.500 ball the rest of the way....do we have the division?

[Jirsch]

Loving hypotheticals, if the Crew go 17-17 the rest of the way, the Cubs need to go 23-11.  baring any crazy ish happening, and everything keeps going the way it has since the all star break, we got this division locked up...right??!!

[liveforoctober]

We have put ourselves in a really good spot. More importantly - we have 7 games remaining against them. If we can go 4-3 in those 7 that puts the Cubs in a real tight spot to try and chase us down.

Also to note we are 4-2 against them thus far ... so need a minimum 3 of those 7 to take the season series.

We should have a lot of favorable paper matchups the rest of the way ... just win those and we should be just fine!

[formerlybis]

Lotta baseball left. Of the 34 games left, there's really only 12 against teams currently not realistically in the mix for making the playoffs.

The current magic number is 30 vs. the Cubs, and as previously mentioned, if MKE wins 3 of those, they earn the season tiebreaker, which would get the magic number down to 23 for the other 27 games; if they only take 2, it'd be a magic number of 26 for those 27 games, and then it might get dicey.

[Cool Hand Lucroy]

22 minutes ago, formerlybis said:

Lotta baseball left. Of the 34 games left, there's really only 12 against teams currently not realistically in the mix for making the playoffs.

The current magic number is 30 vs. the Cubs, and as previously mentioned, if MKE wins 3 of those, they earn the season tiebreaker, which would get the magic number down to 23 for the other 27 games; if they only take 2, it'd be a magic number of 26 for those 27 games, and then it might get dicey.

Yeah, the schedules are pretty comparable down the stretch. Maybe the Cubs have it slightly better, with a more balanced off-day pattern. They've got a West Coast roadie, though, and no games against teams as bad as the Mets. Both of us play the Reds a lot. Cubs have the Marlins six times. We get Orioles and Rangers.

Our Phillies, Cardinals closing is a pretty tough one, but at least it's at home, and who knows? Both of those teams could be playing for very little at that point. Cubs end Marlins-Red Sox, which is a similar, but probably not as difficult, though the Boston series is on the road.

It really feels to me like it comes down to the 7 games vs. each other. 4-3 means the Cubs have to make up seven (with the tiebreaker) games over the course of the other 27. That's awfully difficult. 3-4 is still advantage Brewers. You're really letting them back in it if you go 2-5 and really stomping on their hope if you're 5-2.

Point is, beat everybody, but especially beat the Cubs.

[liveforoctober]

4 minutes ago, Cool Hand Lucroy said:

Yeah, the schedules are pretty comparable down the stretch. Maybe the Cubs have it slightly better, with a more balanced off-day pattern. They've got a West Coast roadie, though, and no games against teams as bad as the Mets. Both of us play the Reds a lot. Cubs have the Marlins six times. We get Orioles and Rangers.

Our Phillies, Cardinals closing is a pretty tough one, but at least it's at home, and who knows? Both of those teams could be playing for very little at that point. Cubs end Marlins-Red Sox, which is a similar, but probably not as difficult, though the Boston series is on the road.

It really feels to me like it comes down to the 7 games vs. each other. 4-3 means the Cubs have to make up seven (with the tiebreaker) games over the course of the other 27. That's awfully difficult. 3-4 is still advantage Brewers. You're really letting them back in it if you go 2-5 and really stomping on their hope if you're 5-2.

Point is, beat everybody, but especially beat the Cubs.

Small notation about the Cubs schedule - their biggest consecutive stretch is 13 straight going into September and both Brewers series are in that stretch including the final 3 (in MKE). Could mean nothing and truthfully if they can't get up for that series then the division is over but hopefully we can catch some tired arms if nothing else.

[formerlybis]

6 minutes ago, Cool Hand Lucroy said:

Yeah, the schedules are pretty comparable down the stretch. Maybe the Cubs have it slightly better, with a more balanced off-day pattern. They've got a West Coast roadie, though, and no games against teams as bad as the Mets. Both of us play the Reds a lot. Cubs have the Marlins six times. We get Orioles and Rangers.

Our Phillies, Cardinals closing is a pretty tough one, but at least it's at home, and who knows? Both of those teams could be playing for very little at that point. Cubs end Marlins-Red Sox, which is a similar, but probably not as difficult, though the Boston series is on the road.

It really feels to me like it comes down to the 7 games vs. each other. 4-3 means the Cubs have to make up seven (with the tiebreaker) games over the course of the other 27. That's awfully difficult. 3-4 is still advantage Brewers. You're really letting them back in it if you go 2-5 and really stomping on their hope if you're 5-2.

Point is, beat everybody, but especially beat the Cubs.

I know the point of this thread relates to the division, but this series starting this afternoon with the Braves is relatively important for seeding - probably the most impactful non-Cubs games on the remaining schedule. 

[Cool Hand Lucroy]

1 hour ago, formerlybis said:

I know the point of this thread relates to the division, but this series starting this afternoon with the Braves is relatively important for seeding - probably the most impactful non-Cubs games on the remaining schedule. 

Very good point. And the Braves have the inside track on the tiebreaker too. Brewers would need a sweep to grab it. 2 of 3 levels it, but the Braves have a 27-13 division record (the next tiebreaker). Brewers are 22-11, so similar pace, but I'd give Atlanta a slight edge given they've already done more of the work. They do have the Phillies 6 more times, though, so who knows?

SIDE NOTE: Division tiebreaker is a little bit silly? I'm not sure you want to reward teams for playing in a worse division. But it's almost never going to come down to that, so, not a huge gripe.

Braves-Dodgers also comes up next series, so the Brewers could get lots closer to a bye if they can go 4-2 these next two series.

[Frisbee Slider]

4 hours ago, Jirsch said:

Loving hypotheticals, if the Crew go 17-17 the rest of the way, the Cubs need to go 23-11.  baring any crazy ish happening, and everything keeps going the way it has since the all star break, we got this division locked up...right??!!

Cubs won’t win 67% of their remaining games. So yes, Brewers would win the division with a .500 record the rest of the way. 💪

[AKCheesehead]

Gregtember is right around the corner. Can’t count any chickens yet but the Brew Crew is in a great spot. 

[liveforoctober]

Just a few days after this topic was created and it isn't looking great for the Cubbies. If the Crew goes 16-16 the rest of the way the Cubs need to be a minimum of 23-9.

[torts]

Not if the losing portion of the .500 is all against the cubs

[BruisedCrew]

These "if..then" scenarios come up every year, and they are a way to quantify a team's position.

The Brewers are obviously in a very strong position with a 6 game lead with 31 to play. Fan Graphs has them at a 92% chance of winning the division.

But, as the PP noted, the 7 head to head games are sitting there as a big opportunity for the Cubs to cut into the deficit without needing help from anyone else. if they can win 5 (or, heaven forbid, more) of those games, the race will look very different going into the final 15 games. Winning 5 of the 7 would also give the Cubs the tiebreaker

If we go back to 31 games remaining in the 2018 season we would find the Cubs at 78-53 leading the Cardinals (74-58) by 4.5 games and the Brewers (73-60) by 6. (7 in the loss column).

A Cubs fan might have said "If the Cubs can just go 16-15, the Cards would have to go 20-10 just to tie them" If they were thinking about the Brewers at all they would have said that the Brewers would have to go 21-8 just to tie. That would probably have been considered unthinkable for a team that had been losing more than half of their games since mid May.

We all know what happened. The Cubs went 17-14 in their last 31 games, but the Brewers, helped by going 4-2 against the Cubs, went 22-7 to charge past the Cardinals and force the glorious Game 163.

So, yes, the Brewers are in great shape. But it's still "one day at a time". The next 16 games are going to say a lot about what the last 15 will be like.