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Posted
11 hours ago, Frisbee Slider said:

I never disliked Rob Z. I never understood why his 29.2 innings pitched for Milwaukee translated to such an outsized affection, though. 4.09 FIP and 7.6 K/9

I genuinely wish him well.

Not sure about outsized affection, but that 4.09 FIP shakes out to an on the nose average 100 FIP-, pretty good for somebody who was generally one of the last guys in the pen when he was healthy enough to pitch.

He also had a 2.12 ERA (unsustainable small sample sure) and +0.50 Win Probability Added, which are generally better indicators about how most fans will feel about a reliever. In lots of ways he was a pretty good microcosm of what the Brewers are trying to do from a batted ball standpoint too.

Going back to 2024 the Brewers have one of the higher fly ball rates in MLB (105 FB+ | t-2nd). Fly balls result in a lower BABIP than line drives or ground balls, so all those fly balls paired with top end OF defense (+63 DRS and +38 FRV are both 4th since 2024) have helped them run a 95 BABIP+ that is tied for the lowest mark in MLB over the last three years. Limiting BABIP helps strand runners, and the Brewers have an MLB best 105 LOB+ since 2024. Stranding runners helps teams beat their FIP, and the Brewers -0.34 ERA/FIP gap since 2024 is second best in MLB.

Rob Z ran a crazy high fly ball rate (129 FB+) which helped him suppress BABIP majorly (72 BABIP+) and strand runners frequently (121 LOB+) resulting in an ERA much better than his peripherals would imply. Of course all that was bound to regress with more exposure, but injuries prevented that from happening.

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