terrific player). Therefore realistically it’s early to draw conclusions on someone’s career who is that young, with so little  experience and yet those similarities to a terrific MLB player. .

But I get it, it’s the same site where there were  40+ pages worth of posts from folks convinced it was too early to write off Hiura as a bust after 1000 PAs despite what the facts said.

[wiguy94]

23 minutes ago, Jopal78 said:

Right now on March 19  2025, Courio is 21 years old, and Pete Crow Armstrong is 22.  He‘s not quite 2 whole years older. It’s factual. Sheesh. 
 

I’m not comparing Chourio to PCA either. I’m pointing out to those drawing conclusions that PCA won’t bet a good hitter that his minor league numbers were huge (like Chourio’s), PCA has less experience as a professional in both the majors and the minors than Chourio (who is a terrific player). Therefore realistically it’s early to draw conclusions on someone’s career who is that young, with so little  experience and yet those similarities to a terrific MLB player. .

But I get it, it’s the same site where there were  40+ pages worth of posts from folks convinced it was too early to write off Hiura as a bust after 1000 PAs despite what the facts said.

He's 1 year and 50 weeks older than Chourio. It's 2 years and you unsurprisingly missed my entire point. Chourio was 2 years younger than PCA at every single minor league level. That's not "slightly older" in prospect years and minor league production does not equal major league production. Sal Frelick's MLB wRC+ is 38 points lower than his MiLB wRC+. I certainly hope you've never written off Sal Frelick's ability to hit in the MLB because by your logic he's not even 2 years older than PCA.