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LouisEly

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Everything posted by LouisEly

  1. 1) I'm tired of hearing the injury risk argument. I hate this word but it is a straw man argument. There isn't enough room on this board to list the pitchers in their early, mid, and late 20's who have gotten injured. It can happen to any pitcher at any time. Strasburg is a much bigger injury risk, but that's not going to stop someone from handing him $100M when he becomes a free agent (if he makes it to 2017 without getting injured again). B) Yes, it is a risk for the Brewers to hold on to him longer because anything can happen. But you have to take risks in order to increase rewards. It's also a bigger risk for another team to acquire him now than to wait until less years/money are left on the deal. The longer they hold on to him, the less money and years on his deal, the less risk for another team to acquire him, the greater the return the Brewers will get. K-Rod got a guy who was given mid-first round money to sign, and the Brewers gave up a mid-first round pick to sign Lohse. If the Brewers hold on to Lohse and trade him next year for another Delmonico who was a mid-first round pick or given mid-first round money to sign, they will in essence get their first round pick back. The Brewers haven't given up anything for Lohse until they let him go - then evaluate what, if anything they got in return, and compare that to a mid-first round pick.
  2. Not to mention pinning a guy with the vague "make-up issues" tag two months into his professional career without any further details or supporting evidence is completely reckless. Williams hasn't pitched well? 6.9 H/9 and 8.7 K/9 for an 18-year-old is poor? And since when is a 21-year-old "too old" for A-ball?
  3. Hopefully the shoulder situation explains the performance, but shoulders are more difficult to fix and come back from than TJ surgery.
  4. I'll disagree - look at K-Rod and what the Brewers got for him. The less money that is owed a player, the less risk in acquiring him, the more return you get in a trade. Look at the distribution of payroll and resources among teams. You have the Yankees/Dodgers/Angels/Red Sox and to a lesser extent Phillies and Tigers that will offer a top free agent pitcher $100M+ and not even blink. Then you have the next tier of the Giants/Rangers/White Sox/Blue Jays and to a lesser extent Cubs and Cardinals who will offer a guy $50-$75M and not even blink. The rest of the league knows they can't compete with that, so what if those teams need a good arm to get them over the top? Lohse on a 2-year, $22M contract the way he has been pitching suddenly looks like a bargain. You can't get a guy of that quality as a free agent for only $22M, and two years limits the risk. One year and $11M looks even better. This year the problem was competition. Despite the added wild card team, there were few teams competing for playoff spots. The NL Central practically has the two wild cards locked up. The NL East is just about over - Washington is 11.5 games out of first and 8 games out of the wild card. Arizona is five games out of the wild card and facing a Dodgers team that is red hot, getting their injured players back, and has a ton of payroll. I think Arizona was conservative in acquiring players because they felt they had little shot at catching the Dodgers or the wild card. In the AL Cleveland doesn't have the resources to acquire payroll and probably doesn't think they can stay with Detroit, thus their only acquisition was a guy the Cardinals DFA'd. Many of the big payroll teams - Yankees, Blue Jays, White Sox, Angels, Nats, Mets, Phillies, and Giants, the type of teams that would take on payroll to put them over the top - aren't in contention, thus no demand. As other have said, in the offseason when more teams think they have a chance, demand will be greater and thus returns will be higher.
  5. Monty, looking at what the White Sox got for Peavey, would you have been happy with that as a return for Lohse? I would not have been. Melvin has also said before that you can get more value for position players in the offseason than at the trade deadline. You are assuming that the reason only K-Rod was traded was because Melvin thinks he can compete next year; how do you know it wasn't because all that was offered was junk? If all that is offered is a middling prospect or two that has a low ceiling and projects to be replacement level at best, then what's the point of making the trade? If you think you can get more for Lohse and others by waiting until the offseason or next year when those guys are owed less money, they why not wait? Arguably the best prospect return in a trade this year was what the Brewers got for K-Rod, and this is probably because of how little monetary risk there was in acquiring K-Rod. Yes, there is some risk that the players may get injured or drop off if you wait, but if you are going to get a higher return you have to take more of a risk. The only way to truly restock the farm system is to take higher risks that lead to higher rewards. Trading for low-ceiling prospects is just the same as drafting low-ceiling prospects. Low risk/low reward moves aren't going to do it. As for the Cubs/Pirates, they have had high draft picks for so long that they should be good by now. That's the whole point of the draft system - let the worst teams draft first so that they can get better players and become better teams so that it isn't the same teams winning/losing every year. The system is designed to be cyclical.
  6. If this is what the Brewers would have gotten for Lohse I would have been very unhappy.
  7. http://host.madison.com/sports/college/football/badgers-football-tanner-mcevoy-absolutely-fine-after-mugging/article_a8b94c0b-9191-57b6-9196-74c4eaa86927.html While this article is about Badgers QB Tanner McEvoy getting mugged and his cell phone and watch stolen in downtown Madison (less than 10 blocks from where I live), according to sources in Dane County law enforcement this is not an isolated incident. People are driving around looking for someone with a smartphone and they pull up to him, jump out of the car and mug him. Doesn't matter if the phone is locked or if you have GPS locators, they take it to a chop shop where it is disassembled and sold for parts. Jewelry too; according to my sources the average amount of time a pawn shop holds on to jewelry before melting it down is 14 hours. Apparently if they melt it down they don't have to give it back. A little disturbing that this happened less than 10 blocks from where I live, and that they targeted a guy who is 6'6", 220. Makes me think twice about wearing one of my nice watches when I walk to/from the restaurants/bars in downtown Madison. I do walk past the courthouse though - always police presence there - so that's probably a bit safer. But you may want to be careful about taking out your cellphone at night.
  8. Between this and your avatar, I wonder if we were separated at birth...
  9. There is NOTHING I enjoy more than late come-from-behind wins against the Cubs. Well, maybe late come-from-behind wins against the Cardinals.
  10. It has been stated that because Gallardo and Lohse have annual salaries less than a qualifying offer they may have more trade value after the season than at the deadline. IF that's the case then you can't fault Melvin for not pulling the trigger, especially if all that's being offered is a couple of guys with low ceilings who don't project to be much more than replacement level. Hold on and wait until the offseason when you can get a better offer. Now that there are pool limits and penalties for going over draft and international bonus pool limits, salary dumping doesn't make much sense because you can't funnel those salaries toward developmental prospects. No sense selling low on anyone; if nothing but crap is being offered, then wait until you can get something of value being offered. No one knows what DM is being offered, if anything, for Axford, Gonzalez, Lohse, etc. I highly doubt he is turning down Top-100 prospects left and right because he thinks he can compete next year. He has said that any trades he makes will be to help the team "2-3 years down the road". If a trade can't help the team down the road, no sense in making it.
  11. 1) There's a difference between "not bad" and "good". B) With the bonus pools and penalties for going over pool limits for the draft and signing international free agents it's not like they can redirect those funds towards signing developmental prospects, unless there are young players in Japan or Korea they want to target (and based on what Darvish signed for, they will cost just as much). The only way outside of maxing out the draft and international pools to acquire young talent is to sign free agents and trade them for prospects. The Selig's don't own the team anymore, so if Mark A. is OK with spending the money that's fine with me.
  12. Had the Orioles right, even if it was for the wrong player. Word is that the Brewers have had scouts watching Dodgers and Diamondbacks prospects the last few days. Still have a day and a half...
  13. Heath Bell has a 2015 option year of $9M that could become guaranteed based on performance (likely games finished), so acquiring Axford, who would be under Arizona control for 2014 and their closer instead of Bell, could save Arizona $9M in 2015. Axford has a lot more value to Arizona than you think.
  14. Nine players on the roster were born in Latin America, including Segura, Peralta, and Gomez. I think they can communicate with Yuni just fine.
  15. No one has even mentioned the 4 years & $83M still owed Jayson Werth or the 4 years & $68M (possibly 5 years & $85M) still owed Andre Ethier. People who think Ramirez & Lohse's contracts are bad need to read this thread.
  16. There were reports of Brewers scouts watching Arizona and LA Dodgers prospects the last few days, but no reports of watching Tigers prospects. The Tigers didn't match up very well prospect-wise with what you could expect for a reliever; the Dodgers and Diamondbacks are much better fits for the Brewers needs. Now they pit those two divisional rivals up against each other which can drive up the price. Axford for a David Holmberg or Magill/Reed/Stripling would be much better than Vasquez.
  17. And these young guys need guys in the clubhouse to show them how to handle a long season like this, or any 162 game season. Lots of ups and downs in every season, and the young guys need to be shown how to deal with it. And do you really think that Josh Prince, with a career minor league OPS of .670, is going to be better than Yuni?
  18. Actually, yes. By carrying 13 pitchers and only 5 infielders they need someone who can play every infield position. Halton can't play SS, probably can't play 2B, and given his size would probably be worse defensively than Yuni at 3B. From what I hear Yuni is a really good clubhouse guy - always smiling, always happy, keeps things loose. In a season like this they probably need that in the clubhouse.
  19. Yes, I am knocking it and yes, I know a lot about it. The son of a very good friend of mine is training to be a MMA fighter at Tito Ortiz's training school in Huntington Beach. Not knocking the fighters - they train very hard and they are definitely athletes. But any activity where the goal is to beat the crap out of another human being, to me, is not a sport. Any activity where participants are allowed to take PEDs and then attempt to beat the crap out of another human being is something I have a lot of issues with. Just my opinion. That, and I lived in Southern California for seven years and can do without the whole Affliction culture.
  20. Remember, DM also said he was "not motivated" to trade Lyle Overbay. All that means is that he hasn't gotten a good enough offer yet.
  21. He will very likely pass through waivers in August, extending his trade deadline to August 31st. All it takes is a key injury (just look at what happened to Hudson) to the right team with a desperate owner/GM, and you never know what will happen.
  22. Someone earlier asked why the list only had baseball players and not anyone from any other sport: http://espn.go.com/espn/otl/story/_/id/9508288/biogenesis-whistleblower-broke-open-scandal-says-ncaa-mma-nba-other-athletes-used-clinic-mlb-investigation There's the silver lining - the more names from different sports that come out, the less bad it's going to make Braun look. IIRC though, MMA allows juicing as long as it is done by a licensed physician. (One of the many reasons I don't watch that "sport".)
  23. Maybe not a jersey trade-in, but have some professional sewers on hand and offer to take Braun's name and number off of the jersey and put another number/name on. People won't feel like they wasted money, the Brewers only have to pay for the labor, and no jerseys end up in the landfill. I like the idea of County Stadium prices night. Every weekday game for the month of September. I'd really like to see him up the ante on Fan Appreciation Night. Since I have tickets.
  24. DING DING DING, We have a winner! You realize that was posted after the announcement was made, right?
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