LouisEly

Mass, what were the rules and penalties at that time as to how that type of signing bonus would have affected the Brewers? People can criticize the Brewers for not ponying up to sign him, but the other 29 teams had 15 rounds to draft him and didn't. There must have been a reason for that.

Kentrail Davis is quietly having a very good year at Huntsville, sporting an OPS of .841 and an OBP >.400. Unfortunately he is struggling against LHP which is tempering my enthusiasm a bit, but the numbers against RHP are outstanding.

Well, of course I jinxed him with the HR comment, goes and gives one up yesterday to make me look bad.

I guess the good news is that they want to focus on the development of Hellweg, Pena, and Thornburg in the minors by going with Hand. Certainly didn't see Hand coming up. But I also wouldn't be surprised to see Hand sent back down after the game Monday and one of those three starters called up to make a spot start on Tuesday.

Yes, it is having top picks. Lincecum and Bumgarner were top 10 picks. And Buster Posey was the league MVP. The last two NL MVPs were top 5 picks. My point is that if the Brewers suck in two years, then they can get top picks, just like they did from 2003-2007, and build another playoff contender. The Giants haven't always been contenders. The Rays haven't always been contenders - they sucked for a decade.

Booze?

We saw flashes of the Fiers of old. Stranding a runner on 3B with no one out, striking out Snider and McCutchen and getting Jones to fly out. Getting guys to hit weak tappers off the end of the bat. The optimist (read: Fiers apologist) in me wants to believe that the Walker HR was due to being tired and not stretched out, and McCutchen's HR was three inches from being a double and stranded on 2B.

1) Every team has an aging roster. No one is from Ork. B) If you mean "old", Braun is 29, Segura is 23, Gomez is 27, Gallardo is 27, Peralta is 24, Estrada is 29, Lucroy is 27, Aoki is 31, Hart is 31, Henderson is 30. That's not old. 3) Yes, it happened to the Wings, the Cubs, and Boston. It also happened to the San Francisco Giants. They stunk, got four consecutive years of top 10 picks that they used to acquire the cornerstones of their franchise including young starting pitching (Lincecum, Bumgarner, Posey, Wheeler), coupled that with the face of the franchise (Cain), traded for some vets to fill some holes (Pence, Lopez, Scutaro)... oh yeah, and signed a couple of free agent starting pitchers well into their 30's (Vogelsong, Zito) and a couple of other free agents over 30 (Burrell, Huff). Won two World Series. And they did this while whiffing on three of their six first round picks in 2007 (and two of the other three have made the majors but only by default, projecting to be replacement level at best).

Unbelievable. Twice this year McCutcheon bounces one off the top of the fence for a HR. Six inches and he has two fewer HRs.

You can get away with throwing 95 straight provided you have one other plus pitch or two other pitches you can throw for strikes to keep hitters off balance. The problem Axford had was that he couldn't throw his curve for strikes, so hitters sat on the FB and crushed it. Now that he's finding the strike zone with his curve, he has a 3.38 ERA since April 16th. What is encouraging with Jungmann is that, excluding the start where he had the nerve problem and went on the DL immediately afterwards, he has only given up 1 HR in 38 IP. This likely has a lot to do with throwing a 2-seam instead of a 4-seam that is 3-4 MPH faster. As groundball pitchers get better defense behind them their runs allowed gets lower. As Jungmann gets better command of his secondary pitches, sneaking a 4-seamer back into his repertoire occasionally could make him a very effective pitcher and increase his K totals.

The Reds do a great job of identifying prospects, but their developmental approach - specifically rushing pitchers to the majors - is not something I want to replicate. Leake never got to develop his stuff, they spent a lot of money on Chapman for him to be stuck in the bullpen pitching 70 innings a year, and Ryan Wagner both never got to develop his stuff and was stuck in the bullpen. Bailey struggled for several years in the majors before finding his stuff, and it's a miracle he hasn't gotten hurt considering how many more pitches he threw as a 19-year-old than as an 18-year-old (the innings weren't bad, but factoring in as many walks and strikeouts as he had it was a lot more workload than the innings suggest). If they had taken their time with Chapman, Leake, and Wagner imagine what they would have...

Well, then we can be cell mates in the looney bin because I thought the same thing. The bad news is that if it was a cramp he would have been in a lot more pain and trying to massage it out.

1) Amen. B) Seconded. 3) There is a time and a place to rebuild a franchise and look 5 years down the road. A year after winning 96 games and having home field advantage in the LCS with the core of the team age 30 or younger is not that time. 4) Some people look at Tampa and think every organization can do or should do what they have done. If you look closely at their first round drafting over their history they have not drafted well in the first round at all, especially considering they had a decade of consecutive top 10 picks. Much of their success has come from guys drafted in the 4th round and later (Moore, Shields, Hellickson, Cobb, Joyce, Zobrist), and one of the best offensive players in their history and the best offensive player in their 2008 World Series year was a free agent signing (Pena). The year the Brewers got the #2 overall pick happened to be one of the weakest draft classes in recent history (3 of the 4 players picked after Weeks never made the majors). This is why I don't lament the loss of the 17th overall draft pick in a weak draft as crippling the future of the organization, especially when the team is a little over a year removed from a 96-win season with the core of the team age 30 and younger. (Speaking of losing draft picks, look at the career of the guy who the Gods of Pitcher Development, the Cardinals, drafted with the pick we gave them for signing Suppan.) If the Brewers had been a .500 team in 2011 as well, or if the core of the team was 33 and over, then I would agree that giving up draft picks is a bad idea and they should tear down and rebuild. But now is not that time. 6) Overall I think Melvin is doing a good job with what he has had to work with. He's not perfect, he's made moves I disagree with, but looking at where the org was after the 2002 season and taking that mess to the playoffs six years later and being in the LCS nine years later earns him a little leeway. 7) If there is a franchise in the state of Florida to model after, shouldn't it be the one that has two World Series titles? Go for broke, tear down and rebuild, then go for broke again?

If you invested millions of dollars of your own money into something you would probably be pretty emotional about that thing too. While the value of the franchise has very likely gone up since he bought it, you don't make or lose money on anything until you sell it. You don't get to where MA is without pride in what you do, and losing/not achieving your goals/vision hurts your pride. As an owner, MA should certainly have a say in things that impact attendance which is the major revenue driver of his business. Not control, but certainly a say.

Gennett isn't good enough to worry about his Arby clock.

[sarcasm]He was blocked by Scott Podsednik and Dave Krynzel.[/sarcasm] In another thread someone mentioned an additional reason for benching Weeks is to reduce the chances of him meeting his contract clause that guarantees his 2015 salary. This is the best reason I've seen yet for calling up Gennett. The Brewers will have to (should) release one of Gonzalez/Yuni (hopefully the former) when Hart comes back, so why not release that person now and give Gennett a 2-3 week trial to see what he has? Play the matchup game, most pitchers are RH so Gennett will get most of the starts. I don't think Gennett will be anything special, but he can't be worse than Gonzalez right now.

Thanks for sharing. This is an example of why the MLB draft is the biggest crap-shoot of all professional sports drafts. With 1200 players picked (30 players for 40 rounds), teams have to scout hundreds of players. There's no way they can watch more than a couple of games for all but their first and maybe second round picks. If a team sees a player on an off-night it may turn them off of a player, but if another team sees the same player on a good night they may draft him in the 10th round or higher. I'm curious as to how many teams have sent scouts to watch him on more than one occasion. Maybe... check that, hopefully... his performance in front of the crosschecker on 4/19 gets him drafted early. If teams are asking what it will take for him to sign, that's a pretty good sign...

We're all frustrated right now. Let's look at this objectively; with the exception of Weeks and to a lesser extent Axford, the players that have been signed to big contracts are not the problem (if you call Axford's one year $5M deal a "big contract", but the Brewers owe Axford that for his 2011 season when he made $442K). Lohse isn't the problem, Ramirez isn't the problem, Braun isn't the problem, Gomez isn't the problem, Gallardo has dropped off but hasn't been terrible, and a healthy Hart hasn't been the problem. It's been the young/inexperienced starting pitching (Estrada, Peralta, Burgos), Weeks, Lucroy, and the bench (Gonzalez/Maldonado/Schafer/Lalli/Davis). When Weeks signed his extension he was 28 years old coming off of back-to-back >.800 OPS season (3.7 WAR in 2010 and 1.9 WAR in only 37 games in 2009) - that's exactly the type of player you extend for four years. They traded Hardy, Escobar, and Cain for upgrades at those positions (Segura, Gomez) and Odorizzi for a year and a half rental of Grienke and two pitching prospects (Hellweg, Pena). Brantley was the only player traded for Sabathia that amounted to anything (an average CF), and the Brewers upgraded there. Melvin expected to get a 1st round pick if/when Sabathia left, but got screwed out of that (and potentially Mike Trout) by MLB's stupid rules. While the Brewers may have missed some opportunities in the first two rounds of the 2009 draft, those players would be rookies at best this season, more likely AAA. The people responsible for the drafts that should be yielding the core of the team (2008-2006 drafts) are gone; the Brewers missed opportunities in those drafts too. In essence, they have already gotten rid of part of the problem. I personally think Jack Z. was overrated. When the sum of the parts is greater than the whole you look at the coaching. That's what I see with the Brewers - the sum of the parts is greater than the whole. I don't know if it is RR or if it is Kranitz and Narron, but I think it is more the coaches (Kranitz, Narron, etc.) than RR or management.

This was in the IGT today - pretty much last across the board (ERA, Runs, ER, WHIP, HR, BA-A) right now Chicken and egg - are the players bad because of the coach, or are the players just bad?

You could look at it as "fixed", you could look at it as "karma"... Like Fondy said, I don't know if it is a blessing this year as they will have to pay $X for the #1 overall pick who might not be worth it compared to other years.

If the Brewers hadn't gone 36-23 last August and September with pretty much the same roster of players (except Hart, but no Wolf/Hernandez/Parra/Loe either) then I would probably agree with you. With Lohse stepping in for Marcum and Gorzelanny/Gonzalez/Badenhop replacing Hernandez/Parra/Loe the Brewers had as many reasons to think they could compete this year as reasons to think they couldn't. The value that Lohse brings is evident in today's game. If you have starters that can't make it to the 4th inning much less the 6th it puts a tremendous amount of stress on the bullpen. Someone has to pitch those innings - this isn't the 2001 All-Star game where one team can quit and end the game if you run out of pitchers - and if you keep trotting out your Livan Hernandez type below replacement level journeymen to mop up night after night after starters who can't get past the 3rd inning because you think that spending money on free agent pitching doesn't matter then fans are going to stop coming to the games and you won't have the revenue to sign international talent and/or extend the young players on the team. The Brewers are already ~120K fewer fans in attendance this year than last year. Factoring in tickets, food/beverage, merchandise, and parking at an average of $50/fan/game that's already $6M in less revenue right there. Fans may have already purchased tickets, but if they don't show up that is lost revenue for parking/concessions/merchandise (how much profit do you think they pull in per year selling 16 oz tap beers for $8/9 that costs them maybe 50 cents per cup). The Brewers are averaging 5,000 fewer fans per game this year - over the course of 81 home games at $50/fan/game that amounts to over $20,000,000 less revenue this year than last year. If having terrible starting pitching causes an additional 3000 fewer fans to attend each game that equals Lohse's salary of $12M. If the Brewers draw 2M fans this year instead of the 2.8M they did last year because of poor starting pitching, that's $40,000,000 less in revenue. The money to sign international talent and extend young talent comes from attendance and people who want to see a good product on the field. You're right in that a team needs to be wise in what players it invests in, but putting a poor product on the field can cost a team more in revenue than it can save.

What if the Yankees had drafted Cesar Carrillo, Mark Pawelek, Aaron Thompson, Craig Hansen, Jacob Marceaux, Matt Torra, Chaz Roe, Johnny Drennen, Ryan Tucker, Trevor Bell, Eli Org, Hank Sanchez, Luke Hochevar (who didn't sign that year), Beau Jones, Mark McCormick, Sean West, or Tyler Herron? Those first round draft picks that year didn't do a darn thing either. Being in contention for a playoff spot in late July and needing starting pitching and knowing that Lohse won't be a 3-month rental because he's signed for the next year? Being in contention for a playoff spot in August when Lohse can likely get through waivers and needing starting pitching? I'm not saying they can get the haul that they got for Greinke; but one of Segura or Hellweg (or even Pena the way he has pitched the last 3 weeks) is greater than any of the above mentioned 2005 1st round draft picks.

This never flies with me. So a draft class can be considered weak. That doesn't mean that you can't get a good player at 19 and with the lack of talent in our farm system, we need all the help we can get. We don't need to be signing pitchers in their mid 30s to 3 year deals with 8 figure salaries. Never? The 2005 draft class is considered to be the best in recent history, and the Yankees drafted a HS player at #17 overall who never made it to AA and was out of baseball by 2009. A first round draft pick is never guaranteed to add talent to an organization. What if the Brewers aren't in contention this year or next year and they trade Lohse for prospects at the 2014 deadline who are as good or better than the #17 overall pick? Will it be worth it then? Many prospects and comp picks were acquired for players who signed as free agents; you don't have to give up any talent to sign free agents.

Can someone please explain to me why Lucroy was set up off the plate for Dee Gordon's entire at-bat? It's no wonder Burgos walked him, that's where Lucroy was set up. Is that Lucroy's call or is that coming from the dugout? The guy's hitting under the Mendoza line with the pitcher up next - set up on the plate and make him hit it!

I'll phrase my response a little differently. This is only one part of the equation. Bad starting pitching puts stress on other parts of the team, particularly the bullpen. While you can argue that the Brewers don't have a lot of young future stars in the bullpen to protect against burnout or injury, if an increased stress on the bullpen causes some of the relievers to get hurt then it puts the Brewers in a situation where they may have to call up the young guys before they are ready which may hurt their development or cause them to get hurt, which could hurt the franchise just as much if not more than losing a first round draft pick. You're right in the sense that the only difference it may have made in their record is that they may have lost the 4/17 game against the Giants instead of winning it. And if this were a year where the draft was deep and talented, especially in high-upside pitching, I might agree with you. But this is regarded as a weak draft class, and when the Brewers signed Lohse they had no idea Ramirez would get hurt and Weeks/Lucroy/Maldonado/Gonzalez and to an extent Peralta would be as bad as they were.