joepepsi

Burns is a bad starter and Smith is a bad reliever.

I don't think they should be sellers. I'm in favor of standing pat vs. trading top prospects for a half season rental. But if you're trading anyone on the 25 man roster this summer, it better be for a stretch run now. Otherwise, it's better to wait and trade Hardy, Hart or whoever during the offseason when there is more time to work out an optimal deal.

Good post Ennder. I think the Twins are more like the Blue Jays in the East than the Orioles. The BJ's have averaged 84 wins each of the previous 4 seasons, the Twins, 86.5. The Blue Jays might have run away with the AL Central last year, had they been in that division. Life can be tough when you play 54 games a year versus the Rays, Red Sox, and Yankees. The Twins played those 3 teams a total of 17 games last year. The Blue Jays went 13-1 against the White Sox and Twins. But I digress.....

The Cubs are streaking-15-7 in July. But 8 of those victories are against the Nats, Reds, and Pirates. They lost 2 of 3 to the Phillies and Braves, split with the Cards and took 3 of 4 from the Brewers in Wrigley. From now through mid August they play Houston, Florida, Reds, Colorado, Phillies, Pirates, then head out West. Houston is facing series against the Cubs, Cards, Giants, Brewers, Marlins, Brewers, through Aug 17th. The Cardinals' schedule looks similar to the Brewers. For the Crew to get back in this thing for real they'll have to beat up on the bad teams like the Cubs have done this month.

Twins from 2009-2005: 48-49 88-75 79-83 96-66 83-79 Cardinals 2009-225: 53-46 86-76 78-84 83-78 100-62 White Sox: 50-47 89-74 72-90 90-72 99-63 Indians 39-58 81-81 96-66 78-84 93-69 Athletics 40-55 75-86 76-86 93-69 88-74 Brewers 48-48 90-72 83-79 75-87 81-81

I'll go with Gamel.

I completely agree. Every GM makes moves that don't work out. You have to judge the GM on whether the decision was valid at the time, not just on whether it worked out OK. As a lifelong Oriole fan, I've had the misfortune of suffering through many boneheaded moves in the last decade. Trading John Maine for Kris Benson was stupid from the outset and doomed to fail. Trading for Sammy Sosa was dumb. Thinking Corey Patterson would suddenly develop plate discipline was indicative of a GM who simply didn't know how to evaluate talent or its potential. Signing an arbitration eligible ss, coming off 3 straight years of marked improvement, to a 4 year/$24 million contract at age 26, was a reasonable decision at the time. Signing a veteran pitcher who had started 32+ games every year for the previous 8 seasons while delivering league average ERA was a reasonable move, given the team was desperately short of starting pitching. Signing a young Ben Sheets after his amazing 2004 season to a 4 year deal was a smart move. Acquiring CC for three minor league players was a smart move. Signing Cameron and Hoffman were smart moves. Picking up Carlos Lee for Scott freaking Podsednik was brilliant. Flipping Lee for Cordero was a good move, even if Cordero left 1-1/2 years later. Some of these moves didn't work out as planned. But I think it's hard to argue they were doomed to fail at the time each decision was made. Melvin has made reasonable, often excellent baseball decisions, given the circumstances at the time. A GM's job is to build a long term winning organization, juggling the needs of winning now with the needs to maintain quality long term, while working within the limits of the organization. Melvin has done this job well. Is there someone out there who could have done it better? Maybe, but who that person would be ain't nothing but speculation.

Yeah, he's probably a Type A agent. This may be a bad trade in the long run, but if the Cardinals win the division and/or make it to the series, the fans won't care. Not saying Melvin should do a similar move, just pointing out that winning now is often a good strategy from a typical fans' perspective.

Dunn is great, but I wouldn't do it. First off, if it's a salary dump the Nats want, then Dunn could be had for less than an established major league starter. Two middling prospects would probably do the trick, someone like Iribarren and a low level A baller. The only place to hide Dunn in the NL is a 1B. So if he's to be the Brewers 1B in 2010, then OK. But they'll be paying him more than what Prince is going to make.

Well this is exactly what Billy Beane intended when he traded for Holliday. Still not a bad season though. Holliday's numbers were always grossly inflated by Coors. Away from Coors his career OPS is .801. This year his road OPS is .788, not really much different.

Last year's staff had the 3rd lowest ERA in the league. The 2005 team had the 5th lowest. Until Bush took one off the elbow and Parra imploded this year's staff led the majors in % of quality starts and was top 5 in lowest ERA, iirc. Melvin has brought in several highly touted young pitchers-De la Rosa, Capellan, ZachJack(a 1st rounder), Capuano, Bush ( 2nd rounder). Even took a flyer on former high pick Matt Ford. It seems those who would fire Doug enjoy the simplicity of hindsight through anecdotes of failure, while dismissing organizational success as the product of others' labors.

Both Neimann and Price are under the contracts they signed when drafted! If the Brewers had the top draft pick in 2007, I'm sure they would have picked Price and signed him to a similar contract. The Brewers had the next pick in 2004 after Neimann was chosen. They drafted Mark Rogers and gave him a $2.2 million bonus, but fortunately didn't sign him to the 5 year major league deal Neimann got.

Shields is signed 4 years/$11.25 million, with some pretty hefty option years after that. But I agree, that's a nice contract for the Rays with minimal risk. Sonnastine is making $430,000 this year, unless the Cott's website is wrong. It's not really fair to pick and choose contracts. Kazmir is signed to a 3 year/ $28.5 million deal with a 4th year option that pays an additional $13.5 million if they pick it up. He's a great pitcher, but he's not doing so well this year.

I think Melvin has done or tried to do many of the things you want. He identified Hall as part of the core set of players and offered him a longer term contract. Hall was blocked at ss by a healthy, better fielding Hardy, so he was moved to a different position, CF. He didn't wait on Braun; he signed him long to a long term deal after one season. Reportedly Prince was offered a 5 year deal that same Spring, but he turned it down. I'm not sure though, that extending all your "core" young players buys you payroll and roster flexibility. Hall has hampered flexibility. What if Hardy had been signed long term sometime in the previous two seasons. What would everybody be saying about Melvin now? What if Hart was signed long term? I think it's very dangerous to sign young pitchers long term in their first year or two. The injury/ineffectiveness risk is way too high. If Yo finishes this season in fine form, then a 3-4 year deal should be put on the table. But I'd hold off on Parra for a while, although I think he will turn out to be a fine pitcher. I think it's very easy to evaluate a GM looking back, but a very difficult job to do in the present. There is a tremendous amount of risk to calculate in the front, a lot of luck to hope for in the present, and pretty easy to quantify looking back.

It's a sound financial strategy for a small/medium market GM to tie up his best young players long term. I don't think I was around here when Hall signed his contract, but I'd be curious to know the reaction at the time. Everyone here championed Braun's lengthy contract after only season of major league experience. Strike me down for even mentioning it, but it's possible he develops chronic back issues or some such similar thing that makes him a mediocre player halfway through the term. Will that be Melvin's fault too? I never fully bought the Bando regime spin about Hall being a True Talent. On the other hand, he had 3 seasons in his early-mid 20's when he showed marked improvement each year in every aspect of his game. He was heading to arbitration as a starting ss who'd just posted an .899 OPS with 35 home runs. Not quite Hanley Ramirez territory, but close. Melvin saved money over what Hall would have cost through arbitration in 2007 and 2008. Of course going forward it's a terrible deal. But amortized as $6 million a year over 4 years is not that bad of a deal given Hall's two seasons leading up to the contract.

Tampa Bay did it with a great homegrown pitching rotation, plus a good trade to get Garza. It took them a long time to develop all that young talent. I think there has been an expectation since the arrival of Hardy, Weeks, Prince, Hart, and Braun, that the Brewers will make a push to win that core intact. Like Tampa Bay trading Delmon Young, I guess you can argue Weeks, Hardy, or Hart should have been traded pre-arbitration for young pitching talent.

Infield: Prince, Weeks, Escobar, Gamel, Counsell, McGehee OF: Braun, Hart, Gerut, Cat, some low rent veteran guy C: Kendall, Salome Rotation: Yo, Parra, Bush, Suppan, Looper Bullpen: same rough mix of fellows

You're right, Counsell has been very good this season. He'll be back next year, is my guess.

He's an excellent GM who juggles the fan base's need for a competitive team with a limited budget. He is trying to win in the short term with the young core of hitters. Except for Braun and Prince the rest of those young hitters have not progressed as projected 2-3 years ago. Using redundant minor league talent to land CC was remarkable. One can criticize signing Suppan, but they would not have competed for a playoff spot the last two years without him. In '07 he led the team in starts and innings pitched. Last year he faded badly, but he's made 75 starts for the Brewers with roughly league average results. Given the difficulty signing a free agent pitcher last winter, as well as the struggles to replace Bush in the current rotation, you can't assume there was a cheaper, more productive pitcher available for these last 2-1/2 seasons. It's true the Brewers had to overpay somewhat for Suppan, but they also needed to send a message to the fans and other players in MLB they were serious about winning now. Without him we'd be looking at 75 extra starts by Claudio Vargas and Mike Burns types.

The Brewers only have 4 players who contribute anything of significant on offense: Prince, Braun, Cameron, and McGehee. The rest of the offense is terrible. (OK, Hart isn't terrible, just below average for a corner OF'er.) The rotation has certainly faltered without Parra and Bush, but the offense is seldom carrying its weight.

OK you convinced me. Keep Gamel. Trade Escobar to whoever overvalues that sort of player.

What about McCutcheon for the Pirates? 293/349/443; 9SB/0-CS. Good numbers for slick fielding CF'er.

I'd prefer to keep Parra, Gamel, and Escobar and not make any trade if it takes one of these 3 to get something done. That said I guess Gamel is the most tradeable. Then Doug can still move Hardy in the winter for more pitching.

Just saying it doesn't make it so. He had to get approval to bust the budget and make the CC offer. Otherwise he had to keep payroll under $90 million.

I was about to post something today to the effect Braun was the quietest .910 OPS hitter I can remember. He's hit only 2 homers since June 21st, 5 doubles. Certainly seems as though his power is zapped.