The Brewers' Best-Hitting Prospect Isn't Who You Think

[Steven]

Image courtesy of © Eric Hartline-Imagn Images

It's widely agreed that the Milwaukee Brewers have the best farm system in baseball right now. When you have as many high-profile prospects as the Brewers do, you’re bound to have some players getting overshadowed. 

If you're a frequent reader of Brewer Fanatic, you may know him, but many have yet to become acquainted with Brewers farmhand and second baseman Josh Adamczewski. That may be because he’s the 13th-ranked Brewers prospect on MLB Pipeline, and he wasn’t on any sites’ radars until this season. 

Don’t get me wrong, it’s understandable that the 20-year-old was unranked in 2024, as he was a 15th-round high-school draft pick from the year before—who had zero hits in just seven at-bats in 2023. Since then, however, the lefty has gone 124-for-363 (.342) across Rookie ball, Low-A, and now High-A after his recent promotion. In 455 career plate appearances, Adamczewski has 33 doubles, 5 triples, and 8 home runs, with a .335/.447/.516 line.

Since the start of 2024, Adamczewski owns the third-highest batting average in the minor leagues (min. 400 PA). For context, that’s third out of 1,518 players across all levels of the minors. Further, as of today, he is tops overall (out of that same field of 1,518) in OBP, and second in wRC+ at 169. 

Like most lefties, Adamczewski appears to be more comfortable hitting right-handed pitching. Since the start of 2024, against righties, the lefty has an OPS north of 1.000, with nearly as many walks (60) as total strikeouts (64). To be clear, Adamczewski is also hitting lefties in a (very) small sample this year, slashing .349/.417/.512 in just 48 trips, albeit with a much more typical 12 punchouts and just four walks.

It likely hasn’t been the youngster’s dream season, however, as he was sidelined for two months with a back injury, and he rehabbed in rookie ball in early July. Upon his mid-July return to Low-A, Adamczewski slashed .359/.468/.603 across 95 PA, with more walks (15) than strikeouts (12). This brought his Low-A OPS to 1.027 on the year, in a league with an average OPS of .664.

Naturally, Adamczewski was promoted at that point, heading to High-A Wisconsin just last week. There, he rejoined his similarly promoted (but more acclaimed) infield teammates, Luis Pena and Jesus Made. 

But why is Adamczewski so unheralded, versus those peers? For starters, it’s important to remember that the 15th-rounder had fewer than 200 PA after 2024. Additionally, he is viewed as a below-average defender at second base, the only defensive position he has manned thus far in his professional career.

Still, in their writeup on the top 45 Brewers Prospects for 2025, Eric Longenhagen and James Fegan touted Adamczewski's exit velocity and bat speed, and called an "Eric Thames sort of offensive production" a “reasonable expectation" for Adamczewski. To save you a Google, Thames finished his career with a slash line of .241/.325/.467, with a 108 OPS+. That type of production, if he can stick at the keystone, would likely keep Adamczewski in the majors for a long time.

If you're curious how a hitter with a .335 career batting average might be projected to hit .240 in the majors, Adamczewski does have an almost unbelievably high career batting average on balls in play or BABIP, at .413. Keeping in mind that Adamczewski still has fewer than 500 career PA, his BABIP should be expected to drop significantly as his career continues. After all, over the last 5 seasons, just the top 7% of hitters over that time even have a BABIP north of .330. 

Adamczewski additionally has around a 73% contact rate on swings in 2025, which is not quite to the level of elite contact you would expect from a player who may hit for a high average all the way up to the top flight. At the same time, the young lefty is just 20 years old, and can be expected to tap into more power as he grows. In fact, he has already tweaked his approach as a pro, with MLB.com reporting that for 2025, Adamczewski "lowered his hands in his stance some, allowing him to meet the ball on plane more easily." 

This has led to a huge drop in ground ball rate for the lefty, down to around 40% from nearly 52% last year. While the usual small sample size warnings apply, that is a massive shift in batted-ball profile, all while maintaining one of the highest averages in pro baseball.

And while no prospect is a sure thing, it’s fair to expect Adamczewski's under-the-radar status to shatter soon. He's too talented a hitter not to talk about.

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All stats as of Aug. 25, 2025.

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[MattK]

About time to have an Adamczewski article .....  :-)

[sveumrules]

Adamczewsski has Luke Adams beat on wRC+ over the last two years (& alphabetically for whatever that is or isn't worth in tie breaker scenarios), but Luke has been raking for an extra year with his 148 wRC+ since 2023 tied with Xavier Isaac for the best mark in all of MiLB (min. 1000 PA) over the last three years. 

Not bad having two of the better hitters statistically in MiLB over the last couple two tree years and the system is so deep that they are both in the fringe Top Ten-ish sort of range.

[Joseph Zarr]

47 minutes ago, MattK said:

About time to have an Adamczewski article .....  :-)

Well, in fairness, if you compiled the number of times I've 'pounded my fist' for Josh since, well honestly, his ACL days...you'd likely have an encyclopedic volume.

AND, like Areinamo before he was traded (who I politely opined had a different ability bat-to-ball en lieu of his unorthodox approach) I'll counter the defensive narrative, in this case, with Josh. We all know (well we all should know) the bat has elite traits. Remember, before this season even really got underway Del Chiaro went on record that the Brewers felt Josh was the best bat on Carolina's stacked roster. Yea, even with Peña and Made. His  defense has been more than adequate at 2B this year. Is it gold glove caliber? Very likely no. Is it below average? Absolutely not. It's dependable. He makes the plays he should make and he occasionally makes the plays you don't think he will. The only concerns I have for Josh as a prospect are not directly touched on in this article: why haven't the Brewers tried him defensively anywhere else? The Brewers can't tell me with a straight face they are willing to work with plodding Tristen Lutz (sorry, Tristen I am casting strays!) and Luis Castillo on the corner grass - heck even give old friend 2B Felix Valerio opportunities in LF - while suddenly using Josh as a DH-only High-A hitter. Heck, they're using C Blayberg Diaz at first base. They used 1B/DH Tayden Hall on the LF grass last night. By my eyes, they continue to drop the ball here. When you have a bat and an approach as advanced as Adamczewski's, they would be wise to start exploring avenues beyond 2B/DH. There ultimately may be none. But, imho, they need to see it in action first. It's why, given the missed time over the past two seasons, I've been hoping for an AFL opportunity this fall. He'll likely be forced into other positions via prospect and positional backlog. I mean, if we were looking at an Ethan Murray level defender, with Josh's bat, we'd be looking at a Top 100 prospect already. 

[Joseph Zarr]

After watching this Brewers Minor League second half, I think it's very fair to say (especially given the impact of system-wide injuries and their unknown impacts moving forward) the idea they are the best system in baseball is overinflated.  I personally 'believe' they are extremely top-heavy with premium young talent. This is awesome. But, we've witnessed a large number of regressions and recurring injury woes. The depth of the system is very thin and I think the second half records speak to this. I mean we've witnessed a loss of like 30 games on the 45 over .500 cumulative high we saw earlier in the season. Since that time, the system as a whole has lost a lot. That has to mean something in the universe of prospect group think.

[CheezWizHed]

1 hour ago, Joseph Zarr said:

After watching this Brewers Minor League second half, I think it's very fair to say (especially given the impact of system-wide injuries and their unknown impacts moving forward) the idea they are the best system in baseball is overinflated.  I personally 'believe' they are extremely top-heavy with premium young talent. This is awesome. But, we've witnessed a large number of regressions and recurring injury woes. The depth of the system is very thin and I think the second half records speak to this. I mean we've witnessed a loss of like 30 games on the 45 over .500 cumulative high we saw earlier in the season. Since that time, the system as a whole has lost a lot. That has to mean something in the universe of prospect group think.

Joe throwing shade at our minor league system? @Joseph Zarr change your password! I think you've been hacked!

[Joseph Zarr]

18 minutes ago, CheezWizHed said:

Joe throwing shade at our minor league system? @Joseph Zarr change your password! I think you've been hacked!

It's not shade. It's just honest feedback. The system as a whole has suffered many a significant impactful injury. AND, man, we've lost a lot of games in the second half. Lots of regression. Hitting slumps. Pitching slumps. Sloppy defense. It hasn't been all that pretty. But, as always, within that trend there is always positive stuff happening. Always. And, really, we live and die by that as Brewers fans. I absolutely support the true youth movement. It's a very worthwhile commitment for the Brewers limited payroll. There is very very much a youth playing a couple Levels up challenge happening impacting this. And, given the Brewers innate ability and proclivity to find repeated diamonds in the Minor League FA and Rule 5 portions of talent acquisition, I am not a single ounce concerned by my my opinions.😅

[CheezWizHed]

49 minutes ago, Joseph Zarr said:

It's not shade. It's just honest feedback. The system as a whole has suffered many a significant impactful injury. AND, man, we've lost a lot of games in the second half. Lots of regression. Hitting slumps. Pitching slumps. Sloppy defense. It hasn't been all that pretty. But, as always, within that trend there is always positive stuff happening. Always. And, really, we live and die by that as Brewers fans. I absolutely support the true youth movement. It's a very worthwhile commitment for the Brewers limited payroll. There is very very much a youth playing a couple Levels up challenge happening impacting this. And, given the Brewers innate ability and proclivity to find repeated diamonds in the Minor League FA and Rule 5 portions of talent acquisition, I am not a single ounce concerned by my my opinions.😅

You are so consistently positive, it is shocking to see you do the opposite...even on rare occasions. 😉

[Joseph Zarr]

19 minutes ago, CheezWizHed said:

You are so consistently positive, it is shocking to see you do the opposite...even on rare occasions. 😉

I think maybe that T-Rats ninth inning (defensively - seeing Fischer access that power we all know with his first solo Johnson in the bottom half was awesome. He's been playing generally an extremely positively impactful brand if baseball) last night was a little bit of the straw that broke the camel's back for me? It was absolutely brutal. Don't do yourself a favor and go back to watch. I will never get that time back. BF Community service and all. 😅

[Steven]

4 hours ago, Joseph Zarr said:

why haven't the Brewers tried him defensively anywhere else? The Brewers can't tell me with a straight face they are willing to work with plodding Tristen Lutz (sorry, Tristen I am casting strays!) and Luis Castillo on the corner grass - heck even give old friend 2B Felix Valerio opportunities in LF - while suddenly using Josh as a DH-only High-A hitter. Heck, they're using C Blayberg Diaz at first base. They used 1B/DH Tayden Hall on the LF grass last night. By my eyes, they continue to drop the ball here.

It's fair to question this, for sure. There are so many factors here, including sharing infields with Made & Pena. However, like you pointed out, that doesn't explain why he can't get reps at 1B or LF. 

I would speculate that this is heavily related to missing 2 months with a back injury. In 24 games before he hit the IL, he DH'd just twice, both of those within 5 games of going on the IL. Since returning, he has DH'd 15 times, including 7 out of his last 11 games. At the very least, there's a correlation there.

I would guess that they want to give him as many swings this season as possible, and that he is either dealing with aches & pains or they want to avoid that possibility at all costs. If that's correct, this would then not be a very good time to sprinkle in practice at new positions.

[Joseph Zarr]

1 hour ago, Steven said:

It's fair to question this, for sure. There are so many factors here, including sharing infields with Made & Pena. However, like you pointed out, that doesn't explain why he can't get reps at 1B or LF. 

I would speculate that this is heavily related to missing 2 months with a back injury. In 24 games before he hit the IL, he DH'd just twice, both of those within 5 games of going on the IL. Since returning, he has DH'd 15 times, including 7 out of his last 11 games. At the very least, there's a correlation there.

I would guess that they want to give him as many swings this season as possible, and that he is either dealing with aches & pains or they want to avoid that possibility at all costs. If that's correct, this would then not be a very good time to sprinkle in practice at new positions.

It could be given the strange nature of his lower back injury. I would casually (and in a friendly way, mind you) opine they are prioritizing giving those reps to Made and Peña. Before he was promoted from Carolina, he returned from the ACL on July 18th. Made and Peña were still playing Mudcats games through August 2nd. In that timeframe, Josh played 7 games at 2B to 5 games at DH. After they left? He played 10 more games without that dynamic duo. Of those 10 games, he played 7 as the primary 2B and 3 as the DH - including one as the DH in a Fayetteville double-header on the 13th. I can tell you, because I do actually know these things, by the time he left Carolina his body was in good standing. There hadn't been any known relapses. He has DH'd so many times because he has solely DH'd since arriving in Appleton. And, this very much simply appears to be a "Keep his bat in the line up. Give the reps to Made and Peña." That's all fine and dandy to an extent. My main overarching point here, and stated above, is Peña specifically isn't a good enough defender to solely stash Josh as the DH. If we're keeping him there, for the time being or into the future, they really 'should' continue to give him reps in the rotation. And, this all being said, and as you allude to above him staying healthy is very much at the organizational forefront and it should be. My contentions are really just nagging advocating contentions and nothing more. I know, knowing the player, he will just put his head down and do his work with a great attitude and 100% effort regardless. Adamczewski is anything but a head case. He is the consummate team player. 

[MattK]

16 hours ago, Steven said:

It's fair to question this, for sure. There are so many factors here, including sharing infields with Made & Pena. However, like you pointed out, that doesn't explain why he can't get reps at 1B or LF. 

I would speculate that this is heavily related to missing 2 months with a back injury. In 24 games before he hit the IL, he DH'd just twice, both of those within 5 games of going on the IL. Since returning, he has DH'd 15 times, including 7 out of his last 11 games. At the very least, there's a correlation there.

I would guess that they want to give him as many swings this season as possible, and that he is either dealing with aches & pains or they want to avoid that possibility at all costs. If that's correct, this would then not be a very good time to sprinkle in practice at new positions.

It is kinda funny.  Fangraphs, in their yearly "prospects" articles for the Crew, has him in LF.  There, it has been decided.  That seemed reasonable to me, though.  Although, some of my perspective is also due to his "classmates" more likely to stay on the grass than he.