LouisEly

Burgos scratched from rehab start - still has shoulder stiffness

The question isn't if Rendon can play 2B, the question is if Zimmerman can stay at 3B. Lately he has been getting Steve Sax Syndrome messing up relatively easy throws to 1B. Zimmerman is last among qualified 3B in fielding % (Reynolds and Ransom, while not qualified, have a slightly lower fielding %) and tied for first in errors among all positions with Alvarez. I could easily see a Ryan Braun move to LF (Werth likely moves to 1B in 2015 when the Nats can buy out LaRoche for $2M, making room for Goodwin/Perez in the OF).

Without looking, I'll say Glenn Braggs... ... nope. Ages in each season were right, but not him. Amazingly the Brewers kept Braggs in rookie league all season despite a 1.189 OPS.

Two things have made trading draft picks even possible - protection for an unsigned pick w/a comparable pick in the next year's draft, and the bonus pool spending limits. Prior to that there would have been high incentive for low revenue teams to dump top picks for whatever they could than spend millions on a prospect that may or may not ever amount to anything. The rich would have gotten even richer. Then again, trading picks may have prevented the debacle known as Matt Bush. Part of me still thinks that pick was a statement by the Padres to MLB that things needed to change. I think baseball is generally conservative and wants to see how the bonus pool rules play for a few years out before considering trading picks.

I'm sure Razo doesn't have a big fastball, but in 89 IP he gave up only 66 hits and one HR (12 extra base hits total), striking out 79 (walks a little high at 32). I know that the bats are different now, but the Brewers seem to be focusing on college players who don't give up many HRs. His teammate, Dan Savas, is intriguing; in 100 IP gave up only 65 hits and struck out 98 and is 6'5", 220. RS SO, must not have been draft eligible as he wasn't drafted to my knowledge.

Knowing that this was the pick the Brewers could have had for Sabathia had the Yankees not signed Teixeira (or had Sabathia been ranked ahead of Teixeira, which he should have been), makes me sick.

Jungmann - 4 H in 7 IP and a 16:2 GO:FO. Worms tremble when he takes the mound.

You hit the nail on the head; there is risk both ways. When you have a limited payroll you have to take some risks that guys without a long track record of success will continue to produce so you can have them under contract for a few years for less than market value. If you wait until they produce for a few years to see if their production is a mirage, if they continue to produce then they price themselves out of your range because a bigger revenue team will offer them more money (Fielder, Sabathia, etc.). If you keep trading them for prospects, then you run the risk that 1) the prospects won't pan out (not all do) or get injured (Hudson, who was supposedly offered for Fielder, re-tore his elbow ligament in his rehab start the other day and has to have surgery again; meanwhile the Brewers still have Coulter and Haniger), or B) casual fans become apathetic thinking that there is no commitment to winning or get turned off when the team keeps trading their favorite player after they spend $100 buying that player's replica jersey. We saw the surge in ticket sales when the Brewers signed Lohse; it wasn't because casual fans want to see Lohse, it is because they were sitting on the fence wondering if the Brewers would make an effort to go for the playoffs this year before purchasing season ticket packages. Bottom line is that there is much more risk involved in running a limited payroll team. And before we gush about the Cardinals, remember that they have 31 year old Wainwright committed to almost $100M over the next 5 years, 33 year old Holliday committed to $51M over the next 3 years, 30 year old Molina committed to $58M over the next four years, and signed Craig to a $30M extension with less than 1000 career plate appearances under his belt. They also have $17.5M tied up on the 60-day DL between 38-year-old Carpenter and 35-year-old Furcal. They take risks with contracts too.

Not someone in the Brewers system, that's for sure. I'll guess the guy drafted immediately after Eric Arnett... ... nope, but his numbers are pretty close to these. Now I'm depressed.

I'm thinking three things here. First, looking at this statement, I'm wondering about supply/demand. Factoring in all of the above, how many guys might there be nationally who profile similar to your friend (RH, similar size/height, similar or better stuff or HS kids who project to have similar or better stuff)? How does that number compare to the number of draft spots used on RH pitching (40 rounds x 30/round x 50% pitchers x 70% RH ~ 420 RH pitchers)? What's the supply/demand for his profile? Second, when it comes to negotiating, a general rule of thumb is whoever throws out a number first loses. When they asked what he would sign for, did he ask them any questions like: *What have you signed pitchers for who are similar to me? *Money aside, where would you draft me based purely on ability? Asking these questions might give you an idea of what they are thinking as to how much they would be willing to sign you for. That's your starting point. Part of negotiating is to give things that have little cost to you but high value to them. I mentioned this earlier, but if he was willing to sign for $40K then he could say, "If you draft me in rounds 7-10 I'll sign for 30% of slot value so that you'll have more bonus pool money to offer earlier picks." You're not giving up much (you'd sign for $40K anyway), but you're giving back value to them (more bonus pool money for earlier picks) which may give them a greater incentive to draft you. Third, it never hurts to get feedback. Try calling up the people he talked to and say, "I'm disappointed I didn't get drafted. What were the things I needed to do better in order to get drafted so I can work on those next season?" See what they say. Maybe there's something you didn't anticipate. Remember, the scouts who saw him aren't the only scouts for those clubs. There are other scouts pulling for "their guys" to get drafted too, so maybe the scout could give you some feedback about what the people above them thought and why they went with other guys. Look at who those teams drafted. It's a learning experience, but it can also be motivation. Hopefully he puts himself in a position where teams would be crazy not to draft him next year.

Find your mojo Fiers... and bring it back to Milwaukee. Find the strike zone just a little more often Pena, and you'll be in Milwaukee too.

Are Fox's camera's a little out of focus or is it my TV?

I was devastated. First time in my life I was absolutely shocked by something. Thomas was my favorite player. And I made damn sure that my parents took me to the game when he came back in 1986. I remember him getting a curtain call in that game... after he struck out. If you've been on this site long enough you've seen me post about the Curse of Gorman Thomas. I don't think it's a coincidence that the Brewers haven't been to the World Series since.

Hillis sounds nasty, put up HS-like numbers (37 IP, 15 H, 66 K). Hopefully better coaching at the professional level can help him develop his offspeed pitches. Command is a bit of a concern for Johnson, but only gave up 52 H in 77 IP and zero HR in 275 ABs. Mankato's website says Matheson is a redshirt freshman (?) - are DII players eligible after two years? Wonder if he was hurt or a medical redshirt last year given how few innings he pitched (17.2), but the results were good (6 H, 21 K). In his only start gave up 1 H in 6 IP.

Not really. A high 3rd round slot is >$700K, the Brewers 3rd round slot was $584K, and a late 3rd round is almost $500K. That's not peanuts; I'd find it hard to pass that up for college. The purpose of the new rules is to level the playing field for teams; the MLBPA agreed to it because their thought was that if teams give big signing bonuses to draft picks it will lessen the amount they will spend on major league players and payroll. The MLBPA doesn't give a hoot about draft picks or minor leaguers, they care about the members of their union and trying to get them as much money as possible. I think the new rules are mostly good, but if they want to make it about truly selecting the best players available I'd make two changes: 1) Allow one round 1-10 draft pick "exemption" where teams can spend up to $500K over slot and the overage does not count towards the bonus pool. This should help reduce the number of players who don't get drafted in the first 10 rounds due to "signability". 2)Require a minimum offer of 40% of slot value for round 1-10 draft picks. This should remove the farce that some teams have made of rounds 6-10 picks where they select college seniors who will sign for virtually nothing to have more bonus pool money to spend on earlier picks. If a team has to offer at least $50K to a 9th/10th round draft pick they aren't going to waste it.

That's the point of this forum - for people to express their own perspective. Like I said, I agree with you that the Brewers should have gone LHP in round 3 or 4, but neither of us knows what the signing demands were/are for the higher upside pitching available then and what Williams and Neuhaus signing demands are and what that will likely leave remaining in the Brewers signing bonus pool. Who's to say that these college pitchers aren't going to develop into the next Doug Fister, Daniel Hudson, Brandon Webb, Jonathan Papelbon, or Tony Cingrani? Hillis sounds nasty, put up HS-like numbers (37 IP, 15 H, 66 K). Hopefully better coaching at the professional level can help him develop his offspeed pitches. Command is a bit of a concern for Johnson, but only gave up 52 H in 77 IP and zero HR in 275 ABs. Mankato's website says Matheson is a redshirt freshman (?) - are DII players eligible after two years? Wonder if he was hurt or a medical redshirt last year given how few innings he pitched (17.2), but the results were good (6 H, 21 K). In his only start gave up 1 H in 6 IP.

Exactly how I'd describe guys drafted in the 5th round or later who became impact players in the majors. We're talking about the 7th round here. Guys like Allan Craig and Khris Davis are nice, but they are also very limited defensively and to an extent defensive liabilities. You can load up on those guys in the draft but someone has to play CF and those guys can't. Guys with speed and a strong arm (like Garcia) who have plus range in CF can save almost as many runs as guys like Craig and Davis can create with their bat. I can't tell you how many times I've been wowed by Gomez's ability to track down balls in the OF that I did not think would be caught. The best thing you can do for pitching is to put plus defenders in premium defensive positions (CF, SS, C) behind them. If Garcia can develop into a backup OF/defensive replacement/pinch-runner at the major league level, that's a win for a 7th round pick.

My point is that very few pitchers come out of HS or college meeting that criteria, and the few who do go early in the first round. Beyond that you have to develop those criteria - that's what the minors are for. I can name a 5'9" CF who didn't put much time in the weight room (or on the treadmill) and became a Hall of Famer with a career .837 OPS and barely cracked 200 career HRs. I can name another 5'11" outfielder who finished his career with 135 HR and is in the HOF with a career .847 OPS and over 3000 hits (and probably didn't spend much time on the treadmill either). Power isn't the only important tool to have.

Interesting note on Astin, the scouting report says "relies on low-90's sinker". He only gave up one HR in 340 ABs, and only 10 extra-base hits (9 doubles, 1 HR) of the 85 hits he gave up. 75 singles, 9 doubles, one HR. Pretty good for the SEC. Taylor Williams in 105.2 IP gave up only 83 hits, struck out 110, and walked only 18. Against 394 batters he only gave up one HR as well (16 doubles, six triples). I like that these guys don't give up HRs. Means they keep the ball down.

Jean. Freakin'. Segura.

I do think that there are some around here who think that just because a guy is a college player that means he is a low ceiling/high floor player. Using the example mentioned, Magnifico is a guy who threw upper 90's even touching 100+; yes, he was a reliever, but that's a guy who if he can develop two at least average secondary pitches has tremendous upside. That's not a guy I'd call a "low ceiling" pick, especially for the 5th round. Who knows, maybe he hasn't gotten good coaching on how to throw a curve/slider/change and with professional coaching could develop. Uhen regularly worked at 94 (at 6'4" and only 185 lbs) and touched 97; no offense to anyone at UW-M but I highly doubt he is getting the best pitching coaching there. Look back in history at the 4th round on... few draft picks even make the majors, much less turn into impact players. If those guys turn into solid ML relievers I'll be happy because that's a better outcome than 90% of draft picks in those rounds. Guys like Hellickson, Moore, etc., are by far the exception and not the rule; for every one of those guys there are 15 Charlie Fermaints. (Remember when everyone was excited about him because he was "potential" 5-tool player?) In the last 20 years the Cardinals have not drafted one single impact pitcher in rounds 4-8 (the best of the lot - take your pick between Mitchell Boggs and Blake Stein). The rules have changed. You can't give big signing bonuses to HS kids in the 4th round on. You only have $X amount of bonus pool to work with. If you want HS guys you will have to draft college seniors in rounds 7-10 and have pre-draft agreements for them to sign for $25K or less to free up an extra $450K to sign earlier picks. I'll agree with TheCrew that I'm disappointed they didn't go for LHP in round 3, but I can't criticize the picks since then. Maybe Seid's cryptonite is the first round, but he's done pretty well from the 2nd round on.

Last year the Red Sox drafted college seniors in rounds 7-10 who they called before the draft and asked if they would sign for $1000 so that they could allocate that slot money towards earlier picks. I'm not sure that's a bad strategy. I hope that Cooper and Ratterree had pre-negotiated deals for well below slot value to do the same thing. Astin, Williams, and Uhen will not be easy signs - while they are college players they are juniors so they have some leverage in going back to school to try to improve their stock. The fact that they are relievers helps mitigate any potential arm abuse (i.e. 130 pitch outings) heaped on starters by college coaches. Wagner, Goforth, and Magnifico have all transitioned from college relievers to starters fairly well so far. Uhen is coming back from TJ surgery in 2011 and at 6'4" 185 he still has room to fill out and add on to his already big fastball (regularly 94, touches 97). The question with Uhen is if he can develop his secondary pitches. Looking at the history of 4th-5th round picks and their success rate in even making the majors much less becoming impact players, I would be very happy if either of them turned into a solid major league reliever. Guys like Jeremy Hellickson are by far the exception, not the rule.

If the Brewers go HS in the 3rd, then expect them to take a bunch of college seniors in the 7th-10th rounds who will sign for less than slot to free up some extra bonus pool money to bring these guys in the fold. I'd like to see a LHP at #90, but Salazar is interesting. Knowing what I know about Kerman (spent plenty of time in Fresno), chances are Salazar doesn't come from a well-to-do family and turning down 3rd round slot money will probably be tough to do.

TheCrew posted some excellent articles about the chances of finding an impact pitcher among the top 100 picks; college RH tend to be more successful than HS RH (15% vs 11%), whereas lefties are about the same (HS - 15%, college - 14%). College players tend to be more mature (Lawrie) and engage in less risky behavior (Jeffress, Wilhelmson) that puts their professional career in jeopardy than HS players. While bats have changed in college recently and aren't as advantageous as the old aluminum ones were, not using wood bats in college forces college pitchers to pitch differently to offset that advantage and that change can add upside to college pitchers especially if they can add a 3rd/4th pitch. Some HS players you can't project, and they develop physically later or get better coaching that causes them to blossom in college (Strasburg - not drafted out of HS, no one had Rodon as a 1st round pick). I think though that the change in philosophy around 2005-06 about how many innings HS pitchers pitch their first 3-4 pro seasons will help improve the success rate of HS pitchers. Looking at how many innings/pitches Rogers, Jones, Gold, and especially Neugebauer threw their first full pro seasons (compared to Odorizzi) it's not surprising they got hurt.

If we can get Brentz, Salazar, Puk, or Crockett at #90 we'll be sitting good.