But the return in trading Greinke was still 3 young players who might've panned out but haven't There are a few around here that very vocally (writtenly?) pine for the cycling of talent and trading away players once they near free agency/cross the 30-year-old threshold/etc. The Brewers did exactly this with Grienke... and the prospects didn't work out. That happens. Look at what the A's got when they traded Holliday to the Cardinals - two recent first round picks (Brett Wallace, Clayton Mortensen) and a recent 2nd round pick (Shane Peterson), and not one of them worked out for the A's. Yes, even Billy Beane fails on trades. This is why I don't believe in the "continually cycle talent" theory - a certain % of prospects will not pan out, and eventually the well will run dry. People point to the Rays, but much of their success and talent was due to top-3 overall picks (Price, Longoria, and Delmon Young who was traded for Garza who was traded for Archer). You have to have money to re-sign your top players and take on contracts. Look at St. Louis - would they have won all those World Series if they weren't paying Wainwright, Carpenter, Holliday, and Molina well into their 30's? Would they have been to those World Series if they weren't able to take on the contracts of Carlos Beltran, Rafael Furcal, Lance Berkman, and others? Would they have made it without paying over-30 pitchers in Jake Westbrook and - gasp! - Kyle Lohse? They didn't win those World Series with a team full of under-30 players (and some who were under 30, such as Molina, had already signed big long-term contracts). I think one of the things that hurt Melvin was how poor the overall talent level was in the 2003 and 2004 drafts, the two years that the Brewers had top-5 picks. There was no Kris Bryant or Mark Prior there in 2003, no Buster Posey, Mark Teixeira, or Zach Grienke there in 2004, and they also had to balance signability because there was no protection for unsigned picks until 2010. Once MLB implemented protection for unsigned picks in 2010, the drafts got much better: 2010 - Nelson and Thornburg are among the top 4-5 players drafted in those rounds, and Covey was a well-documented systemic (not Brewers) failure; 2011 - Jungmann, Lopez (the Bradley pick was not protected as it was the Covey pick from the prior year), 2012 - Coulter, Taylor, Roache is still only 23 (and Wagner in the 4th); 2013 - Devin Williams, went upside with Neuhouse (and Taylor Williams in the 4th). The 2009 draft was a failure at the top, but that year they had two things going against them - lots of people in new positions (their amateur scouting team had been raided), and no protection for unsigned picks. If there was a mistake, it was to give McFarland extra $ to sign in 2011 but not a couple hundred thousand more to Rodon instead. No one is saying Melvin was perfect. But let's acknowledge that he didn't have the advantages that a lot of those "top-10 organizations" have.