Brewers Minor League Observations: Tyson Hardin Keeps Shoving, Remember Hedbert Perez?

[Spencer Michaelis]

Image courtesy of © Rick Scuteri-Imagn Images

We're back for another week of farm system observations. This week, we cover two pitchers from the 2024 draft, both outperforming expectations in their first full season. We also check in on a post-hype prospect from the COVID era who looks to have figured some things out at the plate, and who is probably still younger than you’d think.

All statistics are season-long unless otherwise noted
Tyson Hardin - RHP - Biloxi Shuckers: 74.2 IP, 2.17 ERA, 2.05 FIP, 26.4 K%, 3.7 BB%, 27.2 Whiff%
A 12th-round selection less than a year ago out of Mississippi State (where he was used exclusively as a reliever and posted a 3.22 ERA and walked 23 in 36 ⅓ innings), Hardin began the year in High-A as a starter. In 57 ⅓ innings, his 1.97 FIP was the best at the level among starting pitchers, and he has already been promoted to Double-A. I have been able to tune in for all three starts, and continue to come away impressed.

Hardin’s four-seam fastball is a plus pitch, due to the ultra-flat vertical approach angle at which he throws the pitch, coming from a low release height and generating more induced vertical break than you’d expect from the arm angle. He already sits in the 94-95 mph range, which is more than sufficient given the other traits the pitch possesses, but in college, he would likely sit a tick or two higher out of the bullpen. If he can ever sit in that range as a starter, there’s potential for the fastball to jump up closer to a plus-plus offering.

He also throws a cutter in the 87-90 MPH range that he is very comfortable throwing to either side of the plate and against either right- or left-handed hitters. The cutter gets more swing-and-miss than most, but the main goal of the pitch is still to avoid hard contact and get quick outs. Hardin does seem to morph the shape of the cutter, whether intentionally or not, as it can sometimes resemble a short slider. He threw the cutter quite a bit in his most recent outing, and it helped the four-seam play up even more than it does on its own.

Hardin’s best out-pitch, other than his fastball, is his low-80s sweeper. He uses the sweeper in two-strike counts to get chases away from right-handed hitters. It works especially well when it’s paired with a cutter that was on the outer half earlier in the at-bat. Like the cutter, he has no issue throwing the sweeper to batters on either side of the plate.

A changeup that sits in the mid-80s rounds out his repertoire. It flashes decent depth at times, but for the most part, it lags behind the other offerings. Getting more consistency with the changeup could go a long way, as he could use a pitch that moves away from left-handed hitters. Lefties have managed a .725 OPS against Hardin, compared to .522 for right-handed bats. 

 

Hardin’s combined walk rate of 3.7% between the two levels is tied for the second-lowest among all qualified pitchers above the complex level. For a guy who walked 13.9% of hitters in college last year, that number is hard to fathom. His Double-A performances to this point have been very impressive. This was a big jump for Hardin to make, and he hasn’t skipped a beat.

Hedbert Perez - OF - Wisconsin Timber Rattlers: 224 PA, 112 wRC+, 26.8 K%, 12.9 BB%, 9 HR
The talk of the prospect town in the winter of 2019, then-17-year-old Perez spent the 2020 COVID season at the Brewers' alternate training site, the youngest player in any organization’s 60-man player pool. He showed well and was assigned to the Arizona Complex League in 2021, having never played in the Dominican Summer League. After a hot start at the complex level, he quickly moved to Low-A. Unfortunately, things have not gone very well.

Perez struggled with swing decisions and the ability to make contact in his first season in Carolina, and that trend continued into 2023, as evidenced by his 77 wRC+ in 2022 and 76 in 2023. However, he was figuring things out in the summer of 2023, posting a 112 wRC+ with only a 22.6% strikeout rate from June 18th through July 18th. Unfortunately, Perez suffered a significant injury on July 18th and would proceed to miss nearly 13 months after that. He made his return on Aug. 13, 2024, which also marked his debut in High-A. After an up-and-down month to close out the season, he is back with the Timber Rattlers this year, and he’s shown some signs of putting himself back on the prospect radar.

Despite how long he’s been in the organization, Perez only turned 22 years old in April. Watching him at the plate, he has adopted a much more patient approach. This plays out in his numbers, as his swing rate of 45.3% is seven percentage points lower than any other season of his career, and around 10% lower than his first season in Low-A. Unsurprisingly, this has led to a career-high walk rate of 12.9%, surpassing his previous high of 8.6% in that injury-shortened 2023 season. His contact rate is also a career high.

The impressive part of his improved contact rate is that he is taking swings as big as ever. He shows major bat speed, and with that bat speed, he’s shown a lot of raw power, with exit velocities up to 113 MPH this season. He has had power binges throughout the season, and this past week was one of them, hitting three of his nine home runs in the past five games. Included in that stretch was a multi-homer game, with both traveling over 400 feet, including the first at 423.

While not a slow runner, Perez is not a big-time base stealer, either. He’s an average runner, with average instincts as well. The lack of top-tier athleticism is also noticeable on defense, where watching Perez in the outfield can be an adventure. He will make some extremely impressive plays, and follow them up with an inconceivable misplay in the same game. His arm is strong enough to play right field, and that’s where he’s spent all season in 2025, after previously splitting time between left and right. It appears that the lack of positional movement may be benefiting him somewhat, but the defense is still likely closer to being below average than above average.

If Perez is to jump back onto the prospect radar, his offense is going to do most of the heavy lifting. It’s a bat-first profile, and in 2025, he has shown some significant signs of improvement in a lot of key areas at the plate. Perez will be Rule 5 Draft-eligible this offseason. He won’t be selected in that draft, but the more interesting timeframe is when he becomes a minor-league free agent, which would come after the 2026 season. He will only be 23 at that time, so it will be interesting to see if he can force any interesting decisions with a strong finish to this year and an even better 2026.

Jayden Dubanewicz - RHP - Carolina Mudcats: 42.2 IP, 2.53 ERA, 3.74 FIP, 17.1 K%, 5.7 BB%, 12.7 Whiff% (Whiff% is Low-A only)
The Brewers selected Dubanewicz in the 16th round of last year’s draft and signed him away from a Florida commitment with a $665,000 signing bonus. He made his pro debut this year in the Arizona Complex League, where he posted a strong 2.66 ERA, with a 3.52 FIP, before being promoted to Low-A early in June. I’ve been able to watch all four of his Low-A outings now, and it’s been an interesting start to his time in full-season ball.

Dubanewicz has a 2.37 ERA through his first four outings, but his 4.01 FIP tells a different story. The main thing that jumps out is the strikeout rate of 9.3%. That would be the lowest strikeout rate for any qualified pitcher outside of the DSL. At the same time, his walk rate of 2.7% would be the second-best walk rate of any qualified pitcher outside the DSL. It’s a pitch-to-contact approach that, to this point, has worked very well, though one has to wonder if the success will keep up.

Armed with a pair of fastballs that sit in the low 90s and touch up to 94 MPH (both of which play up a little bit due to his above-average extension of around 6.7 feet), Dubanewicz uses his fastball as a way to get ahead of hitters and get early contact. When he does decide to go up with his four-seam variation, it can get some swing-and-miss at the top of the zone. The two-seam is more of a true two-seam shape than a sinker, as it has some carry on it rather than sink, but gets a decent amount of run. The four-seamer is the better pitch right now, but the two-seamer probably pairs better with the rest of his repertoire. 

He throws two different breaking balls, though they blend together at times. His slider and curveball have similar movement profiles, though he does take a little more velocity off the curve. The slider sits in the 81-83 MPH range, while the curve is in the upper 70s. Dubanewicz is comfortable throwing either of them in any count and commands them both very well. Neither has proven to be a great swing-and-miss pitch for him yet, though, which likely contributes to the extremely low strikeout rate mentioned earlier.

I would grade his changeup as his best pitch right now. He takes around 8-9 MPH off of his fastball and shows good fade with the pitch, and at times really good depth as well, though it flattens out at other times. This is a pitch he primarily uses against left-handed hitters currently, but I think he could mix it in a bit more often against righties as well. 

Dubanewicz has a slew of fringe-average offerings, but he’s a lanky teenager with a ton of projection left. He currently pounds the zone as well as anyone, and while that likely won’t be enough on its own, with continued growth in his “stuff”, the starting point of above-average to plus command gives him a pretty solid ceiling.

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That’s all I’ve got for this week; let us know what you think in the replies!

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[Wicki]

Is it crazy to say that hedbert has the highest potential of any OF bar Payne in the brewers minor league teams? We have a lot of defense fiat profiles like Lara, but not many with the power profile like Hedbert. Hoping he continues a strong season and maybe pushes for a call up to biloxi by the end of the season.

[wiguy94]

5 minutes ago, Wicki said:

Is it crazy to say that hedbert has the highest potential of any OF bar Payne in the brewers minor league teams? We have a lot of defense fiat profiles like Lara, but not many with the power profile like Hedbert. Hoping he continues a strong season and maybe pushes for a call up to biloxi by the end of the season.

Not counting DSL guys, I’d still say Lara has a higher ceiling than Hedbert. Lara’s ceiling is probably like a 110-115 wRC+ MLB hitter with gold glove level CF defense and great baserunning. That’s a very valuable player. 

[Joseph Zarr]

That Hedbert shoulder injury awhile back came as he was bordering on triggering a scorching run. It's a testament to where he is as a player that he is bouncing back to real relevance in such short order from his return. He could become a reliable corner outfielder if he could fine tune and shore up the lackadaisical moments. He has more than enough arm. He just has these inexplicable moments from time-to-time that leave me befuddled. 😅

[Wicki]

3 hours ago, wiguy94 said:

Not counting DSL guys, I’d still say Lara has a higher ceiling than Hedbert. Lara’s ceiling is probably like a 110-115 wRC+ MLB hitter with gold glove level CF defense and great baserunning. That’s a very valuable player. 

Fair enough! Hoping the brewers target a college OF who can move quickly through the system, as that is really the only weak area in our minor league system imo. Also this resurgence could make Hedbert a valuable trade chip potentially. 

[MattK]

Wondering if Pena or Adamczewski will be in "best OF in the system" conversation in a year? 

[jay87shot]

57 minutes ago, MattK said:

Wondering if Pena or Adamczewski will be in "best OF in the system" conversation in a year? 

I do think there will be one of those IF prospects that will move to the OF. Maybe for 2027 though it really depends on how fast they move and if Durbin and Ortiz become long term every day pieces.

[jay87shot]

Hardin has really been a mirror image of KC Hunt last year. Hopefully we can get Hint back on track and keep Hardin going. I do think that he is starting to jump all of the AA starters in terms of prospect status even though Wichrowski and Kuehner have been solid.

I am not as high on Hedbert as the rest of you. Outside of the power I just don't see his skills working out well. At 5'10", he packs a wallop but I doubt he gets more consistent. He isn't fast and is hitting .233 (career .229). I am not opposed to bringing him back next year but I just don't see him developing into anything more than a 4th OF (Jake Bauers minus 1st base ability).

I love our 2024 (and 23) HS picks. I think all of Dubanewicz, Renz, Dorchies, Tobias,Hayden Robinson, and Bjorn Johnson (probably forgetting someone) all are finding some consistency and doing a good job of setting themselves up for big offseason. If they can add a mph or two, sharpen up braking balls they all could be big prospect risers next year like Letson.

[Austin Tatious]

Honestly if Hardin ends up being some semblance of the next Woodruff, I won’t be shocked.  There are similarities in the progression, college background, arm, etc.  

Either way, I couldn’t possibly be happier with our insights and strategies with the draft.  

I am a long time poster and I used to be highly critical of the drafting process for a long stretch.  Now, it’s as good as it gets.  

Same thing with the international market and player development (labs, academies, etc).  When Stearns left, I was nervous we’d have some brain drain but I give Mark tremendous credit for building a sustainable infrastructure.    As an owner I think he’s learned a lot and I like how he deploys resources.  We’ve made a lot of changes the past 10-12 years compared to his early years.  In a good way.