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LouisEly

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Everything posted by LouisEly

  1. LouisEly
    In the history of the Packers, MLF is the first head coach to lead them to the playoffs in his first year. The Packers aren't perfect, but they've done a lot of things right in 2019.
  2. LouisEly
    Highlight and delete any and all irrelevant text before hitting the "Submit" button. Chances are that much of what you are quoting is not relevant or already has been addressed.
  3. LouisEly
    Does Kluber's team option for 2021 become a player option with the trade? Otherwise, it's a one-year deal for Kluber with a $1M buyout of 2021. If that's the case, then I understand the trade more. Cleveland is trying to get some value for a guy who, if he doesn't return to form after the injury, only has one year of control left at a hefty $18.5M. That is the risk of hanging on to him - if he doesn't return to form, they'll have to cut bait and get nothing for him.
  4. LouisEly
    One big difference - Moustakas got a 4-year deal and Seager has only two guaranteed years left. I believe I heard that if Seager gets traded the team option becomes a player option, making it likely three guaranteed years, but I believe I also heard that Seager may be willing to negotiate that if he gets traded to a contender. If that last sentence is true, then the risk for Seager is only two years versus four for Moustakas. And the info about Seager being willing to negotiate the team/player option for 2022 may not have been available when the decision to offer Moustakas four years needed to be made. Back to the original question - for a prospect, no, but for a young controlled major-league ready player who can fill a hole the next 3-4 years, absolutely.
  5. LouisEly
    Or Mitch Moreland. Or Justin Smoak. Or Derek Dietrich. Any of those four will give you similar production at 1/3rd or less of the cost. There is some credence to Belt doing better away from SF - last year his road OPS was .771 vs. home OPS of .709 (and he had a lot of road games at SD and LAD, also pitcher friendly-parks), but the splits were reversed in 2018 (home .819, road .695). Unless SF is including a major sweetener, pass.
  6. LouisEly
    Are you classifying Woodruff as a #2 based on WAR? His FIP- was in the range of a #1. WAR is a counting stat, and Woodruff missed almost two months due to the oblique injury, hindering his ability to accumulate WAR. One could argue that based on ability (FIP-), Woodruff is a #1.
  7. LouisEly
    Adrian Houser's 2019: 1st half: 19 G, 5 GS, 42.2 IP, 4.01 ERA, 9.9 K/9, 2.47 K/BB, 1.453 WHIP, .796 OPS-A 2nd half: 16 G, 13 GS, 68.2 IP, 3.54 ERA, 9.2 K/9, 3.89 K/BB, 1.107 WHIP, .656 OPS-A Let's not let a couple of bad starts early in the year when he was being yanked back and forth between the majors and AAA and between the bullpen and starting cloud judgment of his season. Once he had a regular, defined role in the 2nd half he did very well. (The three relief appearances in the 2nd half he had a 3.60 ERA, essentially the same as his ERA as a starter in the 2nd half, and a 7.2 K/9 so it's not like he had three lights-out relief outings bringing down his 2nd half numbers.)
  8. LouisEly
    Which was likely due to bad luck - his BABIP last year was .176 (a fraction of his career .295 BABIP), which was supported by his great SLG (.462) and despite the low BA still had an OK OBP of .328. If his BABIP last year was anywhere near his career BABIP, he would have had a monster season.
  9. LouisEly
    Hmmm.... lefty with mediocre track record adds a cutter which develops as a plus pitch. Who does that sound like?
  10. LouisEly
    Keep in mind, what Stearns has suggested is that Braun may spend some time at 1B, but he is not likely to be the 1B. Thus, I would not spend a lot of money on a backup OF. Remember, Braun had a .849 OPS last year and played in 144 games - he is still a very good player. The better use of that money is to put it towards pitching this year, and then corner OF if needed the following year. The top of my list for a backup OF/PH is Matt Joyce. >.800 OPS three of the last four years, >.400 OBP last year and two of the last four years, 16% BB rate and 19% K rate last year, only cost $1.35M last year. Second choice is Derek Dietrich, who could also backup at 2B and 1B and only cost $2M last year. I could get behind Dickerson, but only if he could be had for under $5M.
  11. LouisEly
    So you agree that they are comparable, but would pay one $64M over 4 years but would hard pass on the other one unless he is nearly free? He posted a .843 road OPS over the entire season last year. You don't think that going from Seattle (.738 home OPS last year) to Milwaukee will help boost his offensive output?
  12. LouisEly
    2019 WAR: Seager: 2.4 bWAR, 2.9 fWAR (in 106 games/442 PA's) = .006 WAR/PA Moustakas: 3.2 WAR, 2.8 fWAR (in 143 games/584 PA's) = .005 WAR/PA
  13. LouisEly
    In only 106 games last year, Seager was a 2.4 bWAR/ 2.9 fWAR player. I don't consider that to be league average. (For reference, Moustakas had a 2.8 fWAR in 143 games last year.) Mitch Haniger is arbitration-eligible. Maybe the Mariners don't want to pay him either. I'd take him as the offset in a package with Seager, and the only ask would be for Seager to covert the 2022 option to a team option with a reasonable ($2M max) buyout and have the Mariners send enough cash to cover the buyout. Send the Mariners Corey Ray and a couple of lower level guys (Joe Gray, Larry Ernesto).
  14. LouisEly
    I can't see a .750 OPS from a hitter-friendly Texas League and a 2.5% walk rate making a successful transition to the majors. I'd definitely be on board with Jose Rojas or Roberto Ramos, if still available. Dollars to donuts, I think both are gone by the time the Brewers pick.
  15. LouisEly
    http://forum.brewerfan.net/viewtopic.php?p=1278996#p1278996 I stand by my comments that Benintendi is overrated - in three full seasons his career OPS is just under .800, which is nothing special for a corner OF. He's a product of the East Coast prospect hype machine. Nice player but he was only ~2 WAR player last year and he is now arbitration eligible so he won't be much of a bargain. The Red Sox will need to include more than Benintendi to move Price, either in young major league ready talent or in cash. While taking on Price will be a big financial commitment, if the Brewers do, I think they can fill several holes.
  16. LouisEly
    Agreed - I'd much rather get a young, controlled, major-league ready player who can help fill 3B or SP than a prospect. Andujar would be nice. Urshella will be 28 already next year, and only walked 25 times in 476 PA's. The Brewers might be able to both get a potential TOR and fill other holes if they take Price from Boston. Boston really wants to get under the cap, and not many teams can or will take on Price's contract. Michael Chavis could fill 3B nicely, and I think the Brewers could extract more than that.
  17. LouisEly
    Then I assume you are against the election of Marvin Miller and the 30 executives, 22 managers, and 10 umpires who are in the hall of fame? That's why they are in. Just because that isn't the test to get elected doesn't mean they can't be elected if they have an impact on the history of baseball. There is a difference. Can I ask what the difference is between: a) "you can't tell the history of baseball without mentioning that person" and b) "they have an impact on the history of baseball"
  18. LouisEly
    Gregorious hasn't played in more than 134 games in a season since 2016 on top of coming off of Tommy John and a .718 OPS season. Pass on him at $14M/year.
  19. LouisEly
    One implication that hasn't been discussed yet regarding playoffs: If you were projected to be a high NFL draft pick, would you be likely to play one extra game with the chance of playing for a national championship? Would you be likely to play two extra games for a shot at a national championship? What would the likelihood be, and the effect of, projected high NFL draft picks pulling out of the playoffs because of the extra game? One out of four, you have a decent shot at a national championship. One out of eight... now what are your chances, and is the risk worth it?
  20. LouisEly
    There already is a bye week. The national championship game isn't until January 13th. 3-6 seeds play on Jan 1st, semis a week later, national championship a week after that.
  21. LouisEly
    Then I assume you are against the election of Marvin Miller and the 30 executives, 22 managers, and 10 umpires who are in the hall of fame? That's why they are in.
  22. LouisEly
    Yep, we'd just be arguing about which two loss teams that don't deserve to be there should be included.
  23. LouisEly
    If Tim Raines is in the HOF for what he did from 1981-1987, then Fernando Valenzuela should be in the HOF for what he did from 1981-1987. Not his fault that Lasorda ran him into the ground throwing so many pitches at such a young age. If the test is if you can't tell the history of baseball without mentioning that player, you sure as heck cannot tell the history of baseball in the 1980's without mentioning Valenzuela. Not just performance, but what he did from a cultural standpoint in LA in reviving the Mexican community's interest in baseball is rivaled by very few pro athletes.
  24. LouisEly
    Yes. And a blanket an "afghan." Are you my long lost cousins?
  25. LouisEly
    Someone please tell Ian Kenyon.
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