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LouisEly

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Everything posted by LouisEly

  1. LouisEly
    Price is owed $96M over the next three seasons. Benintendi is overrated - he was only a ~2 WAR player last year (.774 OPS, not that great for a corner OF; for reference, Braun had a .849 OPS last year) and is in his first arbitration year and only has 3 years of control left, so he isn't much of a bargain. Boston is going to need to include a lot more than Benintendi to get someone to take Price off their hands. While it balances on the trade simulator, I think the simulator has Benintendi overvalued and my proposal is actually a good deal for the Red Sox.
  2. LouisEly
    If the Brewers take Price, they could cover a lot of holes. Price + Benintendi + Michael Chavis (3B/1B) + Josh Taylor (LHRP) on the trade simulator nets to about zero - send the Red Sox Corey Ray and a couple other minor leaguers, have the Red Sox throw in $10M or so... could it work?
  3. LouisEly
    Ohio State needed to run a fake punt against WI to get back in the game. Think about that. They also needed several obvious non-calls on penalties, a couple of one-handed catches, a couple of broken plays, and a dropped punt to beat WI.
  4. LouisEly
    I don't know that the Brewers ever made a serious offer for Darvish - I think they may have been just leaking it to punk the Cubs into spending big on him. Might be the case here too - they could be leaking it to punk the Reds into signing him for a big contract so that they can get the Reds to overpay and then get the guys they really want.
  5. LouisEly
    25 is pretty old for this league and as we all know by now, the PCL is a hitting haven and the juiced ball made it a joke last season. Durham is in the International League, not the PCL, and Cronenworth was almost two years younger than league average last year. If you're looking for outliers, the one that stands out is that his BABIP (which is much more relevant for pitchers than hitters) was almost .090 higher than his career average. So, he likely did get a little lucky with where his hit balls landed.
  6. LouisEly
    How big are/were those companies, and how many owners? If they aren't >$200M/year in revenue, and if they don't have an ownership group (i.e. have one owner or a simple 2-3 person partnership), then they aren't really comparable. I'd also say that little separation of personal and company finances isn't the smartest thing to do, particularly if liability issues should happen to arise. Just my opinion.
  7. LouisEly
    He had a .635 OPS and a .277 OBP with a 35% K rate and a wRC+ of 60. Why do people want him back?
  8. LouisEly
    For those who think payroll should go up, two questions: Where does the cash come from? (While an ownership stake would be creative, most people expect to be paid in cash.) How would the current owners (Attanasio isn't the only one, he's just the principal owner) who have already invested millions of dollars react to priority claims on assets (loans) or diluted ownership stake (shares issued) to raise the cash?
  9. LouisEly
    Can the Brewers spend more money on payroll because the franchise value has gone up? Should the Brewers spend more money on payroll because the value has gone up? 1) Never confuse value with cash flow. One is not necessarily a function of the other. Speculation can drive value as much, or more, than cash flow. (See: housing prices in the 2000's, stock prices in the 2000's, etc.) B) You never make money or lose money on anything until you sell it. (See: housing prices in the 2000's, stock prices in the 2000's, etc.) Discuss.
  10. LouisEly
    What a player is traded for is an input - one of many - into a player's value. The inputs changed, thus the output (value) changed. Valid, IMO. The Brewers could turn around and trade Urias tomorrow. What he was recently traded for is one of the inputs into his value, thus he needs to update the value to assess a future trade. He's simply updating the inputs, which changes the output.
  11. LouisEly
    1) Never confuse cash flow with value. Value is not always a function of cash flow. B) You never make or lose money on anything until you sell it. Just ask people who bought houses in the early/mid 2000's.
  12. LouisEly
    They are. Here's another example - look at what houses sold for in Phoenix, Las Vegas, and Florida in 2005. What did those houses sell for in 2009? Same houses. Values change as market factors change, because values are a function of market factors. Market factors are inputs, values outputs, and when the inputs change then the output usually changes too.
  13. LouisEly
    Fixed.
  14. LouisEly
    I was thinking Zack Brown and Phil Bickford, thus explaining why they were not protected. Nope. It isn't going to be for guys who are Rule 5 eligible. Because they could still be picked next week, and Seattle would get nothing. If one of those guys is included, it's going to be as a "Player to be Named Later" That assumes the trade happens before the Rule 5 draft. Nobody said that will happen. Both teams could be waiting until after, and for good reason. If they are picked, there is likely a second choice in play.
  15. LouisEly
    I don't think Brown will be because he wasn't protected. They can't add him to the 40 - it's too late - and another team could grab him in the Rule 5 draft. My guess is that this trade happens after the Rule 5 draft to see who gets picked. If Brown and Bickford aren't picked, they might be the return.
  16. LouisEly
    Depends on whether Lowrie can play 3B. If he can't, he has nowhere to play and is an expensive bench bat, and thus Familia might have more value. If he can play 3B, then that's two birds killed with one $10M stone. Speaking of the Mets and bad contracts... what would the Brewers have to add, if anything, to get Smith and McNeil from the Mets if the Brewers agree to take Cespedes (and the $29M he is owed)? The Brewers have cleared a boatload of payroll... would you spend $30M to get Smith and McNeil?
  17. LouisEly
    For what position though? As others have mentioned, eight players have played 1B for the Brewers since Braun last played 1B - I doubt the Brewers' plans are to move Braun there, so I don't see a spot opening up in the OF. Castellanos has had nice numbers, but not for 1B - Thames' numbers were almost as good and the Brewers wouldn't pay him $7.5M for one year. I don't see the Brewers shelling out that kind of money for a 1B when they wouldn't pay Thames $7.5M.
  18. LouisEly
    I posted this in another thread, but when mentioning Hamels and Lyles I noticed their 2019 seasons were eerily similar: Hamels' 2019: 27 G, 27 GS, 141.2 IP, .740 OPS-A, 1.391 WHIP, 9.1 K/9, 2.55 K/BB Lyles' 2019: 28 G, 28 GS, 141.0 IP, .767 OPS-A, 1.319 WHIP, 9.3 K/9, 2.65 K/BB If Hamels got $18M, and Lyles will cost only $6M/year, I'd jump on Lyles in a heartbeat. Especially since he is seven years younger than Hamels.
  19. LouisEly
    Yeah, I think "unload a bad contract" means Cespedes or Familia, not Lowrie.
  20. LouisEly
    Wheeler seems like a slightly better version of Nathan Eovaldi - big arm, injuries, inconsistent results. Eovaldi got a 4-year deal... not looking like a good investment so far.
  21. LouisEly
    Come on! Take off the Brewers colored glasses. Hamels has been a top tier starting pitcher in the major leagues for over a decade. Not only does he have the track record Hamels had the better season last year under any objective standard. Hamels 2019: 1st half: 17 GS, 99.2 IP, .659 OPS-A, 8.8 K/9, 2.77 K/BB 2nd half: 10 GS, 42 IP, .903 OPS-A, 9.9 K/9, 2.19 K/BB Total: 27 GS, 141.2 IP, .740 OPS-A, 1.391 WHIP, 9.1 K/9, 2.55 K/BB Lyles 2019: 1st half: 14 GS, 74.1 IP, .764 OPS-A, 9.4 K/9, 2.89 K/BB 2nd half: 14 GS, 66.2 IP, .770 OPS-A, 9.2 K/9, 2.43 K/BB Total: 28 GS, 141 IP, .767 OPS-A, 1.319 WHIP, 9.3 K/9, 2.65 K/BB By this standard, they are pretty close to the same pitcher. All thing being equal, I'll take the guy who is seven years younger, didn't fade down the stretch, and costs >$10M less.
  22. LouisEly
    They need to back the barge. I'm serious. Have Groshek as the wildcat QB, Taylor as the Z flanker who goes in motion across the formation. You can't match up speed with OSU, so don't - match up with your strength, big-boy football. Send Taylor in a jet sweep across the formation pre-snap - he will draw attention from the defense. When one of the most prolific RBs in the history of college football goes across the formation in a jet sweep, it will draw the defense. If only one defender follows Taylor, then you have Taylor 1-on-1 against a defender, and I like those odds - if it's a DB, he can overpower him, if it's a LB he can outrun him. If they have two defenders follow Taylor across the formation, it creates an extra blocker advantage on the strong side for Groshek to run behind. QB - Groshek, Z - Taylor LT - Van Lanen, LG - Lyles/Moorman, C - Biadasz, RG - Erdmann, RT - Bruss, XT - Beach, XT - Seltzner, TE - Sampson, TE - Ferguson If they sell out on the run, do what James White did and throw a short pass over the line to a TE or eligible lineman who sneaks behind the defense. It's one of the few plays that levels the playing field against OSU.
  23. LouisEly
    This would be the perfect offseason, IMO. I would be ecstatic if these were ultimately all the moves made when the dust settles. I'm kind of hesitant with Strasburg - just seems like a guy who might burn out in his early 30's. He'll be 31 next year already. Might be someone else, but I agree with the principle of going big on a SP. Not real big on Garcia either, especially for that price for a backup OF (assuming with those deals Smith 1B, Braun LF, Yelich RF). Assuming Gamel as the 4th OF, for a 5th OF/PH I'd go for Matt Joyce for a one-year, $2M deal. Over the last two seasons Joyce has had roughly a 20% K rate and 15% BB rate. Also look at Derek Dietrich as a soft platoon for Braun/Hiura against tough RHP and to rest Braun, also for 1/$2M. Dietrich had a pretty good year despite a BABIP that was .120(!) below his career average, and has a nice differential between his OBP and BA. Need some LH bats to replace Moose/Grandal/Thames/Shaw. Dietrich is your backup 2B/1B, Arcia is your backup SS/3B. Fills two bench spots for $3M less than Garcia. Use the remaining $3M to bring in a LHRP - need to replace Hader/Pom/Claudio. Same with Lindblom - need to allocate that towards LHRP. Who that is, I have no idea.
  24. LouisEly
    At one point in the 3rd quarter of the game at OSU it was 10-7. They can hang with them if they execute and effectively block Young. The strip-sacks really killed them and blew that game open - remember, both of those fumbles were in Ohio State territory.
  25. LouisEly
    Moustakas was a 3 WAR player last year, 2.5 WAR player the year before, and the Reds got him for $16M/year. Putting him in that bandbox in Cincy won't harm his numbers. He's not old by any stretch - it will be his age 31/32/33/34 seasons. Cincy is fairly RH-heavy in their lineup and they are adding some LH balance. And there is always extra value when you can improve your team and make a division opponent weaker in the same move. I'm sorry, but this is not a bad deal at all for Cincinnati.
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