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LouisEly

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Everything posted by LouisEly

  1. LouisEly
  2. LouisEly
    I'm not following. In your Baez/Williams to the Mets comparison you referenced Pete Crow-Armstrong as what it took to get those two. That was the fall of 2021 - PC-A wasn't thought of nearly as highly then as he is now. He wasn't ranked in any top 100 prospect list until pre-2023. He was 19 and in A-ball and had a lot of development risk - he hadn't made the jump to AA yet. Black has, so he has much less development risk, and thus EBJ is closer now to the trade value that PC-A was in the fall of 2021. Trade values have to be discounted by risk - injury risk, age risk, development risk, performance risk. PC-A had a lot of development risk in 2021.
  3. LouisEly
    Assuming the total for picks 7-10 is $200K (which I think is pretty accurate), that leaves $4.3M to split between Bitonti and Pratt.
  4. LouisEly
    .758 road OPS this year - not stellar, but certainly better than their .571 OPS in RF. (Just don't look at his road OPS last year.) Also, .927 OPS vs. LHP this year. I'd be on board.
  5. LouisEly
    1) That was the Mets - they don't make the best personnel decisions. B) At the time, PC-A was a 19-year-old in A-ball with 32 career professional plate appearances to his name. There was plenty of development risk. Tyler Black has successfully made the jump to AA - he has a lot more value today than PC-A did in 2021. If it's a late 1st round pick below AA, EBJ is the much better comp. Or Guilarte or Luis Lara (or both). 3) Every team in the league has access to Bellinger's advanced metrics and the Cubs know it. Even if he does regress to his metrics, what will that project to be? Still has to be a lot better than the Brewers .571 OPS from RF. His ISO and line drive % are less than his career averages, and he is only striking out 17.7% of the time. There are reasons to think that he won't regress that much.
  6. LouisEly
    Jeferson QueroJacob MisiorowskiJackson ChourioTyler BlackSal FrelickBrock WilkenRobert GasserCarlos F RodriguezJustin JarvisLogan HendersonJosh KnothAbner UribeEric Brown JrDaniel GuilarteFreddy ZamoraLuke AdamsCooper PrattLuis LaraMatthew WoodCam Devanney
  7. LouisEly
    Blackmon can't hit outside of Coors either. .706 road OPS this year, .663 last year, .703 in 2021. Moustakas was traded to the Angels on June 25th.
  8. LouisEly
    Reds lose!
  9. LouisEly
    Giants with two in the top of the 10th!
  10. LouisEly
    And only two fewer wins than the Dodgers.
  11. LouisEly
    The Brewers couldn't pay him a long-term contract. So they traded him while he still had significant value instead of letting a significant asset expire. They can pay him for two months. Now his trade value is significantly lower because an acquiring team can't give him a QO.
  12. LouisEly
    Cron away from Coors this year - .706 OPS. Last year - .619. Strong disagreement that he will be "fine".
  13. LouisEly
    Who does not interest me in any way is C.J. Cron. His OPS away from Coors this year is .706, and last year was .619. Not an upgrade.
  14. LouisEly
    Bellinger might be worth the risk. $12.5M mutual option next year, so no guarantee that he's back (likely declines his option if he continues at this pace), making it hard to estimate his value. Would likely have to be a PTBNL in there dependent on if he declines his option. But he solves both the RF and 1B issues though. No idea what would be a good offer. EBJ + Lara, with another piece (one of Mendez/Guilarte/Zamora) if Bellinger doesn't decline his option?
  15. LouisEly
    The reality is that there just aren't going to be many bats available who are significant upgrades. The Mets - with their $335M payroll - have Daniel Vogelbach as their DH. Think about that. The Cardinals can get more for Goldschmidt that he's worth because he will likely be the only high impact bat available, even though he turns 36 in September. Same with Candelario (and there's risk there - you can't ignore 2022). Candelario may be the right risk, but with that low salary there will be competition. I don't recall seeing Brandon Drury's name brought up yet. He could help shore up the offense anywhere in the infield except SS. Under contract next year for $8.5M so not terrible. I don't know that the Brewers like his BB:K profile, but the bat is there and defensive versatility. If I'm targeting players, it's Drury and Hader. Trade them in the offseason for 75% of what it costs to acquire them.
  16. LouisEly
    It's July 15th and the Yankees and Red Sox are tied for last place in the AL East.
  17. LouisEly
    With the off day on Monday, they won't need a 6th starter until 7/23. Then with the off day on 7/27, they won't need one until 8/2 and then maybe 8/6. But with off days on 8/10, 8/14, 8/21, and 8/24, they shouldn't need a 6th starter until the end of August. Burnes can suck it up and pitch on 4 days rest on 8/20; he won't need to pitch again until 8/27.
  18. LouisEly
    @Brock Beauchamp Cam Devanney
  19. LouisEly
    As I said, adaptive cruise isn't the same. Adaptive cruise doesn't work in heavy stop/go rush hour traffic.
  20. LouisEly
    This is what I'm looking at Good range (up to 350 miles), and my understanding is that the Traffic Jam Assist will keep a steady distance between you and the vehicle in front of you in heavy stop/go traffic without going gas/brake/gas/brake/gas/brake/etc. That is the #1 feature that I am looking for in a future vehicle. Going gas/brake/gas/brake/gas/etc. in heavy traffic hurts my knee and has triggered my plantar fasciitis - I've had to operate the pedals with my left foot while I try to massage the cramp out of my right foot. Adaptive cruise control, available on many vehicles, is not the same; I believe disengages if you come to a stop for more than 3-5 seconds and you need to get up to 25-30 in order to engage it.
  21. LouisEly
    This is a good point and perhaps part of the original poster's question. How do you value perhaps the most difficult position defensively versus one of the least difficult defensively? Many players get put in the OF because they aren't good enough to play in the infield, thus there tends to be more hitting talent in the OF. Does that make OFs less valuable? I don't know, it's a question.
  22. LouisEly
    I tried watching the Statcast version thinking it would be interesting and it was not a good experience. I couldn't for the life of me tell how many HRs a player had hit so far. And the whole thing languished on way too long. I would: Make the first round one round of swings only. Can't throw the next pitch until the prior pitch lands but still get as many swings as you like. Second round is two rounds but shorter time per round. I like the idea of bonus time/swings for dingers of a certain distance
  23. LouisEly
    These are good points. How do you automate a strike zone with players of different heights? I get a kick out of the box on TV because I've noticed that the top of the box isn't even at Wiemer's belt.
  24. LouisEly
    He's making over $500K in NIL from what I hear. Maybe $750K.
  25. LouisEly
    What I suspected has now been confirmed. My former company just posted my team's roles based out of Mexico City. I knew that they were building a low-employee-cost hub there and had heard that it was Sales Development Reps. Apparently my team, too. Offshoring is no longer just for blue collar jobs. If your white-collar job doesn't require external or executive communication necessitating native English-speaking or needing to be on-site, it's at risk of being offshored. I wonder what the employee engagement scores would be now. Hard to have any trust in executive leadership and not live in fear that your job is next.
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