Bad Overall Showing from Jackson Chourio, Bad Break Make for Opening Day Brewers Loss

[Matthew Trueblood]

If the Brewers are absolutely sick to death of how lucky the best hitter in baseball always seems to get against them, you can't blame them.

Image courtesy of © Brad Penner-Imagn Images

Last April, a game got away from the Brewers when Aaron Judge stuck his sliding mitt approximately 16 feet into the air and deflected a would-be double-play relay throw by shortstop Willy Adames. Tons of slow-motion replays were consulted, in search of a conspiracy by the umpires to overlook intentional interference by Judge, and there's little question that he sticks his elongated, protected paw up when he slides for just that reason, but it seemed as though he just got lucky on that particular play. However, that was no consolation for the team (or for fans). It was a frustrating way to have a game get out of reach, whether the play involved intent or not.

In the bottom of the sixth inning of Thursday's season-opening game in the Bronx, the breaks of the game all seemed to go the way of one of the most talented players on the planet again. With two runners on base and one out, Judge smashed a hard ground ball against Brewers reliever Jared Koenig. Third baseman Vinny Capra was in position, guarding the line and playing deep behind the bag. He seemed, momentarily, sure to snare the ball and collect at least one out. If he was especially quick, he might have had a chance to field the ball, beat the onrushing runner to third base, and throw out Judge to kill the home rally and keep the score 2-1 Yankees.

None of that got a chance to happen, or even to not happen. Sure, Capra might have bobbled the sharply hit ball, or been unable to change direction fast enough to get to third, or thrown erratically to first base. Had the ball continued on the course it first set, the Brewers still might not have gotten an out on the play. They probably would have, though. Alas, instead of any of those possibilities, the game found the most fiendishly unpredictable option. The ball hit the top of third base on the second hop, bounced right over Capra's head, and trickled down the left-field line for an RBI double. Before the inning was over, it was 4-1 Yankees. The Brewers mounted a rally against ex-teammate Devin Williams in the ninth, but fell short. That hilariously unlucky (or lucky, depending on your perspective) went a long way toward determining the outcome of the game.

That's not to say that the Brewers couldn't have avoided that fate, even after the brutal bounce—or before it. Their offense wasn't good enough to win, anyway. Visibly and maddeningly, right after the base hit by Judge, Jackson Chourio missed a chance to hold the runner at third on a high, medium-shallow fly ball by Cody Bellinger. After Isaac Collins pinch-hit for Garrett Mitchell in the previous frame, Pat Murphy realigned his outfield, moving Chourio to right. Chourio played a team-high 45 innings in right during Cactus League play, so no one can claim that Murphy didn't prepare him for this very situation, but the hard-hit, sky-high fly gave the young outfielder trouble.

Chourio managed to be a good defensive outfielder in his rookie season, but he got there using his sheer speed and athleticism. When it comes to getting quick reads and taking efficient routes, Chourio still shows his inexperience and has considerable room to improve. On an especially high fly into a bright sky, the young player struggled to properly line himself up with the ball and get behind it.

Partially because he wasn't set and lined up optimally, Chourio's throw home carried offline, toward third base. The run scored, extending New York's lead. That was a much more avoidable tally, from the Brewers' perspective. There was a shortfall of execution, rather than a mere stroke of bad luck.

Unfortunately, it was the story of the day for Chourio, who also went 0-5 at the plate and struck out five times. For much of this season, he will be the best or second-best player on the field for the Brewers. Even the greats have lousy days, though, and this was one of them for the 21-year-old phenom. His ninth-inning strikeout against Williams (with the tying run in scoring position and one out) was the single biggest play of the game, according to Win Probability Added, and his five punchouts hurt the Brewers' chances of winning by a cumulative 21.6%. Add that foible on the fly ball, and it's fair to say that the team's star was the biggest individual reason they lost.

Freddy Peralta also could have been sharper (and smarter) right out of the chute. He threw three straight fastballs to leadoff man Austin Wells in the first inning, and because he missed with the first two, the third was a get-me-over offering that Wells knocked over the shallow wall in right field. Peralta also gave up a too-easy home run to Yankees shortstop Anthony Volpe in the second inning with a fastball that lacked conviction. In general, though, he pitched quite well, and the Brewers clawed their way back to force a tense finish.

It's just one game. It wasn't a fun one to lose, especially because crummy luck played such a major role, but it can be shoved well into the rearview if the team bounces back with a win on Saturday. Chourio, at least, is sure to be better.

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[Terry]

A couple charts I made.

From today

Last season


It seems like there's some cut action to his fastball, not sure if it's intentional or simply because of release angle change. Really like his changeup, less velo differential with more movement separation. Also has a revamped curveball as well.

[Brian]

Unfortunately, it was the story of the day for Chourio, who also went 0-5 at the plate and struck out five times. 

Chourio didn't look right yesterday, his eyes were puffy and looked like he was in a daze or no sleep nerves.  We have 161 more to go so hopefully a bounce back tomorrow.  We did get 7 hits but all spread out again as usual. Oh well, game one is out of the way. 

[Paul]

Why is Chourio batting lead off and Frelick batting fifth?

[sveumrules]

13 minutes ago, Paul said:

Why is Chourio batting lead off and Frelick batting fifth?

Trend around MLB the last couple years has been to put the best hitters at the top of the order to get the most PAs. Last year out of the leadoff spot there were guys like Schwarber (691 PA | 38 HR), Henderson (544 PA | 31 HR), Lindor (500 PA | 26 HR) and Ohtani (419 PA | 35 HR).

In total there were seven players with at least 20 HR batting in the #1 spot versus zero with 20 HR batting in the #5 spot (Stanton and Ozuna just missed at 19 each) in 2024.

Last two years now the league average leadoff hitter (111 and 108 wRC+) has been better than the average clean up hitter (108 and 106 wRC+).

[yfinn6]

3 hours ago, Paul said:

Why is Chourio batting lead off and Frelick batting fifth?

I'm completely fine with Chourio hitting leadoff but would rather see Mitchell and Frelick swap places. Heck, I'd prefer Frelick to hit where Turang does but pretty minor quibble.