If Brewers Keep Playing Matchups with Caleb Durbin, Could Isaac Collins See More Time at Third Base?

[Jack Stern]

Image courtesy of © Charles LeClaire-Imagn Images

Pat Murphy has already explained—multiple times—why the Brewers gave Anthony Seigler starts at third base over Caleb Durbin, who has posted a solid 102 wRC+ with strong defense as a rookie. They like Seigler's swing decisions and penchant for hitting line drives, and they don't believe his results reflect the quality of his plate appearances.

Liking Seigler is only half the equation, though. He wouldn't have gotten those starts had the Brewers not felt Durbin profiled poorly in certain right-on-right matchups. Murphy has been more coy when asked about that half of the decision-making.

Durbin has a clear platoon split, posting a 119 wRC+ against left-handers compared to a 97 wRC+ against righties. That's still capable production against same-handed pitchers, though. Furthermore, the third base situation has not been a strict platoon. Since Seigler's debut on July 2, Durbin has started there in 26 of the Brewers' 42 games against a right-handed starter, while Seigler started at third in 16, plus a start as the DH.

Rather than shielding Durbin from all right-handed pitchers, the Brewers have mostly withheld him from facing ones with low arm slots. Seigler started over him against these pitchers:

Game	Pitcher	Arm Angle
7/02 @ NYM	Clay Holmes	43.6
7/02 @ NYM	Huascar Brazobán	36.2
7/13 vs. WSN	Jake Irvin	27.0
7/21 @ SEA	George Kirby	29.3
7/23 @ SEA	Luis Castillo	14.9
7/29 vs. CHC	Colin Rea	30.5
8/02 @ WSN	Jake Irvin	27.0
8/03 @ WSN	Brad Lord	19.8
8/04 @ ATL	Erick Fedde	35.1
8/06 @ ATL	Spencer Strider	42.0
8/09 vs. NYM	Reed Garrett	33.9
8/13 vs. PIT	Mitch Keller	37.9
8/20 @ CHC	Colin Rea	30.5
8/23 vs SFG	Logan Webb	22.2
8/26 vs. ARI	Brandon Pfaadt	27.1
9/03 vs. PHI	Aaron Nola	19.7

Fourteen of those 16 right-handers have an average arm angle lower than 40 degrees. According to Baseball Savant, Durbin has slashed .211/.308/.325 against right-handed pitches from those arm angles. Instead, he's started mostly against righties with arm angles of 40° or higher, against whom he's hitting .251/.327/.382. Since Seigler's debut, the right-handed starters he's faced have had an average arm angle of 28°. In Durbin's starts, it's been 42°.

Seigler is likely to return to Triple-A as the corresponding move for Rhys Hoskins's return on Tuesday afternoon, which could mean more opportunities for Durbin against low-slot righties. It seemed that way when he started against Johan Oviedo (26° arm angle) and Mitch Keller (38°) in Pittsburgh. However, Murphy previewed a new wrinkle at third base on Monday night, hitting Isaac Collins for Durbin against Jacob Webb (34°) in the eighth inning in Texas. Collins, a former minor-league utility man who has played almost exclusively in the outfield in the majors, finished the game at third.

Collins only played 13 games at the hot corner in the minors. Before Monday, his big-league experience consisted of one-third of an inning in a walk-off loss in St. Louis in April. He's continued doing pregame infield work, though, and Murphy said last month that the club had discussed the possibility of playing him more on the dirt moving forward.

More time at third base would also keep Collins in the lineup regularly after Hoskins's return. To open the DH spot to get Hoskins and Andrew Vaughn in the same lineup, Christian Yelich will likely spend more time in left field down the stretch. While the Brewers cannot go on cruise control, their 7.5-game lead for a first-round postseason bye gives them some wiggle room to test new alignments ahead of October.

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[MattK]

They certainly are thinking and exploring ideas with the everyday players.  It does not feel that way as much with the pitching staff, but that is likely just the "feeling".

Thanks Jack!

[Team Canada]

That arm slot piece is really interesting. Yet another sign that when folks complain about something there's likely real thought behind it.

[bensheeps]

I love this analysis!

Does this mean we could see Isaac Collins at the hot corner on Wednesday vs. Merrill Kelly (arm angle = 24degrees)?