FVBrewerFan

The article you cited actually proves the point that protection exists. Do some people over-inflate how much? Sure, I agree with you there. But it does exist. And I still believe that plays in a role in why Braun isn't a .950+ guy anymore. Some day I'll look this up, but I would bet he saw more strikes (and FB strikes at that) back when Prince was behind him.

I agree, not necessary to have a great change if you have a great curve. I believe you need one or the other to be a top of the rotation guy, and since Lopez has the curve his ceiling is above #3 starter.

It's pretty simple. #1 led to 2 and 3. If they drafted better in he first round, maybe you don't need to trade for Greinke- and you certainly wouldn't have the depth problem. Horrific results from the 1st round year after year really hurt, still hurts today. We have beat this to death, but I don't blame Melvin one bit for he Greinke trade. They could have won the WS that year if it wasn't for Marcum wearing down, and ha's the chance you take. A chance Mark A wanted to take as well, by the way.

It's easy to forget how good Marcum was for mos of that season. He even carried the rotation for a stretch. But he ran out of gas by the time the playoffs came around, and I really believe the Brewers would have won the WS if he was the same pitcher in Oct.

This is what impresses me. So many guys can put up big numbers getting by with a plus FB. Lopez has the best break a ball in AA, and a FB to go with it. Medeiros and others may have better stuff, but I will take a guy who is pitching this well at an advanced level. We can all rank guys in A or lower higher, but that's based on potential. Lopez is there now, or very close. I can see him fitting in very nicely in the 2017 rotation.

Definitely agree with you there. And I do get your point about bogging down the offense with two bigs that can't score. But if one is Monroe, you have scoring there. I guess I just like to have that card when you need it- to have 3 shot blockers on the floor at once (incl Giannis.) Maybe when you're playing Off/Def possessions at the end of games, etc. And Dave, I don't think there's a ton of pressure for Giannis and Parker to score. You have 6 guys who are all capable of averaging 15 a game, that's 90 points already. My point is, I don't think there's pressure for those guys to score 20+ a game. At least not yet. Jabari will need to get at that level soon (not next season) since he doesn't bring a whole lot to the table other than scoring.

Even if all that was true, it misses the point. A new GM coming in doesn't care about the last 50 years or the next 50 years. They care about the next 3-5, and can they improve on the current record in that time. That's called resume building. I just don't believe anyone would pass on being named GM of a MLB team, just because it's not a storied franchise. Look at Epstein, he took the Cubs job even though they haven't won anything in 100 years. Your analogy of Harvard vs UWM is way off, it's more like UW vs U of IL. Why would anyone want to be just another face in the Cardinals or Dodgers organization when they could have the title of GM?

True, the Royals had rotation similar to the Brewers last year, in that basically the same 5 guys pitched all year, none were dominant but pretty consistent. You can win a lot of games that way, even make the playoffs, but it's really hard to win it all without an ace or two. There's always exceptions to everything, but this is still the most likely path to a WS title.

Yea, I would like one more Henson/Sanders type guy. I don't care if they score, just one more long guy in the paint who could play with Henson/ Giannis at the same time. I really thought that's the direction they should go, just keep getting longer and longer on defense. Shot blockers everywhere, and it never stops coming at you.

You're close, but very simply "Droid" is a brand name for Motorola. And I do currently have a Droid with Verizon service, and it's the best phone I've ever had. It has the best battery life of any phone I've had since a very old Blackberry many years ago. That's one of the most important things to me, personally. Also, as someone said, go to a store and pick them up...see how they feel, what size you're comfortable with. That's something you have to live with 100% of the time, so it should have the screen size you want, look/feel, etc. You can get a phone for basically free whether it's Iphone, Droid, Galaxy, etc., it will only be a year or two (max) outdated. You said you're both getting phones right? Maybe it would make sense for one of you to get an Iphone, the other get an Android phone? That way you'll know what you both want the next time...

I don't agree with that at all. All teams have meddling owners to one degree or another. And frankly, none of us really knows how involved Mark A is or has been in baseball decisions, it's all speculation. Entrenched craptitude? New GM would be inheriting a top 10 farm system and a current scouting dept that has done quite well, based on early returns. Also, I don't think having Melvin there is a negative, especially if they're looking for a young candidate. They would view it as a plus to have Melvin around to lean on. Bottom line, unless you're already a GM somewhere, this is a step up for anyone else in baseball. Even if everything you said were true, anybody would want a GM job.

Will Craig Counsell manage according to analytics? Will he be forced to? I'm asking because analytics not only applies to player movement, it applies to how a team plays on the field. RR was supplied with this info, yet he chose to ignore it when he wanted to. Look at all the info we already have at hand. Defensive shifts, when to bunt, importance of walking, taking pitches. We could go on and on. Some of that CC can control directly, some he needs to instill in the players. But, using bunting as an example, the numbers are clear. So does CC go with the odds every time, or have the freedom to go with "gut feel" when it suits him? Ditto for defensive shifts. Because you're defeating the whole purpose of analytics when you go with the odds sometimes and not others. (Similar to Black Jack, for those of you who play.)

It's been a while, so I went to look at the Bucks roster. What is the plan at the 4/5 position? Seems to me they only have two proven players there- Monroe and Henson. Giannis, Parker, and Copeland could all play some 4, even Inglis if he's ready. But I think that takes away from their strength- incredible size at every position. I just think they're better, especially defensively, when Giannis and Parker are on the wing. Just due to how the team is built, they will each need play the 4 at times- depending on match-ups. I get that, but again I would like to see that as little as possible. Do they really plan to give more minutes to Plumley or OBryant? Is there another trade that needs to happen? Or are they reversing direction and playing smaller?

Yea, but at least he's done better since a horrible start. He has been pushed up the system a bit, so I will reserve my disappointment in him until next season. Same thing with Coulter, actually, only he had a red-hot start and has completely tanked since then. That bums me out more than Taylor.

By Park Factors on Fangraphs Miller Park has been ~104 over the last 3 seasons, so 4% above league average. http://www.fangraphs.com/guts.aspx?type=pf&season=2014&teamid=0 Correct. So according to Fangraphs, Miller Park is even a bit more of a hitters park, since MP is 4th in MLB. I would also agree you can look beyond park factor. For those of us that watch a ton of games over the years, you don't think MP is far more a hitters park than what the Dodgers, Giants, Cardinals have? I can't tell you how many times a batter didn't get a good swing at all on the ball and it just sort of eases over the LF wall for a HR in MP. Whereas some of those other parks a ball can be crushed and it's a warning track out.

Yes, that's exactly what I said. So, who's more likely to hire the right people? A 26 yr old with little to no MLB experience, or someone who has been around the block from a successful organization?

I've never understood this movement to young GMs with knowledge of analytics. Why can't you hire those people, as the Brewers have, without having to make them GM? Analytics has little or nothing to do with drafting players. Has little or noting to do with developing players. Nor does it have anything to do with when is the right time to bring up a prospect, what is a fair return for Gomez/Fiers. My first question to any GM candidate would be this. "Who are the top 5 scouts in terms of identifying pitchers, and why? How many of them do you think you can convince to come over to the Brewers?" Then, same question, only replace "scout" with "pitching coach." Not only at MLB level, but instructional league on up. I'm not going to get the answers I'm looking for from some 26 yr old MBA from Yale. The new GM doesn't need to be 87 either, but around long enough in a successful organization. Someone who is well-respected, and someone who knows talented people- not only in MLB, but MiLB also. This organization needs elite pitching talent at every level, and be able to sustain that for years. That's how you get to be a true contender, and stay there. Not with a calculator. It takes someone who can bring in the right people to identify and develop pitching, along with systems and procedures to keep them healthy, how to build up innings, teach them a 3rd pitch, on and on...and on. I'm not against analytics. Analytics brought us Adam Lind, a perfect "money ball" player. Not a big name, but look at the production you get for his salary and that is true value. That's where analytics come in. What FA out there is a good value, making trades that involve MLB player for MLB player, etc. That is needed, and you need to have a strong analytics dept. But to me, HS/college scouts, advance scouts, and the player development people are far more important to a team like the Brewers.

Again, I don't think they need to rely exclusively on the system for position players. I couldn't agree more with TheCrew, it starts with a legit rotation. Once it's clear they have that, you can look at the line-up at that point and see if it makes sense to bring in a FA to fill a position or two. They should have a lot more financial flexibility by then. I've always said it depends on Peralta/Nelson. (And now you can add Jungmann.) If they can prove over a longer time frame they are a legit 1,2,3 starters you can begin building the team to compete immediately at that point. #4,#5 can easily be filled with a lot of guys in the system. Same with the bullpen. If Nelson keeps this up, and Peralta can get back to 2014 form (which isn't unrealistic) you're halfway home. Then you can always find a Lind type for a reasonable deal if you need to plug a hole or two.

I'm sure hitting in front of Prince Fielder had something to do with it? I'm sure there's a way to prove this, number of strikes he saw back then vs now but I won't take the time to look it up.

Sorry, that's just not true. I've given the stats above. I can go back even further and show the numbers. MP is a hitters park, period. 5th in runs over the last few years, 4th this year.

Isn't Miller Park pretty neutral over all? Not at all. I looked up park factors, and for avg runs MP is 4th this year, 5th in 2013, 7th in 2012. Last year was an anomaly, where MP was in the middle. But just about every other year, it is clearly a hitters park.

Exactly. Just as you could have easily projected Prince Fielder, as an example, as a big power bat in the clean-up spot for 10 years+ in MLB. Was that a guarantee? No. But objectively you could look at his numbers at every level and project him as such.

Exactly, Peralta was an ace in 2014. Nelson has done it for a couple months, which is very encouraging, but we need a longer track record than that. As far as an ace in the system, it's true. There are certainly guys capable of reaching that level, but there's not a guy who is just dominating each level through the system. The system is also missing a catcher and a consistent power bat or two.

Big Taylor Williams fan here, here's hoping he fully recovers and is back on the top 25 again down the road.

Segura's OPS is .611. That is awful. So I don't know why anyone would be shocked at negative comments about him. He had a couple great months to start off his career, and has been terrible since then. No way to sugar-coat it. With that said, he's cheap, and it doesn't really matter who plays SS next year anyhow. So there's not much to lose by keeping him there and see if he improves. If they want to give Sardinas or Rivera a shot at starting next year, I would be fine with that too.