TooLiveBrew

And I have to say, the player had to be major league ready to handle that playoff season. And maybe not just ready, but ready to be a #3 type guy at least. Remember, with no Marcum that year, we probably don't make the playoffs. I do remember that, believe it or not. But the Marcum trade & subsequent value returned for the Brewers is a perfect example of why 'going for it' in any given one or two-year window is a really bad strategy. Another thing I remember after the Marcum trade went down is at least one MLB GM being (anonymously) quoted as being really surprised to see Lawrie dealt, and that he didn't even know Lawrie was available. Tells you a lot about how highly regarded Lawrie at least was at the time -- he was a prospect at least one other GM just assumed was off-limits.

But the point isn't whether or not he'll wind up being more or less valuable than the 325 IP the Brewers got from Marcum. It's that Lawrie could've been traded for a player under team control for far more than two seasons.

Saw this posted to reddit: compiled NWS snowfall forecast for WI

He's a .700 OPS (sub-.300 OBP) bat v. LHP in his career, so he definitely needs to be shielded from LHP. And his career .858 OPS v. RHP is about what I'd peg Gamel to do (not to mention Morales only managed .791 last season, his first back after the big leg injury).

They also traded the only impact bat in the system for 324.2 IP of Marcum. Meanwhile, the Jays still have Lawrie for at least 5 more seasons. Man, I hate that trade. The Brewers could've used Lawrie to bring in a solution for 6 seasons, and if that trade had been executed properly, we might not have any posts worrying about signing an overpriced vet FA SP this offseason.

I've always assumed in the Nashville & Huntsville 'facilities' discussions that the Brewers were as concerned with the clubhouse/training room/workout facility as with the playing ground & stadium. Of course, I know nothing about the Sounds' & Stars' facilities in those respects.

Yeah, because Melvin always publicly tips his hand

Which actually means, he has another SP in mind... http://www.jsonline.com/blogs/sports/183356521.html Naively getting my hopes up.

Well I hope they prove my pessimistic p.o.v. wrong. I'd love to see a roster loaded with good athletes.

Bullet dodged. Good judgment, Doug.

Aoki is the definition of a competent starter/player the team should be looking to improve upon. I have nothing against him, but he's not a difference-maker at the plate or in the field. Ideally, a better RF comes along to push him either to CF or to a 4th OF role, where he'd be able to be shielded from LHP.

I thought I read that the posting fee was $30M. Granted, if that's true, it means nothing to the Dodgers since they have apparently infinite pockets. But the posting fee shouldn't be completely glossed over in analyzing this deal.

I never said he shouldn't be brought in... in fact, a few posts earlier in this thread I said you'd swayed me from 'indifferent' to 'rooting for it to happen.' It was pretty clear I responded about Segura's defensive skillset only. And while there are a lot of scouting reports on him, most of them focus on what he'll eventually become... which isn't what the Brewers realistically need to worry about, as they only control him through age 28 or 29. I dunno, I tried to carefully lay out exactly what I saw from watching essentially every game he played last season at the MLB level. I don't see how scouting reports from MiLB prospect watchers, who probably see any given player less than five times/season in person (& imo that's being generous), refute what Segura showed in the bigs. Again, I'm not talking about stats, but tools. Since it's apparently not clear if I only say it once in a post, I think that it'd be both a good idea to sign Gonzalez (if possible) and start Segura in '13. I think the prospect-watcher scouting reports -- which, in my experience reading them, tend to rely on word-of-mouth/labels as much as actual analysis of gameplay/game tape -- are a vastly inferior method of analysis compared to actually watching the guy play day in & day out. How many games, combined, did these prospect watchers actually attend? How recent were the games? How long had Segura been manning SS? So Sickels thinks he could be an "outstanding" 2B defender, with a strong enough arm to man 3B, but apparently he just doesn't have the tools for SS? He's 'unrefined'... how many young, developing players could that be applied to -- nearly all of them? Since he just started playing SS last season, and showed signs of manning it well in MLB, I think it's much safer to make the assumption that this young player has improved at the position than that he's never going to be any better than he was in his first ~75-100 games there in MiLB. I have zero interest in extrapolating a young player's E total from a tiny sample to a full season equivalent, and then using that as some kind of barometer of how good he is or can become. I think that's pretty clearly an inaccurate way to attempt to define a player's ability, regardless of the stat... and E total in general is an awful way to evaluate a defender - especially a young one in MiLB and then acclimating to MLB in his first 45 games. I'm genuinely confused as to how anyone could have watched Segura defend at SS in MLB last season & not think he has the tools to be an asset there for the next six seasons. What are the weak parts you saw of his skillset, defensively? Hands? Reads off the bat? Because it certainly isn't his arm or athleticism right now. I don't think he's the second coming of The Wizard of Oz or anything, but I struggle to see where his big weaknesses were. He has the look to me of a player that's only going to get better in the field, with all the tools to capably handle SS. I mean, Aaron Rodgers 'wasn't athletic enough' to be a QB in the NFL... obviously that's an extreme example, but it underscores the unreliability of the kind of blanket-statement scouting reports that permeate the internet-baseball-world. And just one more time, for good measure, hell yeah bring in Gonzalez as insurance/mentor/option 1-b.

Biggest problem with UW is that Ryan's slow, boring offense doesn't attract top recruits.

From July 7 through the end of August, his OPS was .664... so no he's not lacking in slump spells. He is what he is, which is a solid OBP bat against RHPs. But as a hitter, he's nothing more than that.

Biggest problem with UW is that Ryan's slow, boring offense doesn't attract top recruits. Dekker is an exception, not the norm... and how he'll pan out is definitely still a work in progress.

I think it's incredibly unfair to state that confidence in Segura's defensive abilities is purely linked to homerism. What I saw, from a 'scouting' standpoint last season, was a guy with great speed, plus range, plus arm strength, good accuracy, and ok to good hands. I think that's a very fair assessment of Segura's defense as it currently stands. While you're clearly more bearish on him than that, in our PM exchange on Segura, you clarified that your main concern (and iirc the only negative you'd read from scouting reports) is how his defense will change as his thicker lower half fills out as he ages. I think it's also an objective statement to say that him filling out isn't something to be terribly concerned about until his late 20s or so. He's under team salary control until his age-28 or 29 season, iirc. So to me, the point isn't to blame him for filling out and losing athleticism & range when that hasn't happened yet. Let's instead focus on how he projects through the athletic prime of his career, which is when the Brewers control him. I'm optimistic about what Segura will bring to the table, defensively, over the next six seasons. But not because of blindly homeristic optimism - instead, because of what i saw from him at the big league level. Admittedly, it was a small sample... but I'm not examining stats here, I'm analyzing physical tools. Whether anyone believes me or not, objectivity is one of the things i value and strive for most. In my as-objective-as-I-can-be opinion, Segura is going to be an asset as a SS defender over the next six seasons.

For any BPL fans, the Dodgers feel a bit like Manchester City at this point. Best of luck to Zack. That's some payday.

Jackson & Sanchez might come off the board quickly once Greinke signs. But if a three or four year deal would get Jackson... I'm interested (no draft pick compensation iirc).

PM sent... back to Corey Hart!

I realize you think I'm wrong, but nowhere in my post did I state any kind of doubts about Gamel's bat. Heck, Hart is hardly the model of a full-season-guaranteed player. What the Brewers are asking Gamel to do, position-wise, doesn't affect my opinion of his bat. They should absolutely be planning to go forward with Hart in the mix for '13 (aka asking Gamel to get more versatile on defense), because there's no guarantee that Hart would be traded. As it stands, Hart would be better at 1B with Gamel in RF as opposed to the alternate scenario (yes, I remember Aoki... just an example). Hunter Morris shouldn't factor into what the Brewers do with Hart or Gamel in any major sense. He's had one season of success at the plate so far & wasn't regarded as even an average defender prior to '12. If Morris forces the Brewers' hand further, that would be great. But I definitely want to see more from him before I start planning around his arrival in Milwaukee.

In short, yes. Gamel will get on base at a better clip, offer very similar (if not better) defense, and would probably be a 20-30 HR guy over the course of a full season. Even if he's a step down in terms of total OPS, his higher OBP and drastically lower cost would be the right move for the Brewers to make if they can get value from trading Corey. The Brewers found their SS for the next 6 seasons (plus two solid P prospects) for half a season of Greinke -- I think it's safe to say a full season of Hart+comp pick would net a pretty good return. I'm not dead-set on trading Hart, but I do think many here are well underselling what a 'bargain/team-friendly' contract would actually run. I don't think $10-12M AAV would necessarily get it done.

Tampa, Cincy, and Washington are other recent examples of teams winning with a lot of young pitching. It's not necessarily as much an anomaly as it is that your young pitchers have to actually be talented. Imo a lot of times teams go with young pitching, they're going through rebuilding and the quality of said young pitching isn't necessarily comparable to the four examples in this discussion (or even the Brewers' young arms imho). If the Brewers want to build a team that can sustain contention, and not just take 1-yr. or 2-yr. 'shots' at contending, they're going to have to do it by cycling through & depending upon young pitching. Ideally I'd like to see an experienced arm added to the rotation, to eat up innings that younger arms won't be conditioned enough yet to provide. But I'd much rather the Brewers just go fully from within than see them sign a terrible contract with Dempster/some other overpriced FA, or give up a ton via trade for a short-term patch like Marcum/Greinke. Fwiw, I wholly agree with you on the 'anecdotal evidence dilemma'. But I think Oakland's good young pitching was probably more related to talent than simply a fluky good season.

MLBTR's latest on Greinke

The more I think about the situation the Brewers have with Corey Hart, the more I'm interested in investigating pitchers in similar contractual situations to Hart -- one year deals & unlikely to accept a QO if tendered after the '13 season. So here's a quick & dirty list, with 2013 base salaries in parentheses, thanks to MLBTR's list of 2014 FAs: Gavin Floyd ($9.5M) ... '12: 168 IP -- elbow injury Matt Garza (ARB Y3) ... '12: 103.2 IP -- elbow injury Jason Hammel ($4.75M) ... '12: 118 IP -- knee injury Phil Hughes (ARB Y3) Paul Maholm ($6.5M) Ricky Nolasco ($11.5M) Jason Vargas (ARB Y3) Edinson Volquez (ARB Y3) Obviously Nolasco's been discussed a fair amount already, and I feel like Ervin Santana's name being brought up in hot stove chatter has been an annual tradition for the past three or four season. So yes, some of these guys have been discussed already, some wouldn't be fits for various reasons, but I'm curious to get others' takes on going this route. And by no means do I think I've named every player that could be considered; I just did my best to sift quickly through the MLBTR list. The main attraction for me with this angle is the comp. pick recouped after '13, but the fiscal responsibility is also alluring. Yes, you have to give from your prospect pool, but in theory the price isn't too steep given the one-yr. contract. All but Garza & the last three on my list are playing for likely contenders in '13, so it might not be easy or realistic to target half of these guys.