How William Contreras's Second Season of Arbitration Differs From His First

[Jack Stern]

Image courtesy of © Benny Sieu-Imagn Images

For the second year in a row, the Brewers exchanged salary figures with William Contreras, rather than agreeing to a new contract ahead of baseball's filing deadline for arbitration-eligible players. It's been unsurprising both times. Contreras is the closest of Milwaukee's position players to a true star, which means he's looked to push the limits of how much money he can earn in a system based on precedent.

As of this writing, the two camps are reportedly likely to go to a hearing to determine Contreras's 2026 salary. Because a team must argue against the player to win its case, there is always a risk of souring the relationship between the two.

The Brewers and Contreras avoided that fate last year by agreeing to a one-year deal with a club option for 2026 at the end of January. Like most teams, the Brewers maintain an informal policy that proscribes agreeing to one-year deals after exchanging figures, so the club option was an escape hatch that allowed both sides to dodge the hearing but Milwaukee to claim that they had adhered to their policy. The tradeoff was that Contreras's 2025 salary was higher than the precedent for first-year arbitration catchers of his caliber, but depending on how well he played, the club could either exercise or decline the option to keep him from setting a new baseline the following year.

While the sides could again reach a similar arrangement, there was greater incentive then for the Brewers to maintain a positive relationship with their starting catcher. It may be different this time, as history suggests that Contreras is nearing his final chapter in Milwaukee.

Signing Contreras to a market-value extension would be an unusually risky investment for the club, which would be better off acquiring or developing another catcher entering his prime. In that case, they should entertain trading him next winter, before he hits free agency. A hearing would strain the relationship for one season, with little impact on his future with the team.

Furthermore, of the two parties, the Brewers appear better positioned to win a potential hearing. Contreras filed at $9.9 million, which would set a new record for a catcher in his second year of arbitration, while the Brewers filed at $8.55 million, the current record set by Will Smith in 2024. (As a reminder, it doesn't matter that even $9.9 million would be a bargain for Contreras, whose free-agent value in 2025 was estimated at $29.2 million by FanGraphs. Arbitration is an entirely different system of player compensation in which salary increases are determined based on past raises given to similar players.)

The burden will be on Contreras's camp to persuade a panel of arbitrators that he has been more valuable than Smith was at the same point in his career. Statistically, it's not a particularly convincing case. Smith was a slightly better hitter, and Contreras's edge in games played is mainly due to Smith's second season being the pandemic-shortened 2020 campaign.

Player	Team Games	Player Games	HR	OPS	wRC+	fWAR
Contreras (2020-2025)	870	599	85	.805	123	16.9
Smith (2019-2023)	708	484	91	.840	128	15.7

On the surface, the Brewers and Contreras are in the same situation as last winter: he wants to raise the bar for catcher salaries, the Brewers would rather maintain the status quo, and the right contract can satisfy both sides. The context is different this time, though. Everyone involved should prepare for a more contentious process—and yes, that's likely to be the first in a series of events blazing his trail out of town.

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[MattK]

Ugh.  Make a lot of sense, but also a sad thing. 

[eddiemathews]

This is a mistake by the Brewers. William is more than numbers. I know that baseball is fully based on statistical analysis, but someone that plays with the passion that Contreras does, plays hurt like he does, is involved in 95% of every defensive play in the team's season, and contributes in a huge way to the success of the pitching staff needs recognition beyond just the hitting stats that Jack has noted. 

[sveumrules]

19 minutes ago, eddiemathews said:

This is a mistake by the Brewers.

The Brewers primary allegiance here is with the other 29 teams in doing their best to ensure that Arby's salaries grow as slowly as possible. By refusing to meet somewhere between the two figures William is hoping to do the opposite on behalf of future catchers.

The Brewers already offered him a record tying amount for his position and service time, any accepted compromise above that number by Contreras would have constituted a new record.

Now who knows the specifics, maybe the Brewers were only willing to go up to say $9M on a pre-hearing agreement and clearly William and his agent think his performance to date is worth closer to $10M based on the established precedents of the Arby's system.

Hard for me to say it's a mistake by either side without knowing those specifics. If say Contreras and his camp weren't willing to go below $9.5M, that's pushing the line up pretty aggressively over the top previously established comp.

No doubt, Contreras is worth three times that in a holistic sense, but now if Quero and/or Dinges hit down the line that number will be pushed even higher for them by the other catchers that reach Arby's in the interim.

As a draft and develop team the Brewers are probably extra motivated to keep those Arby's figures from growing too fast also since pre-FA players are the lifeblood of the organization.

[David Crawford]

While I understand the Brewers intend to manage this in a big picture sense, the fact is that we have William for one more year and we would sacrifice or strain that relationship over the next year.  Offer him $9.5M, you will have a happy catcher and avoid this process.  I remember how upset when Devin went through the critiquing during the hearing.  Sure, these guys are millionaires and you likely win this hearing but you send a message to future players while doing so...  William's value is so much more than behind the plate or at the plate.  His attitude and conviction to battle daily are examples for young players in our organization (especially Latin American).  With the exception that he doesn't always run out ground balls to first base.  That drives me nuts.  

[eddiemathews]

2 hours ago, sveumrules said:

The Brewers primary allegiance here is with the other 29 teams in doing their best to ensure that Arby's salaries grow as slowly as possible. By refusing to meet somewhere between the two figures William is hoping to do the opposite on behalf of future catchers.

The Brewers already offered him a record tying amount for his position and service time, any accepted compromise above that number by Contreras would have constituted a new record.

Now who knows the specifics, maybe the Brewers were only willing to go up to say $9M on a pre-hearing agreement and clearly William and his agent think his performance to date is worth closer to $10M based on the established precedents of the Arby's system.

Hard for me to say it's a mistake by either side without knowing those specifics. If say Contreras and his camp weren't willing to go below $9.5M, that's pushing the line up pretty aggressively over the top previously established comp.

No doubt, Contreras is worth three times that in a holistic sense, but now if Quero and/or Dinges hit down the line that number will be pushed even higher for them by the other catchers that reach Arby's in the interim.

As a draft and develop team the Brewers are probably extra motivated to keep those Arby's figures from growing too fast also since pre-FA players are the lifeblood of the organization.

I could care less about helping MLB owners collude on arbitration salaries. The Brewers are extremely unlikely to ever have to worry about precedents set for second ARB year catchers at the top of the scale. Do what helps the Brewers field their best shot in 2026.

[Turning2]

6 hours ago, eddiemathews said:

This is a mistake by the Brewers. William is more than numbers. I know that baseball is fully based on statistical analysis, but someone that plays with the passion that Contreras does, plays hurt like he does, is involved in 95% of every defensive play in the team's season, and contributes in a huge way to the success of the pitching staff needs recognition beyond just the hitting stats that Jack has noted. 

Agree 100%. That's the problem with this obsessive love affair that so many have with metrics. They can't measure heart, attitude, etc.