LouisEly
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Everything posted by LouisEly
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His major league career prior to this season was at the ages of 22 and 23. It's pretty darned impressive to even make the majors by age 22. Santana's minor league career OPS is .859, but the "oldest" he was at any stop in the minors was -3.4 years to league average, up to -5.6 years to league average. I think some are discounting how young Santana has been at every league he has played in. For Santana + Ortiz + Ray, I'd expect another piece to come back with Archer.
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Do the majority of MLB teams value players based on surplus value? Do any MLB teams value players based on surplus value? I'd bet that the majority of MLB teams in the top half of payroll pretty much just care about runs scored and runs given up and not so much how much they have to pay for it.
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I posted this in another thread, but the Brewers do not need to give 5-year deals to any SP. They will have a ton of upper-level depth: Majors: Anderson, Davies, Woodruff, Hader, Suter, Wilkerson AAA: Houser, Burnes, Ortiz, Derby, Perrin AA: Peralta, Ponce, Yamamoto, Medeiros Then add Nelson back in the mix in 2019. I think it makes much more sense to trade for a starter that has 1-2 years left on his contract - or take a couple of flyers on guys coming back off of injury (Tyson Ross, etc.) - than to give a big free agent deal. There will be plenty of competition for starting spots in 2019 and beyond.
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Who has played their last game as a Brewer?
LouisEly replied to Est1970's topic in Milwaukee Brewers Talk
Sogard's second half OPS was a Yadiel Rivera-like .586. For his career he's a little better against RHP, but still only .648. I'd rather have DeJesus as a backup and find a LH starter in FA/trade (i.e. Walker). -
Men who pee in a toilet when perfectly functional urinals are in the same (private or semi-private) restroom. If there is a long line for the urinals, maybe, but if you have to poop the last thing I want is to have to clean your splatter off of the toilet first. Use the damn urinal.
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With Nelson's injury I'd be shocked if Woodruff doesn't make the club. Anderson, Davies, Woodruff, Hader, Suter, Guerra, and Wilkerson are the only internal options with any major league experience right now. Not a lot to choose from. I do agree with the ROY eligibility standard.
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Agreed, but I would be surprised if they brought in more than one or signed a FA SP to a long-term (3+ years) deal. They will have quite a bit of depth to draw from next year: Majors: Anderson, Davies, Woodruff, one or both of Hader/Suter, Wilkerson AAA: Houser, Burnes, Ortiz, Derby, Perrin AA: Peralta, Ponce, Yamamoto, Medeiros Then in 2019 you add Nelson back into the mix. Because of that, I don't think they need to bring someone in for more than a one or two year deal. I don't know who that is. I agree that they will explore trades, but I don't know who that could be. I keep going back to Samardzjia - hard to believe he led the NL in innings with 207. Yes, there is age/salary risk and he has three years left, but because of that he shouldn't cost a lot in prospects. As for anyone younger/cheaper than Samardzjia, if they can unload some of the glut of OFs and not have to package any of Woodruff/Hader/Burnes for pitching that would be ideal.
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While not a free agent, Marco Estrada can probably be had from the Jays for the proverbial "bag of balls"/low level prospect. Only one year and $13M left on his contract. Started 33 games, pitched 186 innings, struck out 176; walks were higher than his career average, H/9 above career average. Despite the ERA, Estrada was a 2.2 bWAR and 2.6fWAR player last year. Pretty much worth his salary. Not ideal, but I think better than giving someone like Cobb 3/4 years at $13M+/year (Lynn will easily get 4/$60M) or trading a bunch of prospects. If he can get his walks down to his career average the HRs won't hurt as much and he can be closer to his 2015/2016 form. If he's a bust, he can at least eat innings and then bring up Houser or Burnes/Peralta/Ortiz after the Super 2 threshold. Again, not ideal, but IMO better than a multi-year free agent deal. I think they just need a starter for one year until Nelson is hopefully healthy and Houser/Burnes/Peralta/Ortiz can step up in 2019.
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For years the Brewers had nothing for bench bats; now that they have a couple people complain about taking up a roster spot. If the Brewers have a good OF bench bat people complain that he won't get enough AB's and should send him down to AAA to get regular playing time. If the Brewers had a good non-1B infield bat... we wouldn't be having a conversation about who will play 2B. What two 1Bs take up in rosters spots is made up by Perez who can play seven positions. If the Brewers keep both Brinson and Phillips those two can play all three OF spots, freeing up the need to keep a 5th OF. As for FAs, if the Brewers bring back Swarzak they will have almost a full bullpen with a possible need for just a 2nd lefty: Knebel (closer), Swarzak (setup), Hughes (setup/MR - he's never been a closer so he won't get big money in arby), Jeffress (setup/MR), Barnes (setup/MR), one of Hader/Suter. If they keep seven, then either Taylor Williams or a 2nd lefty for the last bullpen spot. If they want eight relievers, pencil in Williams and find a 2nd lefty.
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You could make that argument, but run differential also includes the failed Feliz, Milone, and Espino experiments, and the complete implosion of Wily Peralta. None of those players will be on the roster moving forward. Replacing them with Knebel, Woodruff, Hader, Taylor Williams, and perhaps Swarzak who has said he really wants to come back, is a different talent level.
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And that's why I said #5 starter. (And he was 3rd in the Southern League in strikeouts, and had a higher K rate than Allard and Soroka.)
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Matt Garza - Significant Trade Asset??
LouisEly replied to Jose Cardenal1's topic in Transaction Rumors & Proposals
I'm sure Swarzak is going to take the best deal available to him. I doubt it's the Brewers. The Brewers can go out and get Garza for a couple million instead of five million and then release him two months into the season next year. Swarzak said publicly that he "loves it here" and wants to come back. I think the chances of him being a Brewer next year are better than you think. -
Hell, for half of that time there were 10 or fewer teams in each league, 20 or fewer in all of baseball.
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Mariano Rivera didn't regress much from his first year as the closer at age 26. Knebel will also have another year of experience and will better know what to do in certain situations, what hitters will do, etc. BABIP is much more relevant for pitchers than hitters; if a hitter strikes out a lot, he will have a high BABIP. And will Phillips even be the starter? What if Brinson is the starter? And won't a Phillips/Brinson platoon be better than Broxton? Arcia improved significantly over last year; at 23, why wouldn't he continue to improve? Anderson learned a new pitch and now has a four-pitch repertoire. Comparing his historical stats to now isn't really that relevant. His BABIP will likely regress some, but how much will that really matter? So what if it goes to .285? He also pitched this well the 2nd half of last season, so it's more than just one year of numbers - it's more like 1.5. He improved his K rate from last season, decreased his LD% and hard hit %, and increased his GB%. If you decrease your LD% and hard hit % you can give up fly balls and not give up HRs.
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Between tonight's game and the playoff 7-inning no-hitter, I'm not sure what Wilkerson needs to do to get a chance as the #5 next year. Barring any trades it looks like Anderson/Davies/Woodruff/Wilkerson, and one of Hader/Suter with the other in the bullpen. Behind them they'll have Houser, Burnes, Peralta, Ortiz, and Perrin for depth at the upper levels. Jungmann is another option, but the fact that they didn't bring him up at all speaks volumes; he's out of options, so I think he's gone. I don't see any reason to go out and spend a ton of money in free agency on a pitcher. If they can trade for one and eat some salary (such as Samardzjia, etc.) so that they don't have to give up any top prospects that's a very viable option.
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Colorado pulled their starters early (Blackmon only 2 ABs, Arenaudo only one) and LeMahieu didn't even start at all. Can't say because they lost today that they would have lost if they had something to play for. Regardless of whether the Cards didn't start DeJong/Carpenter/Pham, holding them to two hits over seven innings is pretty darned good. No reason not to pencil Wilkerson in as the #5 for next year. Barring any trades, the rotation for next year looks like Anderson/Davies/Woodruff/Wilkerson and one of Hader/Suter. They'll have Houser, Burnes, Peralta, and Ortiz waiting in the wings if one of them falters/gets hurt, with Nelson possibly back in August/September.
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Davies over Nelson and Chase Anderson for pitcher of the year?
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I put their ages this past season in parenthesis. Aren't guys in their early/mid 20's supposed to get better? Aren't guys supposed to be in their prime from ages 28-31? Other than Sogard, why would you expect a lot of regression? And how much impact will a regression from Sogard have?
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Matt Garza - Significant Trade Asset??
LouisEly replied to Jose Cardenal1's topic in Transaction Rumors & Proposals
The problem is that for $5M you can't get more than a decent set-up guy, and that's on a multi-year deal. The fact that they didn't call up Jungmann speaks volumes. Derby is Blazek with a lower BB rate but higher HR rate. -
Anything but the Packers (and the draft) has been dead to me for years. Close to a decade. Can't remember the last time I watched the Super Bowl; might have been when the Packers last won it.
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He had a long way to go to get it. Wasn't exactly hit right at him.
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Seriously? You are going to blame it on the defense? You expect Thames to make an over-the-shoulder catch halfway into right field? The sun is so tough that Phillips couldn't even pick up the ball, much less expect Santana to pick it up all the way into the right center warning track.
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Cobb is a nice pitcher but since missing a full season his strikeouts dropped from in the 8's per 9 to in the 6's per 9. We would be signing him at age 30 (he's never hit 200 innings in his career) and moving forward. That'd not terribly old but it is heading to the wrong end of it. I just would hate for us to go out at sign some 30+-year-old guy and we trek down the same path we have been on when trying to fill out our rotations. It really handcuffs a lot of the moves you can make. Not completely dismissing Cobb but just something to think about when we bring up guys like him. Cobb is a 30-year-old Matt Garza. Numbers are eerily similar. Cobb's 2017 FIP vs. Garza's career FIP are almost exactly the same, both have the same career K/9, Cobb's 2017 HR/9 is slightly higher than Garza's career HR/9, and Cobb missed almost two years with injury. His ERA is pretty, but the peripherals say he isn't as good as his ERA, and definitely has injury risk.
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A couple of things to keep in mind: 1) For those who think the league has figured out Thames, his OPS in September prior to tonight's game was 1.051; yes, that has been predominantly against RHP, but most pitchers are RH. For those who say he has been nothing outside of April, his OPS the last three months of the season have been .861, .692, and 1.051. At the least, it suggests that a Thames/Aguilar platoon - at $5.5M - will be very productive and financially hard to beat. B) For those who want to sign a free agent SP, anyone who is significantly better than Garza will cost a lot in both years and $$. For those who want to sign Cobb... he's a 30-year-old Matt Garza. Look at the numbers. Cobb had a 4.17 FIP this year (Garza's career 4.10), his career K/9 is exactly the same as Garza's (7.3) and has dropped significantly since coming back from injury (6.4 this past year), his HR/9 this year (1.1) is higher than Garza's career (1.0), and he missed almost two full years with injury (something Garza's never done). Cobb had a nice ERA this year, but the peripherals say it isn't accurate. Signing Cobb to a multi-year deal would essentially be signing another Garza. 3) For those wanting to trade Santana, he put up a .864 OPS and 2.8 bWAR/3.0 fWAR as a 24-year-old. This is coming off of a half-season with a .792 OPS as a 23-year-old. He is on the verge of becoming a star. If they trade him, they better get a lot for him.
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What is terrible about TT is his long-standing belief that guards and interior OL are replaceable. The only time he has ever drafted one before the fourth round was in 2006 when they were in dire straits and drafted Colledge and Spitz. Letting Lang walk a year after cutting Sitton without investing a reasonably high draft pick in the position is not smart. No one could predict having your top five OTs go down with injury. As for Spriggs, people wanted to run Allen Barbre out of town in 2009. Eight years later, he's still in the league.
