What Will it Take for Tobias Myers to Return to the Brewers?

[Jack Stern]

Image courtesy of © Benny Sieu-Imagn Images

Tobias Myers was more likely to regress somewhat than to take another leap forward in his second big-league season. In contrast to his 3.00 ERA last year, his 4.22 xERA, 3.99 SIERA, and 105 DRA- indicated he pitched like a capable back-of-the-rotation starter. Still, the 26-year-old was returning to the same run-prevention system that enabled him to maximize his stuff, and he seemed positioned for at least a serviceable sophomore season.

An oblique injury sidelined Myers in spring training and delayed his season debut to late April. When he did return to the mound, the results did not resemble last year’s valuable mid-rotation production. In six appearances (five starts), he pitched to a 4.95 ERA, 4.53 FIP, and 126 DRA-, with a 1.50 strikeout-to-walk ratio.

Spraying pitches outside the strike zone was an issue in Myers's first three starts, but he spent plenty of time in the zone on May 17 against the Minnesota Twins—who smacked him around for 11 hits. The following day, the Brewers optioned him to Triple-A Nashville for the second time this year; he has remained there for a month.

The big-league rotation is occupied by five high-performing starters, and Myers finds himself behind Logan Henderson (and, in a few weeks, possibly Brandon Woodruff and Nestor Cortes) on the second tier of the depth chart. He hasn’t done much in Nashville to improve his standing, pitching to a 4.18 ERA and 4.16 FIP without making the process-based changes necessary to turn his performance around.

Pat Murphy said after multiple Myers outings that he wanted him to make fuller use of his five-pitch arsenal—particularly a changeup that held opponents to a .163 wOBA last year and induced whiffs on 42.9% of swings. The right-hander, whose changeup usage against lefties had dried up almost entirely from 19.2% last year to 3.4% before his demotion, had a similar assessment after that Twins outing.

“I think just mix speeds a little bit better,” Myers said when asked how he can reduce loud contact. “Throw the changeup more, throw the curveball a little bit more. I think that'll open up a little bit more opportunity for the fastball to play. I feel like I was kind of just sitting in one speed zone tonight, fastball-cutter-slider, and just not enough to get them off the barrel.”

That fastball-cutter-slider triad worked wonders for Myers a year ago, accounting for 84.4% of his pitches. He often tunneled those pitches off one another down the middle or off the outer third of the strike zone.

This year, he’s leaned on those three offerings even more, throwing them a combined 95.6% of the time in the big leagues. The tunneling hasn’t been quite as precise, including too many sliders catching too much plate.

Fluctuating velocity hasn’t helped, either. While the observed shapes of his cutter and slider remain distinct far more than they overlap, their speeds are closer since the former has lost a couple of ticks. That decreased the difference between their observed vertical drop from 12.1 inches last year to 10.9 this season.

With where his stuff and execution were, his usual method of attack was less successful. Opponents hit Myers’s fastball a bit harder, but most notably, they made much more contact with his slider. Its out-of-zone whiff rate plummeted from 44.7% of swings to 17.6%.

While Myers’s curveball has a place as a mix-in pitch for an occasional different look, he must limit its usage because it doesn’t tunnel well with the rest of his arsenal. In the visual below from last year, notice how the curveball’s blue track immediately separates from those of his remaining pitches.

That leaves throwing more changeups as Myers’s best bet for disrupting timing without sacrificing deception. He’s flashed the pitch more in certain outings since his demotion, but not consistently.

If Myers can’t trust a fourth pitch as a true separator from his harder stuff, his best path back to the big leagues may be as a reliever. His velocity could play up in shorter stints, and he could eschew his cutter in favor of a largely fastball-slider pairing. Role notwithstanding, he has a few boxes to check off to merit a return to the majors. At this moment, that day does not appear especially imminent.

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[Brian]

Keeping hitters off balance is key to being an above average pitcher. 

"Murphy wanted him to make fuller use of his five-pitch arsenal—particularly a changeup that held opponents to a .163 wOBA last year and induced whiffs on 42.9% of swings. The right-hander, whose changeup usage against lefties had dried up almost entirely from 19.2% last year to 3.4% before his demotion." 

[patrickgpe]

If there is no room for Logan, than there isn't for Tobias. Plus Murphy is clearly not a fan of his work. 

[izzi]

Perhaps a trade chip at the deadline.

[Guest]

If he could raise his era a run or two, and shrink three or four inches Murphy would see the gritty twinkle in his eyes again.

[Brock Beauchamp]

2 hours ago, BaseballEnjoyer said:

If he could raise his era a run or two, and shrink three or four inches Murphy would see the gritty twinkle in his eyes again.

Welcome to Brewer Fanatic!

[Brian]

Curt Hogg 6/16/25

@CyrtHogg

Nestor Cortes said yesterday’s bullpen (his third) went well. He threw 30 pitches without a second up-down. Next up will be another ‘pen with 2 up-downs, then a couple live BPs before going out on rehab.