TooLiveBrew

Congratulations! I suppose we can forgive you for not naming him Carsten Charles Benjamin Ryan Prince James Jerry Corey Attanasio Rigdon.

FanGraph's take (by R.J. Anderson): Free Felix Pie! When the Cubs acquired Juan Pierre prior to the 2006 season, the 21-year old Pie went to work in Triple-A Iowa. Seemingly the plan was to use Pierre as a bridge from Corey Patterson to Pie. Instead, the Cubs handed the 2007 center field job to Alfonso Soriano, and later Jacque Jones. Kosuke Fukudome, Reed Johnson, and Jim Edmonds would be signed during last off-season, leaving the Cubs yet again with a stacked outfield and leaving Pie on the outside looking in. Only 260 at-bats into his pro Cubs career, the Cubs have traded Pie to the Baltimore Orioles for Garret Olson and a prospect. Since 2007, Pie has hit well in the minors and has a knack for playing solid defense. It's easy to forget that Pie will only be 24 this coming season, but the question is how he'll fit in with the Orioles. Baltimore features a number of talent outfielders in Nick Markakis, Adam Jones, and to a lesser extent Luke Scott. Olson is an unspectacular starter with average stuff and below-average stats. Olson's minor league strikeouts have yet to carry over neither has his control in the minors. A 5.13 FIP isn't overly encouraging, and neither is the homerun problem, but CHONE foresees a better season in 2009 for Olson, 153 innings and a 4.96 FIP. The Cubs might use Olson in relief, or in the back of the rotation, and that is the problem here. Sure, Olson could later be dealt, but as of right now this trade is questionable for Chicago. Pie has lacked opportunity in Chicago and by dealing him for Olson the Cubs are not only selling low on a high potential player, but also potentially hurting their 2009 team. You can argue that the Cubs are in no position to rely on potential rather than known performance, but again, Olson is hardly a pillar of success. The alternative option, placing Pie on the bench as the fourth outfielder in place of Reed Johnson or Joey Gathright does not give Pie an incredible opportunity. However, with Milton Bradley's ever wavering health, there is a chance the Cubs would need a fill-in outfielder for some time. At the very least, the Cubs wouldn't be seen as giving Pie away. Then again, the Cubs seem to lose interest in prospects quickly. Even if Pie busts, you have to like the move for the Orioles, who have amassed a ton of young talent since Andy MacPhail took over control. In any other division the Orioles would be a future power. The O's certainly have done a nice job of stockpiling young talent. The Bedard trade already looks like a win, and this deal seems to be pretty low-risk/high upside for them.

During the fall I'm not on this board unless there is something going. Hang out at a Packer board. Ennder was referring to an injury that happened during the 2007 season, not Fall.

"The Cubs have reached agreement with the Orioles on a deal that will send Pie to Baltimore for left-hander Garrett Olson and Class A right-hander Henry Williamson, according to major-league sources. Pie, rated the Cubs' No. 1 prospect by Baseball America in 2007, has yet to prove he can hit in the majors, batting .223 with a .284 on-base percentage in 287 career plate appearances. Olson, the 48th overall pick in the 2005 draft, could fit for the Cubs as a middle reliever if lefty Sean Marshall moves into the team's rotation. The Padres wanted Olson as part of a three-team trade for Jake Peavy earlier this off-season, and could ask for him again from the Cubs if those talks revive." From your link

No when an ace of the staff puts up the same number of innings as 4th starter down the stretch I have an issue Well then your issue seems to be incorrectly calling him a 4th starter. Bottom line these guys are sent out to pitch and Sheets was doing that job the same amount as Suppan. Dude, this is from your own post: 2nd Half ERA Sheets 3.41 ... Suppan 5.98

I think what is getting forgotten here is how poorly defensive metrics address defensive shifting. That's a big help to Hardy imho. His range isn't some sneaky, overlooked skill. He's about average in terms of range, even though he does get good reads off the bat.

The bullpen has been absolutely decimated. Nope. The bullpen is actually better off than it was last season at this point, and has a very realistic chance to be quite a bit better in 2009 than it was in 2008.

Yeah, it's their right to ignore relevant details and boo!

Honestly hauser... are you still pushing this? There's just nothing that you can hang your hat on at this point. I mean, for pete's sake, you're reducing your argument to pitching wins & losses.

I have heard several times that when discussing OPS, 1 point of OBP is three times as valuable as 1 point of SLG. Unfortunately this will just be more hearsay, but what I've seen most often is that OBP is somewhere around 1.6x-1.8x more 'valuable' than SLG. Iirc instead of 'valuable', it's that OBP correlates to runs scored 1.6-1.8x more than SLG.

The trouble with signing Dunn means that someone has to go. Of course I've been repeating that I'd like to see Hart dealt for pitching (assumption there is that he has good trade value) & Dunn signed to man LF... Braun sliding to RF. Fielder is another one that could be dealt, but I agree with others that have commented that would kind of defeat the point of adding a second LH power bat (Dunn). I just don't think Melvin views Hart as one that should be moved -- he might be right on that, too, if that's indeed what he thinks.

Fair enough, but do you honestly think what the Yankees are doing this offseason is good for baseball and that the rules are ok the way they are now? If you do, I strongly disagree. Of course the imbalance in market size isn't great for competitive balance. I think limiting it to 'The Yankees' clouds the discussion -- there are plenty of teams that don't have to worry much about risk in their contracts. I just don't believe that a payroll cap would make things better. It would just ensure that the owners pulled in a disproportionate amount of revenue (no wonder so many of them are for a payroll cap, eh? http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif) By "the rules", I'm not quite sure what you mean. That's pretty broad -- can you clarify that at all?

Ack. I'm going to do my best to ignore that & live in denial... blissfully hoping Dunn will still somehow land in Milwaukee.

For the large market teams, sure, but Mark A. wouldn't be raking in the cash if the salary cap was around 80 million or so. How do you figure? The money would still be there over 162 games, and if one is setting an arbitrary limit on how much a team can spend (a figure lower than or equal to the current payroll in this example), the profit margin should increase no matter the market size. Yes, the bigger markets will turn even better profits, but that's just how it is now.

Really? Donald Fehr's insistance on not having a salary cap seems to be problem caused by the players. I will never understand why excessive greed on the owners' parts is almost completely tolerated by fans, but players are just scathed for it. The only thing a payroll cap would really do imo is ensure that the employees most responsible for the product are paid a disproportionately lower rate, and the owners would just rake in obscene amounts of cash.

IF Brittle Ben had pitched well when CC was here maybe the Brewers would have won the division, but he failed to produce good outings time after time. You seem completely incapable of being objective when it comes to Sheets. That line is so far off I just won't even bother re-posting the same free stats (aka facts) that you/I/anyone have/has access to... and have been posted time & time again in response to exaggerations like yours. He pitched a great season in 2008, and without him the Brewers don't even sniff playoffs.

Ray-Ray has had a lot of seasons at ~.800 OPS. He is good at hitting the ball. Will he decline? -- probably -- but Weeks was at .742 -- I don't think Durham is going to drop ~.70 points Without that huge BABIP, his OPS would have been somewhere around .775 or so, and given his vastly inferior range to Weeks I just think that they're a wash -- and that's without considering that Durham will almost certainly decline (in addition to seeing his BABIP fall) & Weeks has a very realistic chance to progress in '09. I think it may be prudent to have a backup ready for Weeks in place. Can't disagree with that. I'd really like to see a LH bat or someone that's succeeded against RHP... I guess much like Durham. However, I would very gladly trade some offense for defense when it comes to a platoon-mate or backup/alternate for Rickie. Someone like Counsell, but hopefully not so bad at the plate. Durham's lack of range really hurts at 2B.

You clearly said "Durham is a far inferior fielder & weaker hitter at this point" -- I would disagree on "far inferior" and "weaker hitter". I'd point to 2008 as evidence that Durham is a better hitter than Weeks. As best I know, the most important thing a fielder can do is get to as many batted balls as possible. Next of course is converting them to outs. Clearly Durham has the edge on the latter, and clearly Weeks has the edge on the former. From what I remember during the '08 season (meaning, statistical discussions), Weeks's defense was still more valuable than Durham's... RickiE WEEks happenings and all. As for the offense, I certainly won't try to argue that Weeks has produced better offense to this point. However, I will say that I think Weeks is the more talented batter at this point, and I'd rather hitch my cart to his bat than an old dude like Durham's. Ray-Ray had a .345 BABIP last season, so expecting him to replicate a .813 OPS is a unwise imho. As for Rickie, I think it's a good bet that his BA will in fact rise this coming season. His .277 BABIP from 2008 was 22 points below his career rate. I think it's reasonable to project a line somewhere around .260/.360/.425/.785 for him in 2009, & I of course am of the belief that he could hit for a lot higher SLG than .425.

Yawn. Yes, I know this Then... yawn... you already know that anything a hit or BA tells you is covered by OBP & SLG I said Durham was better in 2008 -- so your math seems lacking. I know... for some reason you continue to ignore that you're the only one interested in arguing about that. I am and have been all along talking about Weeks & Durham while they were both playing for the Brewers. I don't think you can just say that authoritatively. Let's look at the facts. Clearly this is Ep. I-III jet-booster shoes R2D2, not Ep. IV-VI 0.78 mph R2D2 Who are these "many" that you keep referring to? -- Are they like the "chosen" or the "forgotten"? The same people that argue over & over & over how awful Weeks is & how readily they'd trade him for a bag of balls. I can't honestly believe you're going to try & pretend I'm making this up. And it would be nice to not have you just mock me, for whatever that's worth. Why does it matter more that Durham was better than Weeks post-acquisition when Durham was better over 2008? Durham improved our 2b situation from when he was acquired. Durham was a better 2b in 2008. Durham improved our 2B situation in 2008. Durham was not better than Rickie Weeks during his time in Milwaukee. Why does it matter what he did for another team? You seem to be out to argue points that no one is trying to make. Durham was better overall on offense in 2008. What I've been talking about is the assumption among many/the chosen/the forgotten that Durham was better than Weeks once he got here. That's just not true.

For everyone else, i advise that you stop worrying about "expectations" and just go into the season knowing we will probably be competitive. Why bother posting in this thread? Clearly there are a lot of people that enjoy projections.

I don't think it's not a big deal, I just think the vast, vast majority of dudes were juicing, & that the notion of an 'uneven playing field' is basically a myth.

No you can't throw out BA. Especially since the Weekster's keep talking about his potential improvement in BA. Hitting a baseball with a bat is a skill, one that Weeks is about the worst in the NL at among second basemen. OBP & OPS include everything that BA gives. What you want to see out of a higher BA will be reflected in higher OBP & OPS. Even if he isn't as bad as the "many people vow" it certainly doesn't mean he is good. Notice that word's lack of existence in my post regarding his defense. http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif I am not optimistic that Weeks can improve his BA -- and I think if that is the case, he will be walked much less in the future. As usual, we feel differently on Rickie. I think it's entirely reasonable for him to improve on his BA from 2008, and by quite a bit. Heck, it could happen just from dumb luck and/or random variance. So you are saying that Weeks was so far superior in the field that it washed away Durham's offensive advantage? If you are, I'd probably have to see some sort of stats to back that up. Yes. At 2B, Durham's lack of range made/makes him an inferior defender. Plus, Durham (joined MIL 7/21/08) 7/21-31: .222/.263/.389/.652 - (19 PA) Aug. '08: .263/.364/.421/.785 - (44 PA) Sep. '08: .314/.407/.549/.956 - (59 PA) Aggregate: .280/.369/.477/.846 (122 PA) Weeks 7/21-31: .290/.361/.516/.877 - (36 PA) Aug. '08: .247/.344/.395/.739 - (93 PA) Sep. '08: .283/.415/.528/.944 - (65 PA) Aggregate: .269/.371/.461/.832 (194 PA) Durham was slightly better, but in fewer PA to Weeks (which does make Rickie's production a tick more valuable than just the naked rate stats show). Of course, the question remains whether Durham's presence helped inflate Weeks's production by shielding him from tougher RHP, but that's pretty subjective. I'm not sure how I'd approach that, though there isn't much question that Durham faced some tough RHP to spell Weeks. The raw stats, though, certainly don't reinforce that Durham was better at the plate with the Brewers than Weeks over the same timespan. And the math on the 7/21-31 stat lines is my own, so I apologize if there are any errors (I think I got things right). TLB, I wasn't specifically pointing out Durham for the 09' replacement, rather using him as an example of what we could and should do. I guess -- to me -- the point is that whoever you can come up with that's going to be a significant upgrade over Weeks is either going to cost a lot of money, some top prospects, or both. Durham, who many suppose was better than Weeks after his acquisition in 2008, actually wasn't. Weeks was better, though like I said there's some room for debate when considering the caliber of RHP each guy faced.

In the OP's scenario, to the Crew there's certainly more value implied than just Cameron if part of the reason for the trade is to free up payroll room. However, in the trade itself it's just wasting resources to deal away a player for less than he is worth... especially when he plays a premium defensive position well. The Brewers don't have to trade Cameron. The only ways I can think of where a guy's trade value is suppressed like the OP describes is something like when Terrell Owens was mouthing off & demanding trades out of SF & Philly, or when a guy is nearing a contract deadline (end of arbitration seasons/contract). Even in those situations, though, if the player's talented enough there should be multiple suitors to help drive up the value.

FWIW, Rickey was obvious - I would not have voted for Jim Rice. This is the way I feel. Rice getting in is another notch in the 'Hall of Very Good' imo.

I had a feeling you'd be around soon, FtJ... Ray put up way better numbers in 2008 than Weeks did. I didn't say he had a better year than Durham at the plate. He is definitely a bad second baseman, if you want to argue to what degree he is bad, that's a good topic for debate, but he doesn't play 2b well. Yup. He's not as bad as many people vow. Whether people like it or not, he gets to a lot of balls that other 2B don't. And of course I won't sit here & dispute that he botches easy plays at times. If you compare Weeks to each NL team's composite 2bman in 2008... Weeks would have the worst BA, the 7th best OBP, the 11th best SLG and the 9th overall OPS. -- That, to me is below average production. You can throw out BA since you're using OBP, and 7th out of 16 is average or above. 9th in OPS is average or below. Basically, he's a league-average hitter at 2B, and I am of the belief that his defense relative to his peers isn't bad enough to drag him down out of overall league-avg. territory.