2026 Postseason Thread

[sveumrules]

The field is set and the 2026 Postseason starts tomorrow.

Some World Series Win Percents from various sources...

PECOTA
TBR (19.2%) MIL (18.5%) LAD (16.7%) CLE (11.5%)
NYY (5.9%) HOU (4.6%) BOS (3.7%) CHW (3.1%) 
ATL (4.9%) CHC (4.7%) SDP (4.2%) PHI (3.0%)

FanGraphs (Projections)
LAD (37.8%) MIL (11.5%) CLE (9.1%) TBR (8.3%)
NYY (6.6%) BOS (5.2%) HOU (3.4%) CHW (1.3%)
PHI (5.6%) CHC (4.7%) ATL (3.7%) SDP (2.7%)

FanGraphs (Season to Date)
MIL (23.7%) LAD (18.9%) TBR (11.1%) CLE (7.0%)
NYY (8.1%) BOS (5.7%) CHW (5.0%) HOU (2.6%)
CHC (7.0%) ATL (5.3%) SDP (3.4%) PHI (2.3%) 

Baseball Reference
MIL (18.6%) TBR (14.5%) LAD (12.4%) CLE (6.7%)
BOS (8.0%) NYY (6.9%) CHW (6.3%) HOU (2.4%)
CHC (11.1%) PHI (5.0%) SDP (4.7%) ATL (3.5%)

...think the FG Projections probably align the most with how baseball fans tend to think of the Dodgers relative to the rest of the field.

Put em all together and the Brewers win the World Series in something like 18.1% of simulated future realities.

I'll take those odds, don't really have any other choice. 

GO BREWERS !!

[Frisbee Slider]

What is FanGraphs looking at that simultaneously makes it an outlier and seemingly the closest to ‘reality’ ?

I can’t imagine what PECOTA sees in Tampa more than Milwaukee.