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LouisEly

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Everything posted by LouisEly

  1. LouisEly
    I'm very skeptical of projecting based on a small sample of innings played in the Cape Cod league. I know it is a higher level of competition, but it still is a small sample. Jed Bradley looked great in the Cape, but hasn't done squat. A good friend of mine played in the Cape Cod league but didn't even get drafted.
  2. LouisEly
    Remember, the reason Yuni B was signed was because of injuries. Had Green and Gamel been healthy, Gonzalez would have been the backup SS and Green the backup 2B/3B/1B and BF.net would have saved 50 pages of Yuni handwringing.
  3. LouisEly
    They haven't released them yet; they have just waived them, similar to waivers after the trade deadline. If they clear waivers they have the option of accepting a minor league assignment and staying with the organization or becoming free agents. This is the perfect time to do this, and probably a strategic move too. All teams are probably under a roster crunch with having to add guys back who were on the 60-day DL and figuring out who to protect from the Rule 5 draft so right now the chances of getting claimed are probably the smallest. Because they were waived another team would have to claim them and add them to their 40-man roster and there probably aren't many 40-man slots open now. Green I hope is back - they could use his left-handed stick and defensive flexibility. But like others have said, you have no value if you're not healthy enough to play.
  4. LouisEly
    Some people don't understand that a 4.00 ERA is a solid #3 starter (4.00 ERA ranked #79 among pitchers with >120IP in 2013). Estrada had a lower ERA than Lance Lynn, Tim Hudson, Jarrod Parker, Trevor Cahill, Matt Cain, Mark Buehrle, Jake Peavy, R.A. Dickey, Tim Lincecum, C.C. Sabathia, and Edwin Jackson this year, and was only 0.05 behind Matt Garza. Estrada also had more K's than Jered Weaver despite starting three fewer games than Weaver. Only two players who had more K's than Estrada this year pitched fewer innings than he did. The Brewers don't have a #1, but they have a #2 (Lohse), a potential #2 (Peralta), and two #3s (Estrada, Gallardo). Between Thornburg, Burgos, and Fiers they should be able to find a competent #5 with the other two plus Hellweg, Nelson, and Pena developing in Nashville. I don't think the cupboard is nearly as bare as people think.
  5. LouisEly
    Remember, Toronto's carryover pick from last year isn't protected this year so they will have to be conservative with that pick and lean towards signability. History isn't on our side with the #12 pick - Jungmann, Mike Jones, and can anyone name the other without looking? Who knows what could have been with Jones had the Brewers not jumped his innings from 33 as an 18-year-old in 2001 to 138 heavy innings (62 BB and 135 K) as a 19-year-old in 2002. Maybe a more gradual increase (90 innings target in 2002, 120 in 2003) and he doesn't get hurt. My early favorites are Sean Newcomb (LHP, U of Hartford), Ti'quan Forbes (SS, HS), and Luke Weaver (RHP, FSU). Newcomb has low miles on his arm for a college pitcher but walks are kind of high (good IP/H/K ratios). Weaver has excellent IP/H/K/BB ratios playing against better competition, but HRs were a little high. Forbes has really high upside. I don't know that the talent that will be at #12 is that much different than that at #7.
  6. LouisEly
    Giants need a leadoff hitter and an upgrade over Blanco. They just extended Pence, so they are not rebuilding. Not sure what they think of turning LF over to Kieschnick though. They could market Aoki to the large Asian community in the Bay area. Rays need a leadoff hitter. Not sure if they want to go to Arby's with Matt Joyce; if not they need another OF. Aoki's low cost would appeal to them. Baltimore desperately needs OBP and a leadoff hitter. McLouth only made $2M last year, so if Baltimore can get him back for a similar number they may view that as better than giving up talent for Aoki.
  7. LouisEly
    If Milwaukee loses today and Toronto wins the Brewers finish with the 10th pick. Toronto will have picks #11 and #12.
  8. LouisEly
    2011 - 2.89 ERA, 193 IP, 146 H, 175 K, 1.026 WHIP 2.93 ERA for LA after the trade to the Dodgers in 2012
  9. LouisEly
    Because Nelson has already pitched 30 more innings than last year, so another 20 innings puts him at 50 more innings than last year which puts him at additional injury risk. The reason they lose the tiebreaker is because the Brewers have a tougher strength of schedule than those teams. The Brewers aren't a 90 loss team - they just play in the toughest division in baseball. Same as Atlanta isn't a 95-win team; they get to beat up on the Marlins, Phillies, and Mets instead of playing St. Louis, Cincinnati, and Pittsburgh. From 1997 through 2007 the Cardinals drafted and signed only two impact starting pitchers - Dan Haren and Jaime Garcia - and they traded Haren for Mark Mulder, who had one decent year for them and then went to pot. Didn't stop them from winning a World Series in 2006. (They drafted but didn't sign Max Scherzer and Ian Kennedy, so you can criticize them as much as the Brewers for not signing Rodon and Arrieta.) Don't forget Max Scherzer, who was drafted #11, exactly where the Brewers are sitting now.
  10. LouisEly
    Need another lefty, but that's it. Maybe two - I wouldn't be surprised if we find out in a few weeks that Gorzy is hurt more than they thought and needs surgery.
  11. LouisEly
    You were close on the Dodgers, but had the wrong pitcher - Josh Beckett. Beckett is owed more than Weeks so the Dodgers will have to throw in salary or prospects. He had neck/shoulder surgery in May so he will have plenty of time to rehab. The Brewers get their veteran starter on a one-year deal. Weeks + Ramirez to the Dodgers for Beckett + Chris Reed + lower level pitching prospect
  12. LouisEly
    Slight correction - if the Braves were in the NL Central playing the Cardinals, Reds, and Pirates instead of the Mets, Phillies, and Nationals they would be a .500 team. For chrissakes, the Brewers starting pitching has dominated the Braves this year.
  13. LouisEly
    When talking about his trade value, his prospect ranking is very relevant. Whose prospect ranking? Baseball America or any other media ranking is completely irrelevant. The only thing that is relevant is the potential acquiring team's prospect ranking and perceived value/upside.
  14. LouisEly
    St. Louis, Cincinnati, Pittsburgh, and Chicago also padded their stats against Houston in 2012. Milwaukee wasn't the only team with Houston on their schedule.
  15. LouisEly
    I'm curious why you think that. His first full season in the minors he had a .897 OPS, his second minor league season he had a .948 OPS at Brevard County (which for a RH-hitter, with the wind blowing in from LF there, is almost unheard of; for comparison, Braun, in a similar # of ABs there, posted a .784 OPS) before being promoted to AA, and in his 3rd minor league season posted a combined 1.055 OPS between AA and AAA. For his minor league career he's averaged a .392 OBP and a .506 SLG, but that's come down this year because it took him a while to shake off the rust from sitting on the Brewers bench the first month of the season. Not sure if it is because he was a 7th round draft pick, but he has put up both OBP and SLG at every stop in the minors. I like him, but even if Braun moves to RF it creates a very RH-heavy lineup. I think if you can get a young high quality 3B or SP for him you make the deal. If the D-Backs are in fact looking for RH corner OF power and Matt Davidson is blocked by Martin Prado for the next three years I think that's a good deal for both clubs. David Holmberg+ would be a good trade for both too.
  16. LouisEly
    If Kolek and Jackson are off the board when the Brewers pick, I'm wondering what people think about doing something similar to what the Royals did last year. If no one available really stands out and the next 10-15 guys on the board have similar upside/talent/projections, go with a guy who will sign for $600-$800K below slot and use that later in the draft to get a first-round talent who slips into the 2nd or 3rd round. If all goes well Beede improves his control but if not could be that type of player. A guy who also intrigues me is Luke Weaver of Florida State. In 98 innings last year he gave up only 78 hits, struck out 119 and walked only 19. HRs were a little high (5, which may scare off the Brewers), but they say he took a step forward with Team USA and has been hitting 97. If they can sign Weaver for below slot and Medeiros slips into the 2nd because of his height, they could come out of the draft with Weaver, Medeiros, and use the balance pick on a guy like Flaherty, Marshall, Shannon, or another first round talent that slips. Forbes and Gatewood intrigue me too and I'll be interested to see how they develop this year.
  17. LouisEly
    I won't be satisfied until Andy Pettite personally calls Yankees season ticket holders and apologizes for juicing.
  18. LouisEly
    trwi7, where are you finding that signing bonus info? What did Bailey sign for and what did Rogers sign for? IIRC, there was significant risk that Bailey wouldn't sign. With no draft pick protection, the Brewers franchise couldn't afford to not sign a top-10 pick given the state of the franchise and lack of talent in their system. Drafting a player is one thing, but signing him with the rules (or lack thereof) in place at the time was a whole different story (see: Alex Fernandez, Kenny Henderson). Certainly Verlander and Weaver were the prizes of that draft, but according to WAR the rest haven't accomplished much more than Rogers. Bailey (6.2 career WAR), Humber (1.0), Niemann (4.1), Sowers (1.6), Townsend (0 - never made majors), Diamond (-0.4), Bray (2.4), Purcey (0.1), Elbert (1.3), Lambert (-0.8 - yes, the Cardinals whiff on drafting first round pitching too), Perkins (6.2), Hughes (6.7), Waldrop (0.5), Tankersley (0.7). Not much there, and I think that was one of the reasons the Brewers didn't develop any "aces" and drafted hitting - the years they had high draft picks were poor years for drafting pitching.
  19. LouisEly
    Bani, if you're on the first base side you sit 4 rows in front of me and my friends who share a 40-game plan. I've probably seen you. Same with me - I get 10 games and sell half of them so the 5 games I go to cost hardly anything. I will not likely be going in on a plan next year though but that is because I will probably not be within driving distance of Miller Park.
  20. LouisEly
    Lintz is an example of why I'm hesitant to say that it's the Brewers scouting and talent evaluation that is the cause for the lack of homegrown pitching. Lintz had all of the talent in the world - striking out 155 and walking 21 in 75 innings of HS ball. But, demonstrating the big risk of HS players, the lack of maturity of an 18-year-old with $900K in his pocket caused him to get in his own way and not embrace the coaching he was given. Same with Jeffress - high upside, but immaturity caused him to get in his own way. I don't know if you can hang that on the scouts.
  21. LouisEly
    Not sure where to put this, but even in a down year Ramirez still has the highest OPS of any 3B in the NL Central and I don't think an argument can be made that he's not the best. The only one who is close is Alvarez, and his poor defense (most errors of any player in baseball regardless of position this year and last year) negates some of that OPS. Freese, Frazier, and Valbuena are all almost .100 lower in OPS. When I expand to 275 PAs Ramirez ranks 9th out of 28 ML 3B in OPS, and in a down power year for him because of injury his SLG ranks 11th out of 28. Point being, I think some have unrealistic expectations of him and he is better than some think. And if the Dodgers don't win the World Series this year, I think it will be easier to trade him and bring back more in return than some people think too.
  22. LouisEly
    With hitters getting bigger/stronger (whether through weightlifting or chemicals) pitchers feel they need to throw harder/pitches that put more strain on the arm to get them out, more strain = more injuries. I'd be willing to bet that the average major league pitcher today throws a lot harder than pitchers in the 70's or before. Actually, I know they do - I remember when I was a kid any pitcher who threw 90mph was throwing gas. Now that's a soft-tosser. Now you have to throw 90+ just to get drafted. Young pitchers try to dial up the fastball a few ticks more to get noticed/drafted, or throw more curveballs to get strikeouts, and thus more strain on the arm at an earlier age.
  23. LouisEly
    Just a note, with Weeks out for the season Gennett will certainly eclipse the 100-125 AB prospect limit by the time of the deadline (Labor Day) so he is no longer eligible. Since Scooter has 99 ABs right now and Kh. Davis has 77 I will make the decision that Gennett is not eligible for the list but Davis is. Gindl is still eligible as well. Thornburg is still eligible as well (62 career IP, 20 appearances - I believe the limit is 100 IP or 30 appearances). I believe 27 is the age limit, so Wooten and Hand are eligible too.
  24. LouisEly
    My $0.02: 1) Should every pitcher who ever threw spitballs or hid an emery board or sharp object in their glove to doctor the baseball be forced to give back every award they ever won, forfeit every playoff series their teams ever won, and renounce their enshrinement in the baseball Hall of Fame? Should every hitter who ever corked a bat or took "greenies" to get up for a game do the same? Isn't doing those things essentially the same thing as what Braun did - "cheating" or using drugs to enhance performance/be able to play better? If the answers to those questions are "yes", then a lot of rewriting of baseball history needs to happen. Cheating in one form or another has been a part of baseball since the inception of the sport. He cheated, he admitted to it, we move on. B) Braun should be forced to hold a live, unrehearsed press conference the same day that Garciaparra is forced to hold a live, unrehearsed press conference with a blown-up photo of that SI cover next to him. For those who think Braun has been juicing since high school, how come Garciaparra looks more ripped on that cover than Braun ever has? Braun was tested more than any other player in 2012 and despite that had one of his best years; I doubt testing standards regressed from 2011 to 2012 so that fewer substances were detectable. 3) BruisedCrew is quickly becoming one of my favorite posters.
  25. LouisEly
    Lets please keep this to discussing Khris Davis and not about the state of the franchise, trading Aoki, the 2014 roster, the 2014 rotation, or anything else that there is already a thread on and discussion ad nauseum. I've said that if Davis was able to play RF he would have already been playing there in the minors. Braun has been in LF since before Davis was drafted. I also think that one of the Brewers problems has been that they are too RH-dominant and need more LH balance. I hope that Davis keeps this up, and that the Brewers can flip Davis for pitching or a young 3B prospect. And since Davis isn't eligible for arbitration until 2016 I think they can do this.
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