Are the Brewers Lucky, or Are They Just an Extraordinary Team?

[Jake McKibbin]

Image courtesy of © Benny Sieu-Imagn Images

The Brewers bunch of "Average Joes" are on a franchise-altering tear. They've won 48 out of their last 64 games and lead the league in full-season record by five games. Having looked like potential trade deadline sellers in the middle of May, this is a remarkable turnaround—without any one, easy explanation.

They're not being carried by a triumvirate of Freddie Freeman, Mookie Betts and Shohei Ohtani, or any hitter who will even get down-ballot MVP votes this season. Yet, they've scored more runs than any other team but the Toronto Blue Jays in that 64-game stretch.

Simultaneously, no one on the Brewers staff is likely to get serious Cy Young votes (perhaps some down-ballot ones). Yet, since the start of the season (including blow-up outings from Elvin Rodriguez, Connor Thomas, Nestor Cortes and more), they're second in the NL for runs allowed, and one off the leadership.

It's miraculous that the Brewers have performed this way without outstanding seasons from their offensive stars, and without barrages of home runs. It defies all modern orthodoxy on how an offense should be constructed. Is it a lucky 64-game stretch? Is it even possible to be merely lucky for that length of time? Or have the Brewers cracked baseball's code?

We've heard the "win today" mantra preached by Pat Murphy since he became the manager, and it's a message the Brewers are really taking to heart. They've created a team thriving on the belief that they are the best team in baseball, despite the plucky underdog tag that the rest of baseball appears to have branded them with. They believe they're capable of winning any game in any situation, and that belief has fueled a historic run.

Where Are All These Runs Coming From?
It's an offense defined by plate discipline, and in that comes their consistency. Home run binges can come and go, but consistent, high-quality plate appearances are more controllable for the hitter. That brings about several advantages. Since May 18, the Brewers have (per FanGraphs):

• The lowest chase rate in baseball
• Fifth-best walk rate
• Fourth-lowest strikeout rate
• Second-best wRC+
• Second-best OPS
• Second-best on-base percentage

All of these, for a team that propels itself with elite pitching, gives an opportunity for consistent offensive pressure and production. They get on base, put the ball in play, and strangle your offense when they take a lead.

There's been a lot of talk about the Brewers scrappy nature on the offensive side of the ball, but there hasn't been nearly enough praise for the pitching performances that have been even better. It's been one dominant start after another, but two players in particular have taken the Brewers to a whole new height.

Why is No One Lauding This Rotation as the Key Ingredient in Their Success?
Brandon Woodruff's stuff has not been at his pre-injury levels, with his fastballs sitting a few ticks down from where he's historically been. It appears to be trending upward from game to game, and perhaps that dearth of velocity is overshadowing just how dominant he's been. Jacob Misiorowski made the All-Star Game after just five starts, showing some of the most electric raw stuff in all of baseball and having somehow found genuine command of his arsenal.

This organization has a reputation for taking the Jose Quintana types of this world and making them play up with the defense behind them. They did it with Chad Patrick earlier in the season, and both Quintana and Quinn Priester are the beneficiaries of that defense. What no one is talking about is how utterly overpowering this rotation has become since Woodruff and Misiorowski joined the pitching staff. Again, using that date of May 18, the Brewers have:

• The best ERA in baseball
• The second-best strikeout rate in baseball
• The second-best Fielder Independent Pitching (FIP) in baseball

Ummm... and the Defense?
Yes, the Brewers have a phenomenal defensive unit, ranking second-best in Outs Above Average (OAA) and third-best for Fielding Run Value (FRV), but it's not the only reason for their success as a defensive unit anymore. They're electric when called upon, but with the hydra of Woodruff, Misiorowski and Freddy Peralta, good luck even putting the ball in play.

In summation, much has been made of what statistics the Brewers are putting up, but perhaps not enough has been done to look into how they're putting those numbers out. They have an offensive formula that has created one of the most consistent offenses in baseball since mid-May, a pitching staff with the most overpowering stuff in all of baseball, and a defensive unit that ranks top-five over that span in two of the three main fielding metrics.

One overlooked portion of "winning the small margins" is how the Brewers, after a focus point in the offseason, have worked with their pitchers and William Contreras to limit the running game. They've caught 38% of would-be base stealers, and have only seen 61 attempts against them this season. Extra bases don't come cheaply against this team. It's one example of a host of small details that allow the Brewers to consistently win on the margins.

The wider conversation still appears to be on the home run potency of the Brewers and how that will feature in the playoffs. They've proved of late that their model works. Perhaps we should all be revelling in this iteration of Brewers baseball, in what's turned out to be quite the summer of passion and entertainment.

Some moments are difficult to replicate over a larger sample size, and there certainly have been some smiles from Lady Luck. The execution of Blake Perkins's throw and the tag from Contreras were faultless on Friday evening, but if Starling Marte had half a foot more as a lead from second base, he would have scored. It was a bang-bang play that could have gone either way. Contreras crushed a ball to right field on Saturday that was unfortunate to register an out, but the pitch clock reprieve gave him a second chance and he took full advantage.

Still, when you do so many things right on the baseball field (commanding outlier raw stuff on the mound, controlling the running game, elite outfield coverage defensively and consistently putting the ball in play), you put yourself in a position to take advantage of opportunities that come along. The Brewers are the only team since May 18 to rank in the top 5 of Weighted Runs Created (wRC+), Earned Run Average (ERA), Fielder Independent Pitching (FIP) and Outs Above Average (OAA), to show just how well-rounded this team truly is.

Solo shots don't do permanent damage (as the Mets found out, to their chagrin, this weekend). Instead, with constant pressure on the base paths, at the plate, defensively, and with this upside of three potential aces in the rotation, the Brewers have the means to win in a variety of different ways, and that allows them to avoid some of the long slumps in the ups and downs of a baseball season. There is a skill in capitalizing on big moments in games; it's a mental fortification not everyone possesses. The Brewers appear to have it in abundance, even if it won't always pay off to the extent it did in the Mets series. 

With such an incredible starting rotation and a shutdown bullpen (I haven't even talked about the exploits of Abner Uribe and Trevor Megill), the Brewers don't need to score truckloads of runs to win. It just so happens they're revelling in the big moments and doing so, anyway. While some regression may be expected (such winning runs are historically difficult to maintain), make no mistake about it: this Milwaukee Brewers team is the best team in baseball, regardless of luck. They may have had some fortune at times, but their skillset has allowed them to maximize that fortune.

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[Team Canada]

1 hour ago, Jake McKibbin said:

The execution of Blake Perkins's throw and the tag from Contreras were faultless on Friday evening, but if Starling Marte had half a foot more as a lead from second base, he would have scored. It was a bang-bang play that could have gone either way.

Something I didn't catch on the first replay but marveled at when commentators called it out was how nonchalant Contreras was on that play up until the very moment he caught the ball. Marte had no inkling there was even a throw coming until he catches the ball and tags him.
Just another example of very little things all coming together. Execution matters, and when you're executing on all cylinders, it's hard to beat.

[James Zumstein]

We're also the best baserunning team according to Statcast, yet another method of winning at the margins.

[Snoebird]

5 hours ago, James Zumstein said:

We're also the best baserunning team according to Statcast, yet another method of winning at the margins.

Because the Brewers don't sign players to second contracts, they're younger than most teams yet experienced and drilled to precision. But those young legs are being put to maximum use via Murphyball, and that's remindful of the 2014-15 Kansas City Royals. The most memorable quote from that Royals championship season came from Jarrod Dyson: "That's what speed do."

[WAN2]

Better being lucky than good.  

[Brian]

22 hours ago, Jake McKibbin said:

The execution of Blake Perkins's throw and the tag from Contreras were faultless on Friday evening, but if Starling Marte had half a foot more as a lead from second base, he would have scored.

If he had a half a foot more he might have got picked off at second also.