LouisEly

If that's the price for Quintana, I hang up the phone and talk to the A's about Gray or the Giants about Samardzjia or Moore or the Marlins about Straily or even Volquez.

The Giants could flood the starting pitching market, and they wouldn't be expensive to get. Jeff Samardzjia's ERA doesn't do his peripherals justice - in 105 innings he's given up 107 hits, walked 13, and struck out 117; he's actually given up more HRs (16) than walks (13). His FIP is 3.38 and his xFIP is 2.94. He's owed significant, but not crippling, money - $19M/year over the next three years. The Brewers could easily take that on, and by taking it on, would not have to give up top prospects. He has age and financial risk, but that will be reflected in what the Brewers will have to give up to get him (which is not much). Being signed for three more years the Brewers could deal him this offseason or next and still continue the rebuilding. Matt Moore has less age and salary risk, but has performance/injury risk - he's having a down year, driven by irrational splits vs. LHB (OPS-A of 1.143 vs LHB). He has two team option years remaining; there are performance escalators but nothing that guarantees either year, so the Brewers could cut bait with a low buyout if he continues to pitch poorly or is injured. It would be nice though to have a lefty starter to neutralize the Cubs left-handed bats. All the Giants had to give up was a B- prospect (Fox) & a C+ prospect (Santos), both a long ways from the majors, plus a young utility player (Duffy). The comp might be Diplan & Lara plus Cordell, with the Brewers likely only having to give up two of them. Giants also have George Kontos to help shore up the bullpen, but many around here will trash that idea because he only throws 90. (Has an outstanding high-80's cutter.) He's been a solid reliever for four years, and isn't a FA until 2020.

The White Sox have 32-year-old Melky Cabrera as their primary LF and nothing in the minors for OF prospects besides Robert, and he's a ways off. They have pitching prospects in Kopesch, Giolito, Lopez, Fulmer, Hansen, etc., so OF prospects might have more value to them; yes, some pitching will need to be included, but I don't think it has to be the centerpiece. If they ask for more than Ray (#2), Ortiz (#4), Cordell (#16), and Orimoloye (#26), I hang up the phone and talk to Oakland about Gray. (Or if they ask for more than Brinson/Diplan/Bickford/Cordell, but I really want to trade Ray now.) I'd part with Brinson and Ray if it means not giving up pitching.

The Oakland A's have 36-year-old Rajai Davis manning CF, 32-year-old Matt Joyce in RF, and nothing for OF prospects. They have Sonny Gray, only 27 years old and arby-eligible next year, along with bullpen pieces Madson, Casilla, and Doolittle to deal. Brewers are loaded with OF prospects - Brinson, Phillips, Cordell, Ray, Clark, Harrison (and 24-year-old Santana). Not all will develop, and if they all do, there won't be room for all of them. They will have to deal some of them eventually. Ray, Cordell, Orimoloye, two lower-level pitchers (Diplan? Peralta? Bickfod? Medeiros? Supak?), throw in Wily Peralta (plus some cash to pay his salary) for a change-of-scenery as well as Wilkerson, for Gray, Madson, and Doolittle. Buy out Gray's two arby years and sign him to a 5-year deal through age 32/33. Using MLB.com's prospect rankings, that's the Brewers #2 (Ray), #11 (Diplan), #12 (Bickford), #16 (Cordell), and #24 (Orimoloye) plus Wily Peralta and Wilkerson. I don't think it will be expensive to acquire them as Gray will likely get eight figures in arby, and Madson and Doolittle combine for over $11M in salary next year. Madison is pitching well, but at 36 and making $7.6M/year you don't have to give up a lot to get him. Doolittle is effective against both lefties and righties and has team options in 2019 and 2020 (at $6M and $6.5M), so they could have him for up to four years. You aren't mortgaging the future for this year because you'd have Gray for five years, Doolittle for up to four years, and Madson is signed through next season - they could trade any of those guys in the offseason and still stick to "the plan". There won't be room for all seven of those OFs; they have to trade some of them eventually. You keep the big 4 pitching prospects (Hader, Woodruff, Ortiz, Burnes) plus Brinson. Future is still bright, still sticking to the plan.

Averages are essentially useless for forecasting without standard deviations. The x-factors that will determine the outcome will be injuries (can't predict) and trades. The Cubs starting rotation is their big weakness, but I can easily see a trade of Schwarber to an AL team (where he can DH) for a starter. I'm more worried about the Cardinals because of a better rotation. Their starters have been lucky injury-wise, having only missed one start the entire season. The A's have 36-year-old Rajai Davis manning CF, Matt Joyce in RF, and nothing for OF prospects. I don't know if I'd give up Brinson, but the Brewers have Phillips, Cordell, Ray, Clark, and Harrison to swing a deal for Sonny Gray, and could toss in Madson and Doolittle to shore up the Brewers pen. That would change the outlook dramatically.

Brewers have $5.25M to spend, so they have ~$2.1M left plus I believe a 5% overage cushion (~$260K) without getting penalized but I could be wrong on that.

With Helena back in action, it seems odd that Lara is still in Appleton. After a hot start, Feliciano has cooled off considerably (.531 OPS in June, now down to .666 for the season). Orimoloye down to .659 with a .279 OBP. Feliciano's numbers are still very respectable for his age and position, but if Orimoloye goes back to Appleton next year he will be essentially league average age. I personally think that within one year of league average age is for all intents and purposes "league average", and someone has to be at least two years younger than average (like Feliciano, he's three years younger) for me to consider him "young". I also believe it's not just age, but the number of years of professional coaching a player has that should be taken into consideration. College players don't get nearly as much coaching as professional players the same age do - there are restrictions on how much practice time they can have in-season and out-of-season. Just because a college player is a couple of years older doesn't mean that he's maxed out in terms of development.

Not picking on you specifically, but the general reaction by many to closers. Mariano Rivera has a career ERA of 2.11 - he gave up two earned runs every nine innings. It will happen. The best closers in baseball aren't perfect. Don't expect 1-2-3 innings, don't expect to not ever give up any earned runs. It's the performance over an entire season.

Exactly, and thanks for being a grown-up about it. Stearns takes risks with the bottom part of the 40-man; sometimes it pays off, sometimes it doesn't. Cravy in 2016 in MLB (yes, small sample): Starter: 10.50 ERA, 1.25 K/BB, 1.282 OPS-A Reliever: 0.81 ERA, 2.13 K/BB, .452 OPS-A Cravy in 2017 at AAA (yes, small sample): Home: 10.95 ERA, 0.80 K/BB, 2.351 WHIP (12.1 IP) Away: 0.00 ERA, 3.25 K/BB, 0.837 WHIP (14.1 IP)

Yes, he was on the DL. Likely pitched hurt or got hurt on the 8th.

I don't know that Burnes would be able to pitch enough innings this year where it would be worthwhile to burn an option. I'm guessing his innings limit this year will be somewhere around 130. The Brewers only have to cover 10 more games until the All-Star break, and Sunday July 9th can be a bullpen day if needed. You can slot Hader in, Blazek and Jungmann have been pitching well as of late, and Wilkerson has been pitching well at AA. They can carry you for a start or two until the break, and then Woodruff should be healthy shortly after.

ASAD, what has Cravy done in the last couple of days to warrant being outrighted? if your comment is in reference to the frustration he expressed within earshot of the media after being sent down at the end of spring training, outrighting him now is not time to do that as an example. If you've ever had any training on personnel management and discipline, any discipline should always be immediate or ASAP, not three months later. Enforcing discipline months later (unless there are collectively bargained rights for a process for discipline, as there are in many union occupations) is worse than not doing it at all. In the end, Cravy was right - as we saw, keeping Milone, Marinez, Jungmann, and Feliz was the wrong move. Not to rehash old news, but I want guys on my team who have a spine and get pissed off when they don't get something they feel they deserve. I want guys who have a fire in their belly. I don't want guys on my team who are passive and just sit quietly and don't care if they get screwed out of $2500/day.

That's what cell phone video is for!

QT-C now has 61 Ks in 40.1 IP. Won't break my top 25, but might break the next 10. Solid LHRP prospect.

No responses... The answer is: 1) Jimmy Nelson (2nd round pick) 2) Travis Shaw (acquired for 3rd round pick Tyler Thornburg) 3) Keon Broxton (acquired for 32nd round pick Jason Rogers) Despite the botched 1st round pick, to come out of that draft with those three players (directly or indirectly) is a pretty good draft.

Can we start a negativity thread where people can post irrational negativity about things that haven't happened yet?

Quiz #2 - who are the three Brewers on the team currently that are a direct or indirect result of that draft?

Major league debut for Brewers 2010 21st round draft pick Kevin Shackelford. The seventh player from that draft to make the majors. Quiz - who were the other six? And can you name them without looking?

The wind blowing out is making him walk everyone? That has been the real problem is the walks. If he just gave up a few HRs that is completely different. Of course that park hurts some but he has had success in it in the past and he has never been this good on the road before. Not to mention most of the PCL is hitter friendly, not just that park. There is almost certainly some sequencing at play here as well. I can't believe you guys are nitpicking this. Have you ever pitched, or done any athletic activity that requires balance, in 20-30 mph winds? I have a hard time staying balanced on the tee box when winds gust like that. All it takes is for the wind to knock your balance off just a little bit, and boom, there goes your control and command.

Or Suter. We have multiple options in the bullpen to eat up innings while Hader steadily increases his pitch count/work load. [sarcasm]I want Suter to start, for if no other reason than to get him to 50 innings by the time the next Top 25 prospect vote takes place.[/sarcasm] (Reillymcshane, if you can conveniently forget about that for a month or so that would be great.) Carlos Martinez, Lance Lynn, Chris Sale all spent their first season in the majors in the bullpen and it didn't hurt their development at all.

Easy to say when you aren't the one dropping $28mil a year for him. It is a giant risk to take on that much money at his age and with all the innings pitched. The Brewers payroll this year is $60M. They could easily take that on. The more money they take on, the less in prospects they have to give up. Seems like a win-win.

Why not stand pat and make trades in the offseason? No one is a FA; everyone is under control or contract for next season. Garza hasn't been great but if he can continue what he's done since coming off the DL last season he's a bargain at $5M next season. No one is saying buy (unless it's an OF prospect for young, controlled talent at another position). Just ride the waves, see where things are in four weeks. And they're exactly that - waves.

The Cardinals won the World Series in 2006 after winning 83 games in the regular season. It's not probably, but it's possible, so R-E-L-A-X and enjoy the ride.

[sarcasm]Yep, no team ever goes through a tough stretch except last place teams. Pack it up on June 28th, season's done.[/sarcasm]

First place?