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LouisEly

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Everything posted by LouisEly

  1. Kipnis's OPS the last three years - .715, .704, .705 (.756 vs RHP in 2019). In no way, shape, or form should that be considered for any type of 1B role, even as a soft LH platoon.
  2. It's very possible that for the $18M that Grandal is getting paid the Brewers could get Lyles and another quality SP or Gregorious (assuming Lyles gets $5M-$6M and the other $12-$13M). That could easily offset the theoretic WAR loss of Gandal. Add in the $6M the Brewers paid Anderson last year, and they can get Lyles and a very good/possible TOR SP for an estimated $19M-$20M/year. Thames salary brings Pomeranz back. Albers salary brings a backup LH catcher. Knebel and Wahl come back from injury. With a bullpen of Hader, Knebel, Pomeranz, Suter, Black, Wahl, Guerra, Claudio they don't need a TOR starter and can get by with 5+IP starters. I think that could be a better overall roster than last year.
  3. A majority of their things, yeah. But for the category (cheap fast food), I have them with the best double cheeseburger (both full-size and the value menu), way better than McDonalds and edging out Wendy's and In-N-Out. And the Crossandwich - again, for the category - is way better than McDonalds' breakfast sandwiches.
  4. The exception to that rule is the Malort one. Because if you've ever been duped into having a shot of Malort, you know that's exactly how you react.
  5. I recall hearing that most universities (I think all public and about half of private) do not take into account the value of a family's home when applying for financial aid. If true, then it might be best to pay off the mortgage first before putting anything into a 529.
  6. The reason you don't see him show up much is because he isn't playing a lot of snaps. He only played 16 of their 64 defensive snaps last week. The reason he isn't playing a lot of snaps is because he is playing behind the Smiths, who are fourth and seventh in the league in sacks. He's also playing fewer snaps than Fackrell; before the criticisms of Fackrell come out, Fackrell is their coverage OLB, and last year Fackrell led the league in sacks per 100 pass rush attempts - he drops back in coverage a lot more than you think. I think Gary has been lining up on the interior on passing downs the last few games, which gives him fewer opportunities to make plays, but the main reason is because he isn't getting a lot of snaps because of how good the Smiths have been. And that's a good problem to have.
  7. Was a weird year - the guys you thought were good bets at the beginning of the season had disappointing seasons (Brown, Ray, Webb, Sanchez), and then some guys came out of almost nowhere (Bickford, Hummel, Topa) to force the issue. I don't know how many they'll protect, but I think my pecking order would be: Z. Brown Bickford Sanchez Ray Feyereisen Hummel QT-C Erceg (potential to switch him to the mound) Webb I could see the Brewers protecting most of them. I could see the Brewers protecting none of them. With only 33 on the roster right now, I think they add four and leave three spots for free agents. Could easily dump D. Guerra or Perdomo to open another roster spot or two for a FA. Need to add two FA SPs and a corner IF, maybe a C. Dark horse is Justin Topa. He was hitting upper 90's last year. I think the Brewers were trying to hide him by not assigning him to the AFL. Edit: Duh, totally forgot about Feyereisen. Though it is odd they didn't let him pitch at the end of the year when Biloxi was in the playoffs, so maybe they were trying to hide him with the intention of not protecting him. Also, for every bit that AAA hitters stats were inflated last year, AAA pitchers stats were deflated, thus I'm a bit higher on Brown and Sanchez than most.
  8. I've been saying it for a long time, amazing things happen when you run and fake the jet sweep. Keeps the OLBs and safeties from crashing the box, opening up the middle, and if they do crash the box it opens up the outside for the sweep. No coincidence that Taylor had a whole bunch of 10+ yard runs up the middle after they ran/faked it a few times. Also no coincidence that Coan could have arguably his worst game of the year and they still score 37 points.
  9. I think part of the "pushing college" thing comes from parents who watched the local factory jobs dry up and move away and thought that they were trying to help their kids avoid being in that situation. The trades weren't thought of as being that lucrative because of the volatility of booms/busts in the economy and 20+ years ago more people could do basic plumbing/electrical/drywall/etc. The statistics say that the unemployment rate for college educated people is much lower than those with just a HS education. It's fear of a worst-case scenario.
  10. Before he even swung the helmet or ripped it off, Garrett yanked Rudolph up off the ground by his facemask. Could have had a serious neck injury just from that.
  11. Lots of good points being made on all sides in this thread. My $0.02: 1) Everybody's frame of reference is their own personal experience, which is going to be different for many people. B) My frame of reference is that I went to a high school that had no advance placement courses, no honors classes, and my class had a dropout rate of almost 25%. And no internet. How the hell was I supposed to compete for scholarships based on ACT scores? My family didn't have a lot of money, but I knew that the state of WI had a program where if you finished in the top 1% of your class you could go to any state school tuition-free. I busted my ass in high school - and took a lot of crap from people who resented me doing well, and because of no honors classes I had to sit in the same classes with them all damn day - and got that scholarship. I was making six figures by the age of 31. I made a lot of sacrifices to get there, including moving to places where I knew nobody. I forced myself to get better. I forced myself to understand finance and investing (and because of that, I knew the recession of 2008 was coming back in 2006.) If people complain about their situation, the first questions I ask are what sacrifices have you made and what are you doing to educate yourself to the reality of the world? If the answers are anywhere close to "not much", you can guess how much sympathy I have. C) Every generation has been sold a bill of goods. For Millennials, it's student loans. For Boomers, it's that pensions and Social Security would be there to take care of them and that they could life a decent life with a decent wage and raise a family. While Millennials have no money, Boomers have been screwed out of billions of it by investment scams, telephone/internet scams, companies/pensions being wiped out, and the recessions of the 70's, early 2000's, and late 2000's. Boomers put everything into their home, and then either lost it to a recession or divorce. Speaking of divorce, Gen X's bill of goods was the Brady Bunch. Who the hell grew up in a house like that? We were lucky to live with two parents (who weren't yelling at each other), lucky to come home from school to one, and lucky not be held as barter between both of them. Oh, and many of our fathers came home from Vietnam - or lost friends there - and took that frustration out on us, just as Boomer's parents who served in WWII took it out on them. D) As to why college is much more expensive now, the official line from UW-Madison is that funding from the state has drastically decreased over the last 20 years. Funding from the state used to cover most of tuition; now it only covers maybe 1/4th, if that. Most of UW's funding - according to them - is privately generated, and UW-Madison is very close to being able to qualify as a private school. According to them.
  12. Dude... what dorm and floor? I was Wellers, 3rd floor. Do we know each other??
  13. I thought initially it was one of the Smith's and then Fackrell completed the tackle. That OL almost pushed him across, which somewhere I thought that would be a penalty. The guy physically bear-hugged and spun him forward. That which I thought we were penalized earlier this season for? I think in a pile pushing forward is fine, but physically hands on and doing so wasn't allowed? Oh I wasn't near my laptop when it happened but King certainly was pushed off worse than Lazard's Off PI and not called. They acted like it was the footing, but 3yards of separation happened by the pushoff. I think it *used* to be a penalty? Or maybe it actually is a penalty and just never gets called? In any event I didn't expect a flag as you never see them call that carry. When he did I personally thought CMC broke the plane, but there was just no way to tell for sure. I'm glad they did not rule it a touchdown on the field as I am certain it would have remained a touchdown. Wasn't a penalty earlier this year when Dalton Risner grabbed Phillip Lindsay and yanked him into the end zone, so I assume it isn't a penalty.
  14. Fair enough, but I don't think they need to get more innovative - they just don't seem to be using plays that have been successful in the past when Chryst was the OC, namely the jet sweep. Even just faking the jet sweep keeps the OLBs and safeties from crashing the box on the inside run plays and opens up the inside run. The play that sealed the win against Iowa last year - the fullback misdirection/end-around - to the best of my recollection hasn't been used since. Another play that was a staple with Chryst as the OC was lining up two WR outside on one side and then a quick pitch for a WR screen - another play that keeps the safeties and OLBs from crashing down on running plays. The pistol formation I don't get at all - running is much more effective from the power-I. They have an effective offense but they do little to set up plays for later in the game.
  15. The question then becomes do you think Minnesota has more talent than Wisconsin? I sure don't. Talent is similar, but their offensive coordinator and offensive game plan is light years better.
  16. Yep, Citrus or Outback. Projection right now is that Citrus/Outback will be some combination of Wisconsin/Penn State/Minnesota vs. Florida and Alabama/Auburn loser, with whoever wins Big Ten West going to the Rose Bowl and Ohio State in the playoff.
  17. Pretty much how I feel. No need to get destroyed again by OSU, and if Minnesota beats OSU then there's a much better chance that Florida State opens up the checkbook for Fleck.
  18. It depends on where in the time zone you are. For eastern WI, you're on the eastern part of the Central time zone (changes in Indiana/Michigan), so the sun will rise earlier and set earlier than if you're in the middle of Nebraska, where you're on the western edge of the time zone. I spent a summer in Lincoln, NE, and it would still be light until 10pm. Having two time zones would amplify the problem. The sun would rise and set about two hours difference between NYC and Dallas. The curve of the Earth is why there are time zones.
  19. The latter, yes. The former, not looking that way so far. Happ's ability to distribute the ball and create open shots for others is underappreciated.
  20. [sarcasm]5'8" guys play real well at 1B too.[/sarcasm]
  21. The 2017 draft is really haunting them. Smith-Schuster and Kupp taken right after Josh Jones, Golladay taken shortly after Adams. The problem is that there are a lot of positions to fill and only three day 1-2 draft picks. Bulaga is a FA after the season and Bak after the following season - I think they have to invest in OT somewhere early. Blake Martinez is a FA after the season and they have nothing behind him - where do they go LB? If one of the QBs slides (Herbert, Eason, Fromm), do they pull the trigger? Nelson, Jennings, Cobb - all 2nd round picks, Jones a 3rd. Doesn't have to be a 1st rounder to be effective.
  22. Fangraphs had Pina as a 1.1 WAR player last year with only 179 plate appearances. This has him with double the playing time he had last year, so quite possible. Catching league-wide is pretty bad offensively, and defensively he's pretty good.
  23. 2019 Thames: .247/.346/.505, 116 wRC+ 11.1% BB, 30.5% K 2019 Abreu: .284/.330/.503, 117 wRC+, 5.2% BB, 21.9% K If the Brewers didn't bring Thames back, why would they be interested in pursuing Abreu at more than double what Thames salary would have been? Yeah, Thames isn't good versus LHP, but Abreu had just as big of splits last year between RHP (.777 OPS) and LHP (1.008) as Thames did (.877 vs. RHP, .679 vs RHP), and 70% of pitchers in the league are RH. Every one of the Cardinals starting pitchers last year is RH.
  24. He was 0.6 years older than league average in A-ball in 2018 when he put up a .942 OPS. In AA in 2019 he was one year younger than league average.
  25. This is what I was thinking. Braun plays his 125 or so games at 1B, Grandal plays about 35 at 1B and catches the rest. Improves OF defense by putting Grisham in LF.
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