The Pirates Tested Garrett Mitchell's Swing to the Extreme. Will Other Teams Follow Suit?

[Jack Stern]

Image courtesy of © Mark Hoffman/Milwaukee Journal Sentinel / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

At times, pitchers have appeared aware of the hole in Garrett Mitchell's swing. Knowing his struggles against high fastballs and his excellence against breaking pitches around the bottom of the zone, they've consistently thrown him more hard pitches and fewer spinning ones than the average hitter. Right-handers have tried to beat him with the north-south game, pairing high fastballs with changeups below the zone.

For the most part, though, opponents have yet to match the extreme nature of Mitchell's swing with a commensurate extremity of approach. In fact, many pitchers this year have dialed things back to a more standard mix. It's part of the reason why Mitchell has posted a career 116 wRC+ despite a 34.5% strikeout rate, including a 126 wRC+ (with a 37.9% strikeout rate) to begin the 2026 season. He still gets enough low fastballs and mistake breaking balls, which he obliterates thanks to his elite strength and bat speed.

Mitchell has been pitched more like a normal hitter this year, but he's anything but that. Normal hitters have weaknesses, and many of them have one at the top of the zone, but Mitchell's bat is nearly guaranteed to miss anything elevated. For his career, he has put the ball in play on just 9.5% of swings against fastballs in or above the upper third of the zone (the league average during that span is 27.3%, nearly three times higher). He's whiffed on 54% of those swings and managed just four hits in 76 at-bats, a .053 batting average.

With such a low success rate, there's an argument for throwing traditional pitch sequencing out the window, and that there's no need to show Mitchell anything but high fastballs until he proves he can touch them. Repeatedly executing that pitch is easier said than done, though, especially with the knowledge that the moment a pitcher misses below the letters, Mitchell will make them pay. That, along with disjointed playing time throughout his injury-riddled career, may be why no team had attempted such an approach. As Matt Trueblood laid out last week, a lower top line of the strike zone has also made it harder for pitchers to put the ball in places that force Mitchell to lean into his own weaknesses. Throwing it where he can't handle it often means throwing it where he can afford to lay off it and get ahead in the count, under the new, ABS-tailored zone.

That changed over the weekend, when the Pittsburgh Pirates came to Milwaukee and peppered Mitchell with an onslaught of high fastballs. In three games, 37 of the 44 pitches he saw were fastballs, and 24—a whopping 54.5% of all pitches and nearly two-thirds of the heaters—were high.

The approach worked. Mitchell pieced up a couple of mistake pitches, hitting a 108-mph lineout and a 100-mph double on fastballs around his belt line, but he went just 1-for-10 in the series, with three strikeouts.

If there was a silver lining, it's that two of those strikeouts came against Paul Skenes in the series opener. As the weekend progressed, Mitchell began fouling off most of those high fastballs, instead of missing them entirely.

That's an expected improvement after seeing the same pitch so many times, but Mitchell still looked thoroughly overmatched, swinging late and underneath those balls to softly clip them foul. Even knowing with near certainty that those high fastballs were coming, he still put those pitches in play on just two of 14 swings (14.3%) and whiffed on 35.7% of them. Here are all of those swings compiled on video:

While most teams may not execute elevated fastballs as consistently as the Pirates did, their success could embolden more pitchers to take that extreme approach against Mitchell. Earlier in the week, the Detroit Tigers threw him high heaters 34.8% of the time. He tripled off one of those pitches but whiffed on 71.4% of swings against them, going 2-for-9 in the series.

By being selective and capitalizing on pitches in his hot zones, Mitchell has produced despite having one of the sport's most extreme cold zones. To his credit, he has also spent significant time trying to close that hole in his swing path. None of that work has yielded improvement, though, and teams could start targeting that weakness more aggressively. In his fifth season, Mitchell may finally be staring down the ultimate test of whether his swing path will work against big-league pitching.

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[jay87shot]

Other teams will be testing that out for sure. With the current analytics it doesn't take long for teams to catch on, hopefully Mitchell has been around the block enough to adjust. I am sure our analytic team has made him aware and he is working on it. Mitchell has been a bit of an anamoly, he is striking out way way to much however he is walking a bunch and his 19 rbi's has been extremely important. I think there is a lot to worry about as mentioned in the article but really there is something to worry about in all of our batters if you dig deep enough. 

[BarremlensTSSC]

Great stuff as usual from Mr. Stern

[Jim French Stepstool]

As @jay87shotpointed out, he's walking some, and that helps a little AFA living with the Ks is concerned. I just hope he stays healthy. Finally getting some extended playing time goes a long way towards finding out exactly to what extent he can fix the issue. It would be great if he could get the K rate down to a more manageable level. Lotsa infield hits in those legs.