Should Logan Henderson Start in Place of the Injured Tobias Myers?

[Jack Stern]

Despite the manager throwing his name into the ring to fill a fresh vacancy, it's not yet a fitting time for one of the Brewers' top pitching prospects to join the big-league starting rotation.

Image courtesy of © Dave Kallmann / Milwaukee Journal Sentinel / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

A day after Pat Murphy designated Logan Henderson as a potential rotation replacement for an injured Tobias Myers, he gave a harsh public evaluation of the 23-year-old’s three-inning start in Peoria against the San Diego Padres.

“That’s not acceptable,” Murphy said. “That’s not acceptable to walk four people. That’s not who he is. He’s got to be better than that.”

The manager was not wrong. Henderson walked just 4.7% of opponents in the minor leagues last year. Filling the strike zone is one of his strengths. But while the free passes drew Murphy’s ire on Monday, it was another foible that indicated Henderson needs more development time in Nashville before the Brewers can seriously consider him for big-league starts.

The right-hander has gotten excellent mileage from a great fastball and changeup combination in the minors. Last year in Triple A, his four-seamer averaged 17.3 inches of induced vertical break—often reaching an elite 20 inches—from a below-average release height of 5.28 feet. That makes the ball difficult to get on top of, yielding a 29.3% whiff rate against the pitch. His real bread and butter is a plus changeup that averaged 17.9 inches of arm-side run and falls off the table as it nears the plate; it held Triple-A opponents to a .193 xwOBA with a 32.6% whiff rate.

To be a big-league starter, though, Henderson needs a viable third pitch with glove-side movement. He mixed in a cutter in the minors and has added a slider this spring.

Both offerings have been inconsistent. They looked passible in Henderson’s previous outing at a Statcast-equipped park on March 5th, but backed up on him a few times in his start this week.

It’s understandable that Murphy would propose a strike-thrower with two highly effective pitches as a potential substitute for Myers. However, his absence seems likely to be brief, and the Brewers have several length options (with higher floors) who should be ahead of Henderson on the depth chart. Tyler Alexander could slide into the fourth rotation spot for a few turns, with Connor Thomas, Elvin Rodriguez, and Chad Patrick among the additional candidates.

The Brewers don’t need Henderson yet, and he has not quite found the elusive third pitch he’ll need to navigate big-league lineups multiple times within an outing. He may surface in the bullpen at some point this year, but for now, more seasoning in Nashville is the best thing for his development.

View full article

[jay87shot]

I would rather give the young(er) guys who have a shot at a rotation spot next year get the shot 1st. Thomas probably has had the best spring (unless he has had a bad outing the past couple days), but probably the worst stuff of the group. Elvin Rodriguez is 27 so I dont have any problems with him getting a shot, Patrick could get the nod based on last year. However, I would go with Logan Henderson for 2 times through the order and then have a multi inning guy ready after him. 

Freddy, Civale, Nestor, Henderson, bullpen game (1st time)

Freddy, Civale, Nestor, Henderson, Quintana (2nd)

Freddy, Civale, Nestor, Henderson, Woody, Quintana (3rd)

If Henderson has been good stick to the 6 man if not go 5 man until Myers is back.

[endaround]

Henderson was bad in AAA last year.  Can we not rush guys who are not ready?

[wallus]

Patrick should get first dibs at the spot. Let Henderson spend a little time in AAA.

[Sugarrayray]

Hey has anybody noticed - his fastball velo seems well up this spring? I don’t have the exact numbers but I know I’ve seen a good number of 95s when he has pitched.

[GasserFace]

I think a bullpen game would be in order, with a Alexander, Rodriguez, Thomas mash up, depending on the circumstances leading up to those fourth and fifth games. 

Hopefully, Quintana will be ready to roll by game 4 or 5, or the 4 slot second time around.  

To Murph's point, Henderson seemed timid against the meat of the Padres lineup.  I was disappointed as well because I think he has made great strides but not enough to burn an option just yet.  I'm not sold on Patrick either.  Team may have to take a 'schedule' loss in game 5.