Some Fun with Splits on an Off Day

[sveumrules]

Going back to Matt Arnold's first year at the helm in 2023 thru the end of last year MLB as a whole hit for a 96 wRC+ with the bases empty and a 104 wRC+ with runners in scoring position for an eight point gap over those three seasons. The Brewers themselves during that time came in at a 95 wRC+ with the bases empty (18th) and a 116 wRC+ with RISP (3rd) for a 21 point gap which tied with the Nationals (85 to 106 wRC+) for the highest in MLB over that stretch.

Cranking it up with RISP, plus the Brewers league best +41.0 BsR over those three seasons, is a big reason why their overall 102 wRC+ (17th in MLB) is nothing impressive but their 2,311 runs scored end up ten spots higher at 7th in MLB.

This was not necessarily as prevalent an element in the mix for the 2017 to 2022 Stearns helmed squads who had a more standard split at 97 wRC+ bases empty versus a 105 wRC+ with RISP.

In this year's small sample it's been even more extreme with the Brewers currently sporting a 78 wRC+ with the bases empty (29th) but a 137 wRC+ with RISP (2nd) that has helped them score 5.15 R/G (5th) so far despite their overall 97 wRC+ ranking only 17th. Base running has helped again too at +2.2 BsR (7th) but not quite as overwhelming as the last three years.

For literally a decade now the Brewers have been "making their own luck" on the pitching side by running out stellar defenses that have helped them shave 0.16 runs per game (4th) off their FIP from 2016 to 2022, then shaving a whopping 0.45 runs per game (1st) off their FIP from 2023 to 2025. Are we seeing the Brewers starting to put together a long enough RISP track record here at three plus years now to think that maybe they aren't just getting lucky and it is the residue from some sort of good design?

So far this year with neutral sequencing BaseRuns thinks the Brewers should be scoring 4.42 R/G instead of their actual 5.15 R/G. In 2025 it was 4.77 BaseRuns to 4.98 actual, 2024 was 4.77 BaseRuns to 4.80 actual, 2023 was 4.24 BaseRuns to 4.49 actual.

Here are some of the individual player splits from here in the early going...

Brice Turang
MPTY (91 PA of 160 wRC+)
wRISP (46 PA of 161 wRC+)
[mister consistency]

William Contreras
MPTY (84 PA of 104 wRC+)
wRISP (51 PA of 147 wRC+)
[not too far off his 118 to 142 split from 2023 to 2025]

Sal Frelick
MPTY (79 PA of 96 wRC+)
wRISP (36 PA of 7 wRC+)
[didn't get the memo]

Garrett Mitchell
MPTY (70 PA of 56 wRC+)
wRISP (39 PA of 213 wRC+)
[get this man a Mountain Dew Code Red. EXTREME. 41.4 K% bases empty versus 28.2 K% with RISP]

Luis Rengifo
MPTY (67 PA of 26 wRC+)
wRISP (40 PA of 20 wRC+)
[mister consistency, but not in a good way. Hitting for a 1.038 OPS over 17 PA with just a runner on 1st though]

Jake Bauers
MPTY (66 PA of 117 wRC+)
wRISP (46 PA of 170 wRC+)
[has a 6.1 BB% and .177 ISO bases empty versus a 19.6 BB% and .324 ISO with RISP]

David Hamilton
MPTY (61 PA of 0 wRC+)
wRISP (25 PA of 212 wRC+)
[no comments, put in frame, send to the Louvre]

Gary Sanchez
MPTY (51 PA of 146 wRC+)
wRISP (28 PA of 177 wRC+)
[the anti-Rengifo with only a .330 OPS over his 19 PA with just a runner on 1st]

Brandon Lockridge
MPTY (51 PA of 67 wRC+)
wRISP (30 PA of 202 wRC+)
[heal up quickly please]

Joey Ortiz 
MPTY (48 PA of 33 wRC+)
wRISP (31 PA of 100 wRC+)
[even Joey getting in on the action but still no extra base hits in those 31 PA with RISP]

Blake Perkins
MPTY (26 PA of -39 wRC+)
wRISP (19 PA of 78 wRC+)
[pales in comparison to his 131 wRC+ vs LHP and -68 wRC+ vs RHP split so far this year]

Christian Yelich
MPTY (22 PA of 30 wRC+)
wRISP (18 PA of 204 wRC+)
[all the kids look to old man Yelly for guidance]

Tyler Black
MPTY (12 PA of 9 wRC+)
wRISP (10 PA of 318 wRC+)
[ice cold Canadian blood coursing through his veins]

[nate82]

54 minutes ago, sveumrules said:

Garrett Mitchell
MPTY (70 PA of 56 wRC+)
wRISP (39 PA of 213 wRC+)
[get this man a Mountain Dew Code Red. EXTREME. 41.4 K% bases empty versus 28.2 K% with RISP]

I think with Mitchell his approach changes completely with men on base.  I haven’t checked but I think he swings earlier in the count with men on than when there is no one on.  I think this is what is killing his power as he is getting to too many two strike counts where he hasn’t swung the bat or watched the one pitch he could handle and then swung at the others.

I think Mitchell needs to start swinging earlier in the count when he is getting pitches to hit.  It seems like pitchers are throwing him get me over strikes and he is allowing them to get ahead in the count.  He needs to be more aggressive early.

[Underachiever]

Just now, nate82 said:

I think Mitchell needs to start swinging earlier in the count when he is getting pitches to hit.  It seems like pitchers are throwing him get me over strikes and he is allowing them to get ahead in the count.  He needs to be more aggressive early.

That same thing could be written about Yelich, in my mind, and feels like an approach the Brewers have. Maybe they do it to get pitch counts up. Sure seems like there's a lot of 0-2 counts. Batters watch the first strike, then swing at a low and away pitch to go to 0-2. The facts probably don't back it up to the extent that it seems to me like it is happening. 

[nate82]

Just now, Underachiever said:

That same thing could be written about Yelich, in my mind, and feels like an approach the Brewers have. Maybe they do it to get pitch counts up. Sure seems like there's a lot of 0-2 counts. Batters watch the first strike, then swing at a low and away pitch to go to 0-2. The facts probably don't back it up to the extent that it seems to me like it is happening. 

It was also an issue going back to Braun.  Braun was another who would frustrate me on taking that first pitch even if it split the middle of the plate fastball.  

[wiguy94]

29 minutes ago, nate82 said:

I think with Mitchell his approach changes completely with men on base.  I haven’t checked but I think he swings earlier in the count with men on than when there is no one on.  I think this is what is killing his power as he is getting to too many two strike counts where he hasn’t swung the bat or watched the one pitch he could handle and then swung at the others.

I think Mitchell needs to start swinging earlier in the count when he is getting pitches to hit.  It seems like pitchers are throwing him get me over strikes and he is allowing them to get ahead in the count.  He needs to be more aggressive early.

Mitchell definitely cannot afford to fall behind in counts with his glaring whiff issues. As you'd suspect most hitters have big splits when ahead/behind in the count but Mitchell's splits are super extreme.

Ahead - .370/.653/.630

Even - .195/.195/.244

Behind - .108/.105/.162

He just really can't afford to get behind in counts and lately he's been falling behind in the count too often. He's been even more passive with his swings in May than he was in March/April despite the percentage of pitches in zone he's seeing jump from 48 to 56 percent. It's no surprise that has coincided with a big offensive slump from him.

[wiguy94]

33 minutes ago, Underachiever said:

That same thing could be written about Yelich, in my mind, and feels like an approach the Brewers have. Maybe they do it to get pitch counts up. Sure seems like there's a lot of 0-2 counts. Batters watch the first strike, then swing at a low and away pitch to go to 0-2. The facts probably don't back it up to the extent that it seems to me like it is happening. 

Brewers in general are a very passive team. They have the lowest swing rate in MLB at 43.1%, second lowest in zone swing rate at 62.3%, and the lowest chase rate at 25.3%. Though interestingly the Brewers have seen the third fewest 0-2 pitches this year at 363. It does move up to 6th fewest by percentage of pitches at 6.1%.